2024 Canadian GP Raceday Update & Tips – JP
2024 Canadian GP Raceday Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Canadian GP Raceday preview. James correctly predicted that Ricciardo would beat Tsunoda in his qualifying preview. That got us off the mark for the weekend, hopefully we can finish off strong.
2024 Canadian GP Raceday Update
Qualifying didn’t go well for our bets. The wrong Mercedes driver got pole, the rain arrived too late to give Stroll any chance, but at least Riccardo beat Tsunoda.
In terms of the ante post bets, it was not good. We have backed the Ferraris for today’s race and they failed to get out of Q2, and line up on the sixth row, eleventh and twelfth.
That is a sign that the car was just shit. It was slow in FP3 and reproduced that in qualifying. Needless to say, they are cooked now, unless we get a crazy, rain affected lottery of a race.
Dead Heat
Qualifying was remarkable for producing two drivers who clocked exactly the same time, to the nearest one thousandth of a second. George Russell and Verstappen both had a time of one minute and twelve seconds exactly. Russell set his time first and the rules say that means he starts from pole position.
Lando Norris was just 0.021 seconds behind in third place, so we nearly got a repeat of the 1997 European GP when Schumacher, Villeneuve and Frentzen all set exactly the same time in qualifying.
That little fact of setting the time first may be the difference between winning and losing the GP. The pole position driver has won six of the last seven Canadian GPs. Russell was perhaps a little lucky that he got a bit of a tow down the long final straight. That gave him enough extra pace to set his time that got him pole position.
Unfamiliar Territory
Russell has been on pole position just once in his F1 career, the 2022 Hungarian GP, in which he finished third. He is not exactly used to starting at the front, and he doesn’t have the fastest car, or at least a car with a handy pace advantage.
Hamilton was fastest in FP3, Russell joint fastest in qualifying, the only two sessions not influenced by rain. Max Verstappen was second fastest in FP3 and joint fastest in qualifying. The two McLarens start third and fourth and they have the pace to be in the mix. The rest of the field probably need the weather to mix things up.
Previous Winners
Since 2000, there have been two winners who started seventh and two from sixth place. Max Verstappen may be disappointed to read that the driver starting from second place has only won five of the last twenty one races here. Of those last twenty one, the pole sitter has won eleven, but the recent trend has been for the pole sitter to win.
Of course, since 2014, we have had two teams largely dominating. Mercedes had a very dominant car from 2014 to 2020 and won four times in that period. Red Bull have dominated since 2021 (there was no race in 2021), and Verstappen won in 2022 and 2023.
Vettel won for Ferrari in 2018 and with Ricciardo winning for Red Bull in 2014, Vettel is the only non Red Bull or Mercedes driver to win here in the turbo hybrid era.
McLaren Anniversary
Can McLaren buck that trend? It would be a poignant win as today marks the anniversary of the team’s first ever GP win, when Bruce McLaren won the 1968 Belgian GP. A sign from the racing gods? Maybe, but this race has only been won once from third place this century.
McLaren have won a race already in 2024 and have been either first or second in the last four races, so they are right in this. McLaren also have both cars in the top four and can use that strategically.
Mercedes have Hamilton back in seventh, while Verstappen’s wing man is languishing back in a lowly sixteenth place. Advantage McLaren in that respect, but they do have a dreadful record in Montreal, not scoring a point since Magnussen’s ninth place back in 2014. If they do win here, it will be very much against the trends, but not against recent form, which is more important.
Faltering Ferrari
What happened to Ferrari? I wasn’t alone in thinking that they were in with a very good chance of winning this weekend, but their pace just evaporated as quickly as rain on hot tarmac. The car lacked grip in the dry conditions and they will have to hope that the tyres will give up more grip on long runs, or that it rains. It is just a matter of damage limitation for them now.
The Weather Forecast
The threat of rain did not materialise for yesterday’s qualifying session, and that is the nature of showery weather, it is very hit and miss and hard to predict for a relatively small piece of real estate.
The chance of rain today is put at 84%. The day is set to be cloudy, a peak temperature of 18 degrees. The race starts at 2pm local time and the forecast for that time is cloudy with a 51% chance of a thunderstorm.
The chance of rain falls to 44% by the end of the race. That doesn’t really help. It is a bit of a coin toss forecast, and of course, it could be raining on one side of the river, but not the other. It has been raining in the build up to the race, so we will have a green track, and perhaps a wet one.
Wet Setups
It seems like almost all of the teams have set their cars up with a possible wet race in mind. The exceptions may be Williams and Visa RB. Both were very fast through the speed traps, which suggests a bit less wing on the car.
The Visa RB has been good on the straights all season, so maybe they are in decent shape, wet or dry. Stroll was fastest in that respect, but the Aston also looked very good in the wet, so they may just have a good car for this track, wet or dry. Russell was fourth quickest through the speed trap, notably faster than Hamilton, but Russell did get a tow.
2024 Canadian GP Raceday Summary
Past form here suggests that Russell should be around evens to win but he is the 5.00 second favourite. Max Verstappen is still the odds on favourite at 1.83.
Six of the eight races in 2024 have been won from pole, the exceptions being Carlos Sainz in Australia, a race where Verstappen retired, and Lando Norris in Miami where Verstappen finished second. Norris did get a bit lucky with a safety car there, but there was no disputing the cars pace.
Things have changed in the last few races. Red Bull have been less than perfect and Verstappen has not looked entirely comfortable this weekend. The car is thereabouts on pace, but he doesn’t have spare pace in his pocket. If he wins, Verstappen is going to have to work hard for it. He certainly does not look like an odds on shot to me.
Value
Russell and Norris make the most appeal from a value point of view. Russell has the advantage of starting from pole position, which means he should get into the tricky first corners first, keeping out of the trouble which can kick off there. It is only a short run into the slow, ninety degrees left hander, followed by the slower second right hander.
The bumping and barging can continue through three and four and six and seven. Get through those unscathed, and you should be fine, but those drivers in the pack are in danger of getting a knock.
Russell can be a bit aggressive when defending and his lack of pole position experience is a worry. Verstappen is likely to give him room, however, he is playing the long game and is more interested in extending his lead over Leclerc and Norris.
Norris Makes Appeal
Lando Norris makes plenty of appeal, despite McLaren’s poor track record. He has finished on the podium in half of the races in 2024, has won one and been second three times. The car is proven over race distances and he was so close to getting the win in Imola, getting more life out of his tyres than Verstappen. Norris is in great form and confident.
Russell might still have a few doubts in his head, after all he has not finished higher than fifth this season. If you fancy Russell, you have to feel sure that the upgrades on the Mercedes really have propelled them to the top again.
However, this has been a strange weekend weather wise, running has been limited on a very green track. I think we will learn much more about Mercedes when we get to Barcelona.
Verstappen represents poor value in my book. Red Bull are having a wobble and are not the same dominant outfit that won four of the first five races. That is not to say Verstappen won’t win, just that his chances are not as good as the odds suggest.
2024 Canadian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point e/w Lando Norris to win @ 6.50 with Skybet
We are on Carlos Sainz for a podium and that has gone out the window, as has the Leclerc to win bet. Oscar Piastri makes some appeal at 2.25 but I’ll leave that market alone.
The top six market has a few interesting contenders. Daniel Ricciardo starts fifth and can be backed at 4.50 to remain in the top six come the end of the race. He has Alonso and Hamilton behind him.
Alonso doesn’t hang about at the start and the Mercedes looks to be a faster car than both the Visa RB and Aston Martin. Alonso is 2.75 for a top 6, but he has only had two this season, and none in the last four.
Hamilton has an upgraded car this weekend and has finished 6/6/7 in the last three races. He has a great track record, loves this circuit and should be able to move forward. Sadly his best odds for a top 6 are just 1.45.
Riccardo did a great job to hold off Carlos Sainz for a fourth place finish in the Miami Sprint race, so he can make himself hard to pass and has great top speed. However, over an entire Grand Prix distance? Not quite for me.
Tsunoda On Track
We have backed Tsunoda for a top 10 and he starts from eighth place. On his other two starts from eighth place in 2024, he has finished eighth. He can still be backed at 1.83. That will be because it is expected that the Ferraris will move up the order, but the Visa RB will be a tough car to get past with its great top speed.
Lance Stroll is 1.80 for a top 10 finish. He has done exactly that in four of his five races here. He qualified ninth, his joint best of the year so far. The other time was in Australia and he finished that in seventh place, albeit with help from race attrition.
Stroll’s grid position for his four top 10 finishes were 17th (x3) and 16th. Starting from ninth looks like a walk in the park by comparison. He is in the middle of the pack which makes the first lap tricky, but the car is very quick on the straights and good in the wet, so he looks to have a decent chance if he survives that first lap.
2024 Canadian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Lance Stroll to finish in the points @ 1.80 with Ladbrokes, BET365
The final bet is a small speculative one on Fastest lap, that holy grail of F1 betting, and a bugger to get right.
Lewis Hamilton is a track specialist and is in a car that has set the fastest lap in the last two races in 2024, Russell in Imola, Hamilton in Monaco. The last three fastest laps this season have been set by drivers starting sixth or seventh, and three by drivers who finished seventh. It is not just about the drivers at the front.
Alonso makes some appeal as the Aston looks quick in the wet, and very fast on the straights in the dry. Alonso got the fastest lap in China. It is a bit of a lottery bet but I’ll split my stakes across the two drivers at reasonable odds. Both have set fastest laps this season and both have been fastest in one session this weekend.
