2024 Cheltenham & Doncaster Saturday Tips – DS
2024 Cheltenham & Doncaster Saturday Preview
Gowran Park didn’t to plan on Thursday. Derridae and Street Value both pulled up and while Summerville Boy finished second, we missed out on place money due to a non runner reducing the field to four. This weekend we have Trials Day at Cheltenham and three races from Donny, check out Dave Stevos’ 2024 Cheltenham & Doncaster Saturday tips below.
1.15 Cheltenham – Paddy Power Handicap Chase (Premier)
The ground at Cheltenham on Saturday won’t be anywhere near as bad as it was at Gowran Park. Currently good to soft, soft in places, with no rain forecast it will likely be good to soft all over by tomorrow.
Connections of Straw Fan Jack will be delighted with the conditions. Sheila Lewis trains this 9yo son of Geordieland and he is having just his third start in handicap company over fences. The first one came at Ffos Las (16f gd) off 128 on his opening run of last season and he hacked up by 7.5L.
Hot Novice Chase
Then came the run that makes him of interest today. In a hot Class 2 Novice chase at Cheltenham (16f gd) he beat Ash Tree Meadow (subsequent Galway Plate winner off 145, now rated 150) and the late Sole Pretender (since winner of a Listed handicap chase off 146). Straw Fan Jack races off 137 today.
Back in March Straw Fan Jack ran fourth of nine in the Arkle. He was well beaten but he was in the process of running a big race upped to 20f at Aintree in the G1 Manifesto Chase next time when making a bad mistake two out. He wasn’t going to win but he definitely could have finished closer than the 12L he finished behind Banbridge.
This season he has had just two runs, both over 21f at Ascot. He was beaten by wide margins in both races but I’m not sure going right handed suits him. The handicapper dropped him from 142 to 137 after those efforts and he now returns to a left handed track. If he runs to the same level as when beating Ash Tree Meadow here six starts ago Straw Fan Jack can outrun his odds of 25/1.
2024 Cheltenham & Doncaster Saturday Tip: Straw Fan Jack e/w @ 25/1 (4 places) NB
1.50 Cheltenham – Cotswold Chase (Grade 2)
Only six run in this Grade 2 chase and not one of them is bigger than 8/1. Stay Away Fay is the up and comer and he lowered the colours of Giovinco at Sandown last time out (24f sft). He won the Albert Bartlett here last year and he acts on good and soft ground. It’ll be fascinating to see how he handles the step up from novice company.
Royal Pagaille hacked up in the Betfair Chase at Haydock last time (25.5f sft). That run sets the standard but the ground has to rate as a worry. Venetia Williams’ 10yo has never won on good to soft ground in five previous attempts.
The Real Whacker is the 9/2 third fav and he showed a bit more enthusiasm at Kempton in the King George after a shocking reappearance run. He likes it here but he is unlikely to be able to dominate from the front with Stay Away Fay and Ahoy Senor in the field.
Ahoy Senor has failed to complete three of his last four starts. His last win came in this race last year on soft ground but it is difficult to be confident of a repeat performance. Datsalrightgino and Capodanno are no mugs and the Mullins horse could be a threat on this nice ground. However, his odds off 8/1 aren’t big enough to tempt. No bet.
2024 Cheltenham & Doncaster Saturday Tip: No Bet
2.05 Doncaster – Yorkshire Rose Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 2)
We’ll be racing on good ground at Donny on Saturday. First up is this G2 for the Mares but again, it is a small field. Willie Mullins runs two and they head the betting. Ashroe Diamond is the 6/4 fav with Patrick on board and Danny rides the 2/1 second favourite Gala Marceau.
They are well clear on ratings and both Under Control and Say Goodbye have a bit to find on the figures. The Henderson horse has had a wind op since her last run at Newbury so she is probably best watched.
Say Goodbye gets weight from the two Irish raiders and she could sneak some black type. However, with just two places on offer the percentage call is to sit this race out too. No bet.
2024 Cheltenham & Doncaster Saturday Tip: No Bet
2.25 Cheltenham – Clarence House Chase (Grade 1)
This rearranged Clarence House Chase is missing one of its original main protagonists. We were all looking forward to El Fabiolo vs Jonbon but unfortunately, the Mullins horse has stayed at home. That leaves a field of just five and Jonbon is an extremely warm order at 1/3. He is going to be hard to beat.
Editeur Du Gite likes it here and he bounced back to form last time at Kempton. He won this race last year (when it was also run here) and if any horse is going to put it up to Jonbon it’ll most likely be Gary Moore’s charge.
Ground To Suit
If the ground continues to dry out it’ll suit Nube Negra. The last two times he had good in the description he finished 3L second behind Editeur Du Gite at Kempton and he won the Shloer Chase over today’s C&D. Dan Skelton’s charge has form figures of 1131 on good ground over fences and on good to soft they read 12242.
His last two runs at Cheltenham on decent ground resulted in victory. His last run on good to soft there was a superb 2nd in the 2021 Champion Chase. He does have 3L to find with Editeur Du Gite on their meeting at Kempton but I don’t think that’s an impossible task. He is certainly capable of beating Fugitif and Elixir Du Nutz and I think Nube Negra’s odds of 18/1 are big enough to warrant a small e/w bet.
2024 Cheltenham & Doncaster Saturday Tip: Nube Negra e/w @ 18/1
2.40 Doncaster – River Don Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)
Finally, a decent sized field. Ten will run in this year’s River Don, a 24.5f Grade 2 hurdle. Two 130 rated horses head the betting. The less exposed one is Welcom To Cartries and he is 5/2. A P2P winner, he was beat a head on debut at Ascot (19f gd) before getting off the mark upped to 21f in another maiden hurdle at the same track.
His form isn’t overly strong but Paul Nicholls likes him a lot and he has compared him to Stay Away Fay. He has already won a P2P over 3 miles so he should stay, although it is slightly worrying that his three winning half siblings and his dam have never won at further than 2m 6f.
Experienced
Destroytheevidence has already won at 24f under rules. He has a lot more experience than his main market rival and he has already got placed Grade 2 form in the book. Welcom To Cartries probably has a ‘sexier’ profile but Kim Bailey’s horse has the best form in the race. If I were pricing this race up I’d probably make him the favourite. 4/1 about the son of Kayf Tara is a very fair price.
I Love My Baie also has placed graded form but he was beaten 14L into third in that race at Haydock. He has since landed an Ayr Novice by 7L but that was a pretty ordinary four runner affair.
On pedigree he looks well worth trying over this sort of distance. His full brother Hermes Baie beat Klassical Dream over 25f in an Auteuil G1 in 2022. All his best form is on soft ground though and it remains to be seen if Steven Crawford’s charge will be effective at this level on good ground.
Irish Raider
The only outsider that makes any appeal is Dripsey Moon. Trained by John McConnell, this 7yo son of Let The Lion Roar was well beaten in a G2 at Limerick on Stephen’s Day. However, the heavy ground that day probably didn’t suit and he had previously run well in two rules starts on good to soft.
At Perth he landed a 21f maiden hurdle back in August. Then he turned up in a Kelso Novice in October and was beat 3.75L into second by Cadell. That horse went on to finish 0.75L behind Kerryhill next time, to whom he was conceding 7lbs.
Dripsey Moon was giving Cadell 4lbs at Kelso so it could be argued that McConnell’s charge is overpriced at 14/1 in comparison to Kerryhill at 17/2 on those two pieces of form. This ground will suit much better than the mud at Limerick and John McConnell’s horses are starting to find a bit of form. At odds of 14/1, he is the e/w selection.
2024 Cheltenham & Doncaster Saturday Tip: Dripsey Moon e/w @ 14/1
3.00 Cheltenham – Unibet Hurdle (Grade 2)
Just five run here and Lossiemouth is odds on to win on her seasonal return. Trip, track and ground look ideal and Paul Townend rides. Love Envoi is a quality operator on her day and she has had the benefit of a run. She found just Honeysuckle too good on her last visit to Cheltenham and it wouldn’t’ surprise me if she turns over the Mullins’ hotpot.
Rubaud is a nice horse and he will be making his Cheltenham debut. He has won at Ayr but the majority of his best form is on right handed tracks. The fact that Nicholls hasn’t run him here after 18 starts has to rate as a bit of a concern for his supporters. The other two look to be making up the numbers and this looks likely to be dominated by the market principals. No bet.
2024 Cheltenham & Doncaster Saturday Tip: No Bet
3.15 Doncaster – Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase (Premier)
We backed Charlie Uberalles in the Welsh National. My hope was he’d handle the desperate conditions but unfortunately, he didn’t and was pulled up. The ground is going to be much more to his liking in this contest and I am going to give him one more chance.
Unlike at Chepstow, where he was wrong at the weights, the son of Geordieland runs off his correct chase mark of 122 today. That is just 1lb higher than he was when beating Lord Napier and Ballyandy by over 2L at Perth on his final run of 2022. Gevrey was 5.75L back in fourth so it was a pretty decent race.
Dianne Sayer gave him a spin over hurdles on his comeback at Kelso and he ran okay on the good to soft ground. As I mentioned earlier, the ground was a valid excuse last time and this flat track should suit better too. He isn’t one to be lumping on but off just a pound higher than his last winning mark, Charlie Uberalles is worth chancing for small stakes e/w at odds of 66/1.
2024 Cheltenham & Doncaster Saturday Tip: Charlie Uberalles e/w @ 66/1 (6 places)
3.35 Cheltenham – Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2)
At first glance you would nearly think this was a veterans’ race. The top four in the betting have a combined age of 44. The 12yo Paisley Park is the current favourite at around 11/4. He has just failed on his last two starts, beat a head by Dashel Drasher and a short head by Crambo. The old boy is clearly still loving the game and it would be a heartwarming result if he manages to win.
Former Grand National winner Noble Yeats is the 4/1 second fav. He shaped nicely over 20f at Limerick last month and this trip will suit better. All roads surely lead back to Aintree for him though and I doubt connections will want him to have a hard race here.
Warrior
Dashel Drasher is 9/2 and the 11yo is an absolute warrior. Runner up in the Stayers’ Hurdle last year, he beat Paisley Park at Newbury in December and then finished third behind him and Crambo at Ascot last time. He’ll make his usual bold bid from the front and whatever happens, he’ll go out on his shield.
Champ is another 12yo and he ran well behind Paisley Park and Dashel Drasher last time. It was his first run after a wind op so there is every chance he could improve for that outing. However, there is also a chance that he is on the downgrade and odds of 11/2 do not make much appeal.
Best of The Rest
Of the remainder, Strong Leader is the dark horse in here. Trained by Olly Murphy, he shaped nicely in a G2 behind Blueking D’Oroux at Ascot in November (19f gd). He flopped at this track last time out over 20f behind Bob Olinger but heavy ground was a valid excuse.
We backed this fella last year in a G1 Novice at Aintree (16f gd/sft) and he ran a massive race, staying on strongly to get second. It looked like he wanted further that day and his Ascot run in November also suggested that he might get this sort of trip.
His pedigree suggests 3 miles could suit too. He’s by Passing Glance, the same sire as Dashel Drasher, and his dam is a half to two 24f+ winners, including Hennessey Gold Cup hero Strong Flow. It’s about time that another younger horse emerged as a proper contender in this staying division, hopefully Strong Leader can give the old boys something to think about at odds of 10/1.
