2024 Cheltenham & Musselburgh New Year’s Day -DS
2024 Cheltenham & Musselburgh New Year’s Day
Things didn’t go to plan on Saturday. Notachance and Farnoge both ran absolute stinkers and Neon Moon is obviously being targeted at something else. Jaminska did run a solid race for us but unfortunately, she had to settle for third. We start off a new year with action from Jumps’ HQ and Scotland, check out Dave Stevos’ 2024 Cheltenham & Musselburgh New Year’s Day preview below.
12.55 Cheltenham – Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (Class 3)
Well first of all, a very happy new year to you all. I’m delighted to see the back of 2023 for a variety of reasons and let’s hope for a much better year in 2024. The first live race of the new year is a £25k handicap chase and only five will run. The ground is heavy at Cheltenham but even so, the turnouts for some of the races today are shocking.
Only five were declared for this race and four of them are chalked up at 9/2 or shorter. It is hard to see past the market leaders and not even I can make a case for the 150/1 outsider Full of Light. Unfortunately, 2024 begins with a no bet race.
2024 Cheltenham & Musselburgh Tip: No Bet
1.10 Musselburgh – Hogmaneigh Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
Last year, Benson absolutely hosed up in this race off 128. He then followed up at Kelso over 16f off 134 and he is only 2lbs higher than he was that day today. Sandy Thomson had a pretty quiet start to the season by his standards but his horses have definitely been running better the last couple of weeks. I’d imagine this is almost certainly his first main target for this season and he could be hard to beat.
The Southern raiders In This World (5/2) and Afadil (9/2) head the market. The fav shaped well at Cheltenham last time (17f sft) and he gave the impression that this sort of trip was worth another go.
Afadil plundered a race at the Scottish Grand National meeting in April at Ayr (16f gd/sft) off 122. He also won a Listed 4yo hurdle at this track in February (16f gd) so the Scottish air clearly brings out the best in him. With Freddie Gingell’s claim he is effectively 2lbs lower here. However, 20f on soft ground is an unknown for him and his best form by far is on better ground than this.
Ground Concerns
Soft ground has to rate as a concern for both of those horses and at bigger odds, Holmes St Georges could go well. The 7yo was runner up to Benson in this last year off a mark of 119. He is 5lbs higher now but with Ben Bromley’s claim, Steven Crawford’s charge is effectively in off the same mark.
He’ll be getting 19lbs from Benson this year, compared to 9lbs last year. That should enable him to close the 11 length gap considerably. Soft ground is fine, as is the trip, and he has form figures of 12 at Musselburgh. Hopefully he just needed his last run fitness wise and if he has tightened up physically for it, Holmes St Georges can hopefully hit the frame at odds of 14/1.
2024 Cheltenham & Musselburgh Tip: Holmes St Georges e/w @ 14/1 (3 places)
1.30 Cheltenham – Paddy Power Handicap Chase (Class 2)
Five runners in a £50k handicap chase at Cheltenham. Another race that makes zero appeal from an e/w betting perspective. No Bet.
2024 Cheltenham & Musselburgh Tip: No Bet
2.05 Cheltenham – New Year’s Day Handicap Chase (Premier)
If you thought the turnout for the last race was bad, six runners for a £100k race is arguably even worse. Grade 1 winner Stage Star carries 12 stone and he is the even money favourite. He’s 11lbs higher than when beating Notlongtillmay here back in November. That was on soft ground but this will be his first run on heavy. He’s a class apart from the rest of these so if he handles the ground, he should win.
The biggest danger looks to be Richmond Lake. He is guaranteed to go on this surface and he absolutely hosed up at Aintree three weeks ago on heavy (20f). He has now won four on the spin and it remains to be seen where his limitations lie but he is only a 9/2 shot. It is hard to make a case for anything else at bigger odds so we’ll just watch this one. No bet.
2024 Cheltenham & Musselburgh Tip: No bet
2.20 Musselburgh – Auld Reekie Handicap Chase (Class 2)
The one I like here at a half decent price is the top weight, Fidelio Vallis. Trained by Harry Derham, this ex Paul Nicholls horse has unfinished business at Musselburgh. He has run here twice since changing yards.
On his first start for Derham back in February he was beat 4L over 16f (gd/sft) off 139. Then, after a nine month break he made his reappearance here, again over 16f (gd/sft) and he finished 2nd again, beat 4.75L off 141.
Up In Trip
Derham stepped the 8yo son of Saint des Saints back up in trip at Ascot last time. He got a bit tired on the run in but it was still a decent effort off 141. Dropping back a furlong in trip on a less testing track should suit him. Alice Stevens had a sighter on him at Ascot and she takes off 5lbs today.
That means that Fidelio Vallis is effectively in off 135 here, 6lbs lower than he was when second on his seasonal reappearance. We know this track suits and given that two of his last three starts have been at Musselburgh, maybe his owner has connections to the track.
He has won and placed on soft before so the ground should be ok and Harry Derham has had five winners and three places from his last fifteen runners. At odds of 14/1, hopefully Fidelio Vallis gives him another winner today.
2024 Cheltenham & Musselburgh Tip: Fidelio Vallis e/w @ 14/1 NAP
2.40 Cheltenham – Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
My Bobby Dazzler is interesting at odds of 22/1 for Mel Rowley and Charlie Deutsch. This 9yo son of Malinas has been a grand servant for connections. He has won four races under rules for Rowley, including three at Aintree. One of those wins came on soft, as did his excellent effort in this race in 2022.
He was beat 6L into 4th on that occasion off a mark of 132. He is now back for a repeat bid off 119, 13lbs lower than his 2022 run and 1lb lower than he was for his last win in a handicap chase at Worcester in June.
Nice Break
My Bobby Dazzler was given a nice break after that chase win and he’s had a couple of runs since at Newbury (23.5f gd/sft) where he was well beat and then four weeks ago at Ludlow (25f sft) where he ran much better behind Hidden Heroics.
On his last hurdles run he was beat 11l into third in a valuable handicap at Cartmel back in April off 121. He had previously finished 2nd and 4th in similar races at Haydock and Chepstow so he is definitely capable of being competitive off today’s mark of 119.
He has been fourth on his last two visits to Prestbury Park, off 118 and 132. Heavy ground is the unknown but he has won and run well on soft more than once. So, at odds of 22/1, it is worth taking the chance that he’ll handle it.
2024 Cheltenham & Musselburgh Tip: My Bobby Dazzler e/w @ 22/1 NB
3.15 Cheltenham – Relkeel Hurdle (Grade 2)
Another pitifully sized field with just four runners. Brewinupastorm would appeal e/w if we had five in here as he is proven on this ground. However, it is win only and that’s enough for me to give it a wide berth. No bet.
