2024 Curragh Irish Derby Meeting Preview – DS
2024 Curragh Irish Derby Meeting Preview
We managed to land a place at 16/1 with Pons Aelius at Newcastle yesterday. There wasn’t a washer for Ja’marr and it looked like a learning day for him but he was only a length off fourth. We’ve backed worse 100/1 shots than him. The rain came at the Curragh on Saturday so hopefully, waiting a bit longer to do the preview pays dividends. Dave’s 2024 Curragh Irish Derby Meeting tips are below.
1.40 – Railway Stakes (Group 2)
Nothing appealed in the opener so we start off in this 7F Group 2 for the 2yos. Unfortunately, only seven run and ground with soft in the description is an unknown for five of them. Arizona Blaze has won here over 5f on heavy in a maiden and then he followed that with an excellent run on soft in Listed company. His last two runs, career bests, have come on quick ground but we at least know he handles cut.
The Strikin Viking has only run once and that resulted in an emphatic win on good to soft at York. That form is untested but he did it well and Kevin Ryan wouldn’t just be coming over for the day out. The two market leaders are trained by Aidan O’Brien and both are unraced on soft. On pedigree, I think Henri Matisse has a better chance of handling it as he is out of a Pivotal mare.
Red Evolution is possibly a shade overpriced on his debut run behind Henri Matisse. The ground is a worry for him too though and with just seven runners, the percentage call is to leave him, and this race, well alone. No bet.
2024 Curragh Irish Derby Meeting Tip: No Bet
2.15 – Dash Stakes (Listed)
Ano Syra almost won the Greenlands for us at huge odds but that was on fast ground. There’s not chance I’d be backing her at 7/2 on this rain sodden surface. Commanche Falls is another old friend of the blog and he won’t mind if it is soft but if it turns heavy, that would be a worry.
The only one I can make a case for at a half decent price here is Jakajaro. By Too Darn Hot, this 3yo is trained by Ja’marr’s handler, David Marnane. He’s run really well in stakes company on his last three starts.
He was only beat 3L behind Jasour when third at Royal Ascot on easy ground back in May. At Naas two weeks later he finished a decent fifth, beat 2.75L behind Bucanero Fuerte in a 6f G3 on good ground. Then, last time out, he was beaten 3.5L into third in a Listed heat at Cork by Clarendon House over 5f.
The step back up to 6f today should suit him well. His sole start at this track at that trip on soft resulted in a wide margin handicap win off 74 and while this is clearly a much tougher race, I think his last three runs have proved he belongs at this level. At odds of 10/1, Jakajaro is the e/w selection.
2024 Curragh Irish Derby Meeting Tip: Jakajaro e/w @ 10/1 (3 places)
2.50 – Rockingham Handicap (Premier)
Sturlasson is the clear form pick in this year’s Rockingham. The speedy 3yo son of Invincible Army somewhat lost his way last season after a horrible incident in the stalls here last May. However, Kieran Cotter has managed to restore his confidence and he absolutely hosed up in a Navan maiden last month (5f gd) on his second start of the season.
A brilliant run in the Epsom Dash followed off a mark of 89 and the horse that beat him by 0.5L (to whom he was conceding 1lb) ran second in a hot Royal Ascot handicap next time off 94 and is now rated 98. On that collateral form, Sturlasson still looks well handicapped off 92 and he’s the one to beat with Oisin Murphy booked for the ride. He acts on soft.
At A Price
Big Gossey ran fourth in this last year off 100 and he is back for another go off 2lbs lower. This horse owes us nothing. It feels like a lifetime ago since we backed him to win the Bold Lad at 33/1 back in 2021 and since then, he has been some stalwart for his connections.
His last handicap win came over 6f here last September off a mark of 98 when he won the Bold Lad for a ssecond time. He is back down to that mark again after five runs in stakes company this season and he now returns to calmer handicap waters.
Charles O’Brien’s stable star goes on any ground, he should get a strong pace to aim at and Gary Carroll gets the leg up for the first time. He might struggle to give the guts of a stone in weight to Sturlasson but at odds of 20/1, hopefully he can hit the frame.
2024 Curragh Irish Derby Meeting Tip: Big Gossey e/w @ 20/1 (5 places)
3.25 – Celebration Stakes (Listed)
In the hope that the return to a softer surface and drop back to a mile sparks a revival, Norwalk Havoc is the e/w pick here. Trained by Jessie Harrington, Dusty Foley will ride and this son of Showcasing has rock solid form on softer than good.
It was good ground last time when he ran his first poor race of the season when beat 7L here over 10F in a G3. However, prior to that he ran a cracker behind Bright Stripes on soft over this C&D in a Listed heat and he had Ecureuil Secret a length behind him, form that was boosted here on Saturday.
Norwalk Havoc’s form figures on good ground read 66. On soft/heavy they read 112 so clearly, he enjoys getting his toe in. The rain has come at the right time for Harrington’s charge so he is the e/w selection at odds of 14/1.
2024 Curragh Irish Derby Meeting Tip: Norwalk Havoc e/w @ 14/1
4.05 – Irish Derby (Group 1)
As each year passes, the Irish Derby becomes less and less relevant. Over two decades of Ballydoyle dominance hasn’t helped matters. Aidan O’Brien has won it fifteen times and he won it again last year with Auguste Rodin after two successive years of UK raiders plundering the prize.
This year, ‘the lads’ run four. Not for their own benefit, they say, but for the benefit of each way punters and the World Pool. If you believe that, you’ll believe anything!
Even with four Ballydoyle contenders, they don’t have the favourite. Ambiente Friendly, second to 16.1 hands high City of Troy at Epsom, has been put in as the 6/4 market leader. James Fanshawe’s son of Gleneagles has soft ground form in the book and on the evidence of Epsom, he should be too good for Los Angeles. They look most likely to be the first two home.
Unknown Quantity
The potential fly in the ointment could be Roger Varian’s Matsuri. He is unlucky not to be coming into this an unbeaten horse. After a short head defeat on debut at Salisbury last October (8f sft) he shed the maiden tag a month later at Kempton over the same distance. His sole run this season came last month at Leicester and he absolutely hosed up in that 10f (gd/sft) novice. He’s by the right sire in Sea The Stars and it’ll be fascinating to see how he fares.
However, he’s single figure odds so instead, we’ll take a chance on Sunway. Trained by David Menuisier, Oisin Murphy retains the ride aboard this son of Galiway. He ran well in the French Derby four weeks ago, shaping as though in need of further. He gets an extra two furlongs here and he has already won a G1 on soft ground, the Criterium at Saint Cloud last season (8f).
Sunway is a full brother to Champion Stakes (10f) winner Sealiway. We backed that horse when he was fifth in the Arc two years ago and he stayed on well behind Torquator Tasso. I am hoping that the step up to 12f works the oracle for Sunway and he won’t mind the rain, so at odds of 20/1, he is the e/w selection.
2024 Curragh Irish Derby Meeting Tip: Sunway e/w @ 20/1
4.40 – Derby Festival Handicap (Premier)
On her second handicap start, maybe Concluding Call can go well here for McCreery and Crosse. This daughter of Holy Roman Emperor is unexposed in comparison to a lot of her rivals. The 4yo never made the track at 2yo but she has shaped well on every run since making a nice debut at Dundalk last November.
Her third run came over this C&D on heavy ground back in April. She ran a fine race to finish fourth, 4.5L behind State Actor who is now rated 95. Concluding Call got off the mark in a Navan maiden two weeks later this time on yielding ground. That was a weak race but she could do no more than beat what was in front of her.
She was sent off the 7/2 fav on her handicap debut off a mark of 78 at Leopardstown (9f yld). She could only finish sixth but she still looked a bit green and she was only beat 5L for the win in sixth. I’d imagine she’ll have learned a lot from that first handicap and she races off the same mark here. The drop back in trip and softer ground both give reasons for optimism and at odds of 18/1, Concluding Call is the e/w selection.
2024 Curragh Irish Derby Meeting Tip: Concluding Call e/w @ 18/1 (4 places) NAP
5.15 – Summer Fillies Handicap (Premier)
Sometimes when researching races, you see a stat that simply cannot be ignored. If you had a pound win on every horse that Nathan Crosse has ridden for Jessica Harrington in Ireland, you’d be up over £150. He’s ridden 19 winners from 157 rides for Jessie, and one of those wins came on this filly at 22/1. He’s also had another 38 top 4 finishes so he is a jockey that Harrington clearly likes to use on triers.
Crosse rides Matter Of Fact here and this daughter of No Nay Never is a half to a soft ground winner. Her dam showed her best form on soft, as did a couple of her half siblings (Maxios & Bago). This filly won her maiden on good but she ran well to be fifth in a Listed race at Fairyhouse on yielding. She is unproven on soft but I am hoping that she relishes it, just as her pedigree suggests she might. At odds of 25/1, Matter Of Fact is the e/w pick.
Nothing is leaping off the page in the finale so this will be our last bet of the day.
