2024 Curragh & Newbury Saturday Preview – DS
2024 Curragh & Newbury Saturday Preview
Last weekend’s tips went straight in the bin. If Ancient Rome had got up then it would have been ok but he didn’t, and we had to make do with a solitary place. We go again this weekend, Dave Stevos’ 2024 Curragh & Newbury Saturday tips (and Market Rasen selections) are below.
1.50 Newbury – Steventon Stakes (Listed)
A disappointing field of just five will contest this 10F Listed contest. We backed Alyanaabi at Ascot last time but he could only finish fifth behind Rosallion. He’s well treated by the conditions of this race but he’s won just one of his last five starts. On paper and the figures he should win, but racing isn’t always that simple.
Al Aasy returns from a break and he landed this race last year. However, he had the benefit of a couple of runs before that win and he might just need this. Phantom Flight was runner up behind him in 2023 and he too is returning from a long break. He also sports a first time hood and that will need to bring about a big chunk of improvement for him to win.
Savvy Victory is a horse we have history with. I tipped him at big odds in a Listed race at Newmarket a couple of years ago and Rab Havlin had a ‘mare. He’s a strong traveller and he’s a horse I like but he’d probably need a couple of these to underperform to win.
Interesting
Sons And Lovers is interesting. He’s been running in some decent races this season behind the likes of Haatem, Almaqam and Jayarebe. He split the now 112 rated Kikkuli and the 109 rated Ice Max when third in the Heron Stakes at Sandown and he shaped ok when upped to 10f in the Hampton Court at Royal Ascot last time out.
In that race he had Al Musmak half a length behind him and he has since won a Listed race and is now rated 113. 105 rated Listed winner Portland was another half length behind and Sons And Lovers wasn’t far behind the 116 rated First Look. His rating of 103 might underestimate him and he could still improve on just his fifth career start. This doesn’t look the strongest of races so at 12/1, a small e/w interest is advised.
2024 Curragh & Newbury Saturday Tip: Sons And Lovers e/w @ 12/1
2.35 Curragh – David Power Memorial Handicap (Premier)
One of the most frustrating bets we had at Royal Ascot was on Torivega. I really fancied him to run big but he got no run whatsoever. In the end, he trailed in 8L behind the winner but on another day, I think he could have finished a lot closer to the principals.
That effort came off 98, 3lbs higher than he was when running a massive race over this C&D in a Premier Handicap back in May. That was his first run of the season so I was expecting a big jolt of improvement at Ascot but the race just didn’t pan out for him.
Now that he is back on more familiar ground, I can’t abandon Sheila Lavery’s 4yo son of Lope De Vega. He should get his favoured good ground, he’s run well over C&D before and odds of 20/1 are too tempting to turn down. Hopefully we can recoup our Ascot losses.
2024 Curragh & Newbury Saturday Tip: Torivega e/w @ 20/1 (6 places) nb
2.40 Market Rasen – Summer Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
Back in 2021 we managed to find Stonific in this race at 40/1. Can we repeat the dose? It won’t be easy in what looks an extremely competitive race. The one I have come down on at 16/1 is Castel Gandolfo. Trained by Fergal O’Brien, this 7yo has unfinished business in this race.
Last year, he ran a super race to finish second behind Too Friendly off 123. In 2022, he was beat a neck behind Pisagh Pike off a mark of 120. He is back to try and make it third time lucky and this time, he is in off a mark of 117.
That’s 3lbs lower than he was when last winning a class 2 handicap hurdle at Kelso (16f gd/fm) in May 2023. He’s also 8lbs lower than when beat a length in a valuable handicap hurdle at Market Rasen in September 2023. His course form figures read 4223, the third coming last time out in what was surely a prep run for this. I’d imagine this is his seasonal target and at odds of 16/1, Castel Gandolfo has to be worth chancing e/w.
2024 market rasen Saturday Tip: Castel Gandolfo e/w @ 16/1 (5 places) NAP
3.00 Newbury – Hackwood Stakes (Group 3)
A very tricky sprint. Since 2006, only three 3yos have won this race so that doesn’t bode well for the chances of Elite Status and Lake Forest, the second and third favs. Last year, our old pal Commanche Falls did the business in this. He ought to go well again but I am going to abandon him and instead back Twilight Calls.
This 6yo has won just three of his nineteen starts but he is generally very consistent. Since May 2021 when he won his novice over 6f and then was second in a handicap over 6f, he has raced exclusively at 5f or 5.5f. His sole start at 5.5f came in a York handicap in August 2021 and it looked like he didn’t get home. That probably explains why he has been kept at the minimum trip but on his last three starts, he has looked like he is crying out for this step up in distance.
Last time out in the Charge at Sandown he was detached by nearly 4L inside the 2f pole and he ran on strongly for fifth, beat just 3L for the win. At Royal Ascot, he travelled really well into the race but he just got outpaced late on before running on well for 6th, just 3.5l behind the winner Asfoora.
It was a similar story to Sandown on his seasonal return at Newmarket, coming from last to fourth, beaten only 0.75L for the win. Surely stepping back up to 6f will suit so Twilight Calls is the e/w selection at odds of 11/1.
2024 Curragh & Newbury Saturday Tip: Twilight Calls e/w @ 11/1
3.05 Curragh – Sapphire Stakes (Group 2)
Some familiar friends of the blog pitch up in this G2 sprint. Well, I am not sure I should be calling Makarova a friend given our record when backing her. Of course, she won last time out when we weren’t on, the removal of the blinkers working a treat. If only she didn’t wear them at Ascot.
We also backed Jakajaro last time out over C&D. The money came for him and on another day, he might have won. Instead, he had to settle for fourth, a length behind the winner My Mate Alfie. The return to this better ground should suit him and he is tempting at 18/1.
Ano Syra is definitely a friend of the blog. She went agonisingly close to winning at 50/1 for us here back in May, improving her excellent record at this track. Last time out, she was 0.5L in front of Jakajaro in the Listed race he ran in three weeks ago and given the ground conditions were yielding, I’d expect her to uphold that form on this sounder surface.
Ano Syra has form figures of 243332 in Group and Listed races at the Curragh over 6f, hopefully she adds a 1, 2 or 3 to that sequence on Saturday.
2024 Curragh & Newbury Saturday Tip: Ano Syra e/w @ 14/1
3.15 Market Rasen – Summer Plate Handicap Chase (Premier)
The one I’ll take a chance on in this competitive looking handicap is Vintage Fizz. Trained by Jedd O’Keefe, this 7yo son of Sulamani was last sighted running a massive race in the trial for this a month ago. He went down by a neck to Yccs Portocervo, from whom he was getting 3lbs, and he gets 5lbs from that rival in this rematch.
Decent ground suits this chestnut gelding and he is only 4lbs above his last winning mark. It looks to me like he has been trained for this race. O’Keefe gave him a five month break after a below par run at Doncaster in December and his two runs since should have left him spot on fitness wise for a crack at this tasty pot.
Now that he is 2lbs better off with Yccs Portocervo, he may be able to reverse the form of that last run. That may be enough for him to sneak into the places. At odds of 18/1 Vintage Fizz looks a shade too big to me and at the prices, he is worth taking a chance on each way.
2024 market rasen Saturday Tip: Vintage Fizz e/w @ 18/1 (5 places)
3.35 Newbury – Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes (Class 2)
These sales races have not been happy hunting grounds for me in the past. I was going to leave it alone but I couldn’t resist having a little flutter on Mapledurham at odds of 50/1. With a rating of just 75, she shouldn’t be able to win this but Rod Millman is a past master at conjuring massive runs out of horses that look like also rans in this particular race (and for this particular owner).
Millman didn’t have a runner in this last year but in 2022, Woolhampton (rated 74) ran a cracker to finish second at odds of 80/1. In 2019 he managed to win the race with the 79 rated Bettys Hope at 14/1 so he has previous of producing horses that outrun their ratings and odds in this sprint.
My guess is that he targeted this race as soon as Mapledurham ran third on debut over this C&D (at 100/1). She failed to fire on her second start at Leicester but the daughter of Kodiac bounced back with solid effort behind Alerta Maxima at Goodwood last time out. She tried to make all that day but I think she might be better suited to being ridden more quietly off a strong pace, which she should get here. With five places on offer, Mapledurham is worth chancing e/w at odds of 50/1.
2024 Curragh & Newbury Saturday Tip: Mapledurham e/w @ 50/1 (5 places)
3.40 Curragh – Irish Oaks (Group 1)
If the Irish Derby has lost some of its lustre, that isn’t the case with the Oaks. A field of fourteen fillies have been declared and amazingly, only three are trained by Aidan O’Brien. We have runners from Ireland, England and France and as the betting suggests, it looks a pretty wide open race.
Of the horses at the head of the market, I like War Chimes for David Menuisier and I also think Lava Stream (supplemented this week) holds serious claims. However, those two are priced up at around 9/1 so they are just a shade too short for the blog.
Another one that was supplemented for the race this week was the Johnny Murtagh trained Hanalia. She is by a top sire in Sea The Stars and she ticks the course form box. That Curragh win came in a 10f maiden back in May when she beat Lily Hart by over a length on yielding ground. That filly is now rated 102.
Hanalia proved it was no fluke at Naas three weeks ago. She finished off best of all to land the Listed Oaks Trial (10.5f gd), beating next time out Listed winner Greenfinch by 0.75L. I really liked how she went through the gaps when Ben Coen asked her and she showed a bit of toe in the final furlong before running strong through the line.
She isn’t guaranteed to stay 12f on pedigree but she wasn’t stopping at the finish at Naas and on that evidence, there is every chance she’ll get the trip. At odds of 16/1, it is worth chancing that she stays.
