2024 Doncaster & Newbury Preview & Tips – DS
2024 Doncaster & Newbury Saturday Preview
The Curragh was a write off for us last Monday. Linesky ran away with Silvestre De Sousa on the way to post and that was her chance gone. Mickey The Steel wasn’t fit and Sli Na Ghealai was probably out of her depth. Razdan was drawn on the wrong side and Play It Again Zaam looks a lost cause. A dire day, hopefully our 2024 Doncaster and Newbury Saturday selections run better.
1.20 Doncaster – Doncaster Mile Stakes (Listed)
Just seven runners and not a race that makes much appeal from an e/w perspective. All seven of them lack a recent run and the outsider, Dashing Roger, is surely using this as a stepping stone towards big handicap targets later in the season. No bet.
2024 Doncaster & Newbury Saturday Tip: No bet
1.50 Doncaster – EBF Brocklesby Stakes (Class 2)
This is always a race I look forward to. The first winner I can remember backing in it was Cock Of The North and it is hard to believe that was ten years ago. In 2022 Primrose Ridge ran a massive race for us at tasty odds, finding just Persian Force too good.
Amo Racing won the opening 2yo race in Ireland and they will be keen to win their second Brocklesby in three years with Mystical Elegance. She’s by Zoustar and if her dam’s pedigree is anything to go by, she should be effective on this soft ground. These Amo juveniles more often than not know their jobs first time up and it is no surprise to see that the bookies make her the 5/2 fav.
Guessing Game
Unless you have connections into a yard, this race is bit of a guessing game. My approach is to look at breeding, take into consideration the trainer’s record with 2yos and if the price is right, I’ll have a little bet. The one I came down on in the end was the 20/1 shot Atherstone Warrior.
This Coulsty colt was a mid-March foal and he is related to some decent horses. Stay Classy is a half brother and he won a valuable nursery here over 6f and was placed in a soft ground G3 in France as a 2yo. His dam won as a 2yo too (including on heavy) so he is certainly bred to be an early type.
Another cause for optimism is Alice Haynes’ record with juveniles. In the last five seasons she’s managed to win with 24 of her 69 2yos and Kieran O’Neill has ridden the vast majority of them. She is 5/24 with her 2yos at Donny and as far as I can see, Atherstone Warrior will be her first ever Brocklesby runner. Hopefully he can run a big race and reward e/w support at 20/1.
2024 Doncaster & Newbury Saturday Tip: Atherstone Warrior e/w @ 20/1 (4 places)
2.10 Newbury – BetVictor Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 3)
We also have a few jumps races to cover at Newbury this afternoon. They’ve got good to soft ground and given that I tipped him for a Grade 2 last time, I think Idy Wood is the one to beat here. His form with Cracking Rhapsody has been franked, his form with Lookaway is rock solid and I think he looks well handicapped off 124.
Of those at bigger odds, I Love My Baie is the only one that makes any appeal. He probably didn’t stay 24f at Donny last time, a G2 he was sent off at just 13/2 for. He had solid form before that flop, including a 7L novice hurdle win at Ayr (20f sft) and a creditable third in a G2 behind Kamsinas at Haydock (15.5f gd/sft).
I don’t think he’s as potentially well treated on his handicap bow as Idy Wood but he is consistent, he knows how to win and he is 2/2 over 20f. This race is a furlong shorter than that but even so, I Love My Baie is worth taking a chance on e/w at odds of 16/1.
2024 Doncaster & Newbury Saturday Tip: I Love My Baie e/w @ 16/1
2.25 Doncaster – Spring Mile Handicap (Class 2)
This is the consolation race for those that failed to get into the big one. We landed a lovely place in this last year with Maysong and he is big enough for us to back again. He’s returned to action this year in decent form. He needed his comeback at Wolves in January but he followed that up with a sold third at Chelmsford and a close second at Kempton, both at a mile.
The hardy 7yo son of Mayson comes into this race off a mark of 77, just 2lbs higher than when beat 0.75L last season. However, with Christian Howarth’s 3lbs claim, he is effectively a pound lower. This lad goes on all sorts of ground and it was good to firm when he beat Dutch Decoy off 79 at Sandown last June. He was placed in this on heavy and he has won on soft so it doesn’t matter what the weather does.
Christian Howarth has been placed three times from five rides on this gelding so he knows him well and we know he can win off this mark. Stall 2 may not be ideal but he went close from stall 7 last year so hopefully, it won’t be too much of a hindrance. At odds of 16/1, Maysong is the e/w selection.
2024 Doncaster & Newbury Saturday Tip: Maysong e/w @ 16/1 (5 places) NAP
2.40 Newbury – BetVictor Handicap Chase (Class 2)
Just seven runners and none bigger than 11/1. Gustavian is a friend of the blog and it would be nice to see him get his head in front but I’m happy to leave this race alone on what is a busy day. No bet.
2024 Doncaster & Newbury Saturday Tip: No Bet
3.00 Doncaster – Cammidge Trophy Stakes (Listed)
Rod Millman’s horses are in rare form right now and Adaay In Devon could be overpriced here. Chalked up at 12/1, this filly picked up some precious black type on testing ground at Newmarket on her final run of 2023. She loves to get her toe in and she’ll have her optimal conditions here.
Six furlongs is her ideal trip as her form figures of 211112 at the distance show. Now, it must be said that her rating of 95 leaves her with a fair bit to find with the top rated ones here. However, she gets all the allowances so she’ll carry just 8st 6lbs, 18lbs less than Marshman, Montassib, Baradar and Orazio and 13lbs less than the 4yo fillies.
This is undeniably going to be her toughest test yet but with her trainer in good form and with conditions to suit, an e/w interest on Adaay In Devon is advised at odds of 12/1.
2024 Doncaster & Newbury Saturday Tip: Adaay In Devon e/w @ 12/1 (3 places) nb
3.15 Newbury – EBF NH Mares’ Novice Handicap Hurdle (Grade 2)
The one I like at a good e/w price in this valuable G2 handicap is All The Glory. Trained by Jonjo O’Neill, this daughter of Fame And Glory has been running well for the most part this season in Novice company. Since her win at Market Rasen in August she has had five runs and on the form of her Plumpton second in November, her mark of 115 looks workable.
In that race she chased home Shanagh Bob. She was 7l behind the winner, from whom she was getting 2lbs, and he has since won a G2 at Cheltenham and is now rated 134. Kruger Park was 20L behind All The Glory back in third and he has since hosed up in a handicap off 105 and is now rated 116.
Last time out O’Neill’s mare ran a rare below par race at Ludlow but the ground was too soft for her. She is at her best on ground with good in the description and her best run came at today’s trip of 20f. I usually avoid backing handicap debutants because of their lack of experience but this mare has had plenty of runs.
O’Neill won this in 2019 with Annie Mc, the last time he had a runner in it. Hopefully All The Glory can follow in her hoofsteps at odds of 20/1.
2024 Doncaster & Newbury Saturday Tip: All The Glory e/w @ 20/1
3.35 Doncaster – William Hill Lincoln Handicap (Heritage)
I was fuming on Thursday when I saw Greatgadian wasn’t declared for this race. He looked exceedingly well handicapped on last year’s run and I was expecting him to go very close. We’ll have to look elsewhere for a bit of e/w value and I’m going to take a chance on one from a smaller, up and coming yard.
Gemma Tutty has done a great job since taking the reins from her mum. She’s racked up 39 winners since her name went on the licence in 2022 and five of those have come in 2024. Her last six runners have returned form figures of 312125 so she couldn’t be in much better form.
Ex Hannon Horse
She runs One Night Thunder in the Lincoln, a 15k purchase out of Richard Hannon’s yard. This 4yo colt has some decent runs in the book and on the form of his Goodwood third last season, a mark of 88 doesn’t look beyond him. He was 6L behind the now 109 rated Cicero’s Gift that day and 1L behind True Genius, a horse that was subsequently 1L behind Regal Reality in an Epsom G3 on his next (and last) UK start (rated 103).
Ancestral Land was a head behind One Night Thunder in fourth and he was subsequently placed off 95 in a Sandown handicap. Next time at Nottingham he was 3L behind Lord Of Biscay in another novice and he is now rated 100 after a Listed fourth at Chantilly.
Solid Stable Debut
On his last start for Hannon the son of Night of Thunder disappointed in a Lingfield handicap off 93. His first start for Tutty saw him run a cracker on heavy ground at Newmarket (8f), beat just 2.25L off 90. He has 1.75L to find with Spirit Genie on that run but he is 5lbs better off with that rival here.
The handicapper has dropped One Night Thunder to 88 and with Laura Coughlan’s claim, he’s effectively in off 85. On his best runs for Hannon he is a better horse than that rating and there’s been cut in the ground for two of his best efforts.
Obviously, fitness has to be taken on trust but he has a nice draw (if it works out the same as last year’s race), his yard is flying and Laura Coughlan is 6/39 with 16 top 4 finishes when riding for this yard. If Tutty has him fit and ready to rock on his seasonal return, One Night Thunder has the ability to possibly run into a place at odds of 66/1.
