2024 Dutch GP Outright Betting Preview – JP
2024 Dutch GP Outright Betting Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Dutch GP Raceday preview. He signed off before the mid-summer break with a couple of fantastic winners in Belgium, hopefully we continue in the same vein this weekend.
2024 Dutch GP – Reflections On Spa
George Russell’s bold one stop strategy won him the Belgian GP and landed a couple of nice bets for us in the process. He was stripped of the win for an underweight car, but that was after the podium presentation was completed, meaning that we got paid out. It was 16.46 point profit over the race weekend, taking the YTD tally to +53.12 points.
The summer break has flashed by and we now have ten more races to go before the completion of the longest ever F1 season. This weekend we have the 2024 Dutch GP from the Zandvoort circuit, set amongst the coastal sand dunes.
The 2024 Dutch GP Track
The circuit was heavily modified for its return to the F1 calendar in 2021. It is a busy, short lap (72 lap race), but quite fast despite only having one long straight.
There are fourteen corners, including three 180 degree turns, as the track winds its way across a fairly small, compact parcel of land. It is not just twisty, it is very undulating, producing a roller coaster like ride for the drivers.
It is well regarded by the drivers as it is very technical and the driver can make the difference here. Many of the corners are banked to keep the speeds up, despite the lack of straights.
Tough To Assess
It is quite a complicated track to try and work out. Good traction is rewarded out of eight or so of the slower corners, which Ferrari will like, and it is quite hard on the tyres, which may reward McLaren. It requires a good amount of downforce to get a good lap time, and to look after the tyres and again that points towards McLaren.
This not a Monaco scenario, but maybe a bit more like the Hungaroring? It has the one long straight with overtaking going into turn 1, and then then it is a sinuous, busy, twisty lap. Overtaking is a little easier than in Hungary, at least for the more skilled drivers, but in a dry race, you should be looking at holding your starting position unless you have a significant performance advantage. A quick car out of position on the grid can move up the order.
There have only been three races here and all three have been won by the local hero, Max Verstappen, and all from pole position. Last year’s race was a rain affected thriller as it was hit by heavy downpours, leaving the teams struggling to keep up strategy wise.
The first three races saw two DNFs in 2021 and 2022, with three last year.
The Weather
The forecast for this weekend is for a showery, breezy weekend, There is some rain likely for FP1 on Friday morning and it will be very windy. Saturday will be a mix of sunshine, showers and remaining quite windy.
Sunday will finally see a good deal of sunshine and a dry day, with the wind moderating. Temperatures will range from 19 degrees on Saturday to 21 degrees on Sunday. The sunshine on Sunday should produce higher track temperatures than for the other two days, and that may change tyre behaviour.
Rules Tweak
This race will see the introduction of a rules tweak relating to the cars braking system. As of this weekend “Any system or mechanism which can produce systematically or intentionally asymmetric braking torques for a given axle is forbidden”.
In effect, it is aimed at teams having a braking system that can apply more braking pressure to say, the rear inside wheel, to give a bit of a brake steer effect. A system like that would improve low speed cornering without any need to add more downforce/drag.
No team has been named has having been running such a system, but everyone is going to be looking at cornering performance this weekend and trying to see who has been at it. It may be that nobody has been and that the tweak, which had already been pencilled in for the 2026 regulations, is just closing a potential loophole. It is a case of wait and see.
2024 Dutch GP: Team-by Team
The factories will have been shut down for the Summer break but we can expect an interesting development race between now and the end of the season.
Some teams have already introduced quite a few upgrades, which limits how much they can bring to the cars in the final races. Others, like McLaren, have a bit more to come, so it looks like the changing fortunes and form of the various teams will continue to fluctuate right to the wire.
Before the summer shut down, it was Mercedes who were riding the crest of a wave. They won three of the last four races and have picked up 103 points (not including sprint races). That was despite Russell’s DQ in Belgium and DNF at Silverstone. McLaren scored the most points over the last four with 116 points, while Red Bull and Ferrari both scored 69.
Red Bull now lead McLaren by 42 points. In turn, Ferrari trail McLaren by 21 points, with Mercedes still 79 points behind Ferrari. The two teams in the best form before the summer break were McLaren and Mercedes.
Red Bull
On recent form, now just the joint third best team. Their in-season developments have not gone well. The team admit that the car is not working properly. It is not performing as well as it did in the opening races, the other leading contenders have closed the performance gap and are now forging ahead.
Red Bull are working to find a solution, but do not expect much to change this weekend. There must be a temptation to go back to the future and take off the more recent upgrades. However, stubbornness can be a problem. The engineers will ‘know’ that there is better performance, if they can just find the key to unlock it. It took Mercedes two and half years to find their key, so it is a big call.
The lack of balance in the car is even too much for Verstappen to be able to win with and it is making Perez’ life very difficult.
Perez Speculation
There was speculation that Sergio Perez may have got the boot over the summer break, but the team have decided to ‘get behind him’ and try and get the car more to his liking. The problem is that he and Verstappen like the car set up very differently.
Obviously, the car has been developed with Verstappen in mind and it is hard to see how they can make it more Perez friendly. If it was just set up changes, you would have thought they would have sorted that out a long time ago.
Verstappen has not won any of the last four races but he was the fastest qualifier at Spa, before his grid penalty meant he started eleventh, finishing fifth, and promoted to fourth after Russell was disqualified. This will be the first time he has come to his home race, not as the favourite. Perez finished three of the last four races in seventh place and that seems to be his limit right now.
McLaren
Still closing in on Red Bull and they are now the 1.62 favourites to win the Constructors’ Championship. That, despite not realising their real potential.
Norris has left a lot of points on the floor and while the team’s strategy has cost him at times, he has been guilty of making expensive mistakes. For that reason, his chances of winning the World Championship have likely already gone, but he can still pick up more race wins in 2024 and help the team win the Constructors’ title.
Piastri is improving, as a second season driver should be doing, but he still needs to be doing a better job in qualifying if he is to win more races.
With plenty of developments still to come, it looks good constructors’ title wise, but both drivers and team can do better. The car is a great all-rounder and should be expected to be in the mix again this weekend.
Ferrari
Still working on fixes for their high speed bouncing problem. The team are looking forward to racing at Imola, Baku and Singapore where there are fewer high speed corners to make the bouncing a big problem. Will it be a problem at Zandvoort?
The fact that the team are looking more at the three races following this weekend suggest that they do not expect to go that well here. That said, they are still third in the Constructors’ Championship and while podiums have become harder to come by, thanks to Mercedes’ revival, the red cars are top 6 regulars.
Mercedes
After Friday’s free practice session in Belgium, I had just about written off their chances for the race on Sunday. It was a bad enough day for the team to remove their new upgrades and go back to their Silverstone set up. In the end they finished the race first and second.
The team, much like Red Bull, will want to persevere with the latest upgrades and make them work as they were expected to. I expect to see the upgrades back on the car for a test session on Friday, so they will hope for a dry day. If it does now work, they may extend their run of race wins, and if they have to go back to the Silverstone upgrades, well, they are not too shabby.
The fairly cool conditions forecast for the weekend will be good news for Mercedes whose car is now very competitive, but not quite the all-rounder that they have at McLaren.
Hamilton Leads Russell
Hamilton is now 34 points ahead of the unfortunate Russell, who lost 25 points when disqualified in Belgium, and he failed to score at Silverstone after a rare mechanical breakdown.
There is no doubt that Hamilton is now fully engaged in his job, having been a bit huffy in the first part of the season. Russell is still a match at the very least, but when Hamilton has the bit between his teeth, he is a far better driver than the ‘poor me’ one when things are tough.
Hamilton has finished in the top four in the last six races which makes him one of the form players, up there with Norris and Piastri. Russell is just having a torrid time and his real form is a lot better than the bare results suggest.
Aston Martin
In a league of their own, but it just is not a very good league. They are 193 points behind fourth placed Mercedes but have more than double the points of sixth placed Visa RB. They can usually get one car home in the points but they have yet to finish higher than 6th in the last twelve races.
Alonso was second here last year, a great drive in mixed conditions, and he finished sixth in the first two races here. He will do well to make it a third consecutive top six in the Netherlands, but he should be good for a point or two.
VISA RB
They have scored points in eight of the last nine races and are heading in the right direction again. They lost direction after their Spanish GP upgrade didn’t work as expected. Daniel Ricciardo is finding a bit of form, scoring in three of the last six races and he is now on a par with Tsunoda. He has done enough to keep the drive for the rest of the season.
The team have yet to score a point in the Dutch GP and while they might well end that run, it will only be very minor points, if any.
Haas
New team leader, Ayao Komatsu, has been quite honest by saying that the fact they are in seventh place is as much to do with how poor Sauber, Alpine and Williams have been in 2024. Yes, they have fixed the car’s biggest weakness, the very high tyre degradation, but other than that, the car is not a massive step up on the 2023 version.
They have two decent (and departing) drivers who can get the most out of a race, although it must be said that Magnussen has fallen well short in qualifying. That then impacts on his race prospects and the team are very reliant on Hulkenberg to score the points. The likelihood is that they will need some attrition from the cars ahead if they are to add to their points tally.
Alpine
After a disastrous start to the season, with just one point scored in the first seven races, Alpine have scored ten points across the last seven. That is a pathetic return for a manufacturer team, but the reality is that it is a team who have been badly lead for years.
Renault have not really shown total commitment to F1 and their performance has dropped right off. Key staff have been sacked and others jumped ship. Now it looks like they are to stop manufacturing their own power units and a sale of the team looks increasingly likely.
They have been able to reduce the car’s weight, which is the main reason for them being able to score a few points, but they have not manged to finish higher than ninth all season. Gasly finished third in the mixed conditions here last year and Ocon has three consecutive top 10s at Zandvoort.
They could be in the bun fight for the very minor points with Aston Martin, Haas and Visa RB.
Williams
2024 has been sacrificed for longer term gains. Last year’s car was a one trick pony, very strong in terms of straight line speed. That trait allowed them to score points on the power circuits, but it was poor otherwise. This year’s car is a better allrounder, but not good enough to score points on merit.
The team’s resources are going on improving infrastructure, building up modernised facilities to allow them to design and manufacture as a modern F1 team should do.
Albon has scored two ninth places. One was at Monaco, where we had four DNFs, and the other at the rain affected British GP. Albon also qualified ninth in both those races and he deserves credit for that. He was eighth here last year, another mixed conditions race, and when the driver can make a difference, Albon has a sniff of more points. It looks like Sargeant will make the end of the season, which is a surprise.
Williams have just been carrying out weight saving exercises to improve the car’s pace, but they are due their first significant upgrade sometime soon. If that works, Albon can be considered as an outsider for points. New aero parts, a redesigned suspension and further weight savings are planned.
Sauber
In a 24-race season, you would think that every team would get a chance to score some points, if only due to getting lucky somewhere. Sauber are doing their best to dispel that thought. They are now having a managerial reshuffle ahead of becoming the Audi works team next season. You have to wonder if the team are really that bothered about what happens this year.
2024 Dutch GP: Summary
The relative form of the various teams shouldn’t have changed much over the break. It is a strictly enforced shut down, and frankly, the teams need the break to rest their staff. There are likely to be some upgrades seen in the pitlane, those that were already in the pipeline.
With the track only having held three races since it rejoined the calendar it is hard to read into many patterns, outside of Verstappen completely dominating. Hamilton, Sainz, Alonso and Ocon have been solid performers here.
Recent form puts the McLarens and Mercedes at the top of the heap performance wise, and the latter team remain underrated in my opinion.
Mercedes Flying
Mercedes have won three of the last four races. Russell inherited the win in Austria after Verstappen and Norris collided late on, but Mercedes have won fair and square at Silverstone and Spa. Those are two, old school, fast, sweeping tracks with lots of high speed corners.
This Zandvoort circuit is not a Spa/Silverstone speed track, but neither is it a slow track. There are some parallels to the Hungaroring, with one straight, followed by a busy, twisty lap. Having three 180 degree corners is unusual, as are the banked corners, so this has its own character.
McLaren have the best car in my book. Competitive on all tracks and in all conditions. Weaknesses are driver mistakes and poor race strategy. The team are relearning how to win, how to be front runners and they are not a well-oiled machine in that respect. They dominated in Hungary and that looks to be a reasonable form guide for this weekend, albeit being cooler and windier.
Norris has had the better of Piastri for most of the season but Piastri has finished ahead of Norris in three of the last four races. Norris holds the whip hand in qualifying, but his race starts leave a lot to be desired.
Not As Bad As It Looks For RB
Red Bull’s loss of form is relative. It looks a little worse than it is. Perez is drowning but Verstappen dropped places after his clash with Norris in Austria, he dropped places after his clash with Hamilton in Hungary and he had a ten place grid penalty in Spa, where he was the fastest qualifier, and introduced a new power unit into the pool. He will be well set for another tilt at his home race.
Lando Norris is the 2.80 favourite, Max Verstappen is 2.88, Oscar Piastri 6.50, Lewis Hamilton 10.00 and George Russell 11.00. The winner looks likely to come from those five. Norris and Verstappen look a bit short, the Mercedes may not be quite as good here as at the faster tracks, which leaves Oscar Piastri.
Debut Win In Hungary
The Aussie got his debut win in Hungary. It was a bit controversial as it required Lando Norris to let him past to take the win, but Norris had been helped by the teams typically clumsy strategy, and he was duty bound to do the right thing. Had Norris not messed up another start, he would not have got himself in that situation.
Piastri’s confidence will have been boosted by that win, while Norris went into the summer break saying that he needed a reset, after another poor start in Belgium. I am not sure that there is as much difference between the two drivers as the odds suggest. However, I am happy to swerve the outright 2024 Dutch GP winner market for now. We might be able to narrow the field down a bit on Sunday.
There are three bets that I will strike now.
Sainz Can Go Well
The first is an old fashioned statto bet. Carlos Sainz, who has signed a deal to drive with Williams next year, is unlikely to be in the running for a podium, but he is a super consistent performer. Of his thirteen races in 2024 he has finished in the top six no less than twelve times. Only a DNF in Canada blotted his copy book.
His results here are 7/8/5, he did cross the line fifth in 2022 but he picked up a penalty for a unsafe pit lane release and dropped to eighth.
The track may not be perfect for Ferrari, but it shouldn’t be too bad either. There are enough slower corners and traction events to play to their strengths.
2024 Dutch GP Tip: 2 points Carlos Sainz to finish in the top 6 @ 1.73 with Ladbrokes
Another consistent performer of late is Lewis Hamilton. Four podium finishes from his last four races, and he only missed out by one place in Austria, albeit a distant one. He has finished top 4 in his last six races, so a top three here should be on the radar.
2024 Dutch GP Tip: 1 point Lewis Hamilton to finish on the podium @ 2.50 with Ladbrokes
The Zandvoort circuit is one of the shorter laps on the calendar. Only Monaco has more laps. Short laps mean smaller winning margins, especially when we have four teams fighting at the front.
We have had four races on tracks with at least 70 laps, Monaco, Canada Austria and Hungary. The winning qualifying margin has been under 0.10 seconds in two of them. We can get 2.75 on that bet for Saturday’s qualifying. In the three previous qualifying sessions here, under 0.10 in qualifying has won twice. Verstappen was 0.537 clear here last year, but he had a very dominant car then.
Of the four short lap races in 2024, the race winning margin has been under 5 seconds three times. Only Monaco was over 5 seconds and that was down to Ferrari having a car very well suited to the demands of that track.
Closely Matched At The Front
With four teams picking up wins and podiums in 2024, things are much closer than we have been used to. The last six races in 2024 have seen winning margins of under 5 seconds, and seven of the last eight, again Monaco was the outlier.
With rain a reasonable possibility for qualifying, it could be we get a bit of randomness in Q3. Wet to dry, or dry to wet, conditions could allow someone to get lucky with the right conditions at the right time. That is enough for me to steer clear of that bet, at least for now.
However, Sunday looks much more likely to be dry and should run to form, and recent form suggests another close race.
