2024 Emilia-Romagna GP Raceday Update – JP
2024 Emilia-Romagna GP Raceday Update
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Emilia-Romagna GP Raceday Preview. We came within a whisker of landing a lovely winner in qualifying, hopefully we can gain some compensation today.
2024 Emilia-Romagna GP Raceday
It was just 0.075 seconds away from being an excellent qualifying yesterday, but Verstappen being able to pick up a tow from Hulkenberg was the difference between Verstappen on pole, or Piastri. The young Aussie was then demoted three places for blocking Kevin Magnussen, which means that our outright selection for the race, Lando Norris, starts from the front row.
In the three races here in the modern era, the winners have always started in the top three. Overtaking is hard and not helped by this track only having one DRS zone, and that is shorter this year than in the past.
Watching the F2 races, the DRS was not really helping but the order can be shaken up by safety cars. Red Flags, we had two in FP3, cannot be ruled out either. There is not a lot of room off the track and any accidents or breakdowns are very likely to see the safety car brought out.
It was a safety car which helped Norris claim his first victory in Miami last time out, and something similar could be a random factor today.
Safety Car Likely
The high chance of a safety car should mean that nobody starts on the soft tyres. Ideally, this is a one stop race, and the drivers will be well aware that a safety car is likely, and that is the ideal time to make a stop.
Starting on the hard tyres and going long into the race, waiting for the safety car, is a likely strategy for the midfield and backmarkers. The front runners will want better traction off the line and are more likely to start on the mediums.
Of course, a front runner could start on the softs to help make a jump up the order at the start, and then hope for a relatively early safety car, to get rid of the softs and take on a tyre to get to the end of the race.
The problem with safety cars is that you can’t predict when they happen. Accidents on lap 1 are likely to trigger one, but that is a bit too early. It could be that that we see more than one to further confuse things.
Verstappen is the 1.44 favourite, Norris 4.50 and Leclerc 12.00, all win only. I am happy to stick with Norris at our 9.00.
Team-by-Team
Red Bull
It has been a tough weekend for Red Bull so far and qualifying was the only session in which they were fastest, and that by the very smallest of margins. There is little between the top three teams but Verstappen has the advantage of track position at the start.
Getting off the line faster than the rest might be the deciding factor. The race to the first chicane may be the race. Perez crashed out in FP3 and failed to reach Q3. He now starts eleventh and it will be hard for him to offer much support to his teammate.
Neck And Neck
Long run pace showed the Red Bull and Ferrari to be neck and neck on Friday, with McLaren a couple of tenths off. That said, whoever has clean air in front of them, holds all the aces.
For once, Verstappen may be a bit short at 1.44. He has four cars behind him who can put him under pressure, but he copes well with it, as we saw yesterday.
Verstappen is a little worried about his long run pace as he has changed the setup on his car since Friday, and he hasn’t really done any long runs with the setup he went into qualifying with. There is real uncertainty there.
McLaren
Very much a match for Red Bull on pace. Race pace may be a different matter, but Norris is in a very good position to challenge for the win. Piastri would have to buck the trend of winners from the top three, and he has two fast Ferraris between him and the front runners.
Norris loves this track, has back to back podium finishes and he now is a race winner, and he has a car that is capable of winning on merit. Hopefully he can do it. We are due one. Without getting that tow in Q3, Verstappen would have been behind both McLarens, so the McLaren appears to be the faster car.
Ferrari
Disappointing in qualifying. Leclerc dominated both sessions on Friday but Saturday saw them fall behind Red Bull and McLaren. When push came to shove, Ferrari were a few tenths off the pace.
Their long run pace on Friday was good, so they may well be more competitive today. Both cars were elevated a place by Piastri’s penalty. That helps, but Leclerc was keen to point out that it will be hard to overtake.
Sainz was some three tenths off his teammate and there is speculation that he is not comfortable with the upgraded Ferrari. He struggled to get the most out of the soft tyre but expects his race pace to be stronger.
Visa RB
A great qualifying session for the home team. They will have some 500 factory workers in the grandstand today and they have both cars in the top 10.
Tsunoda kept on popping up near the very top of the time sheets, and his eventual seventh place was a bit disappointing, if anything. We have Ricciardo to finish in the points, and he starts ninth.
Their long run pace was OK and only Perez in eleventh looks to have better race pace. Hopefully Ricciardo gets a clean start and if so, he should be able to hang on. Tsunoda was seventh in in 2022 and he should be thereabouts again.
Mercedes
The latest upgrade on the Mercedes had the drivers purring on Friday but as usual, they then fell back and are in their usual spot behind the big three, only this time they Have the Visa RBs right on their pace. It is hard to see them making much progress on merit.
Haas
The same old story at Haas. Hulkenberg making Q3, Magnussen out in Q1. At least he had the excuse of being blocked this time.
Hulkenberg has scored points in three of the previous six races and he is never far away. Magnussen makes up some places in the race, but he is being made to look a bit ordinary by Hulkenberg. With Perez starting just behind Hulkenberg, he probably needs some attrition ahead of him to finish in the points.
Alpine
Ocon qualified twelfth, his best of the season. Their long run pace on Friday wasn’t good, and if they didn’t address that before qualifying yesterday, making progress may be hard. Gasly ended up fifteenth, blaming the team for giving him a worse strategy than Ocon.
Aston Martin
Last year’s big losers in the development race, and it looks like the same thing has happened again. They had more updates than any other team this weekend and the car seems to have got slower.
Alonso had a big crash in FP2. The car was just about fixed in time for him to fail to get out of Q1. Stroll managed the giddy heights of thirteenth, his second worst qualifying session of the season.
Alonso can start from nineteenth, but the team may choose to change the car’s set up and start from the pit lane. Any points for either driver would be a surprise.
Kick F1
Pretty rubbish all weekend. Bottas was blaming the gusty winds, which seem only to affect the slow cars. Zhou seems to think the upgrades on the car are working. He starts from seventeenth. I think he may be wrong.
Williams
Albon also blamed the wind for his disappointing fourteenth place. That is four consecutive fourteenth places in qualifying for Albon, which suggests that that is where the car is, wind or no wind. Sargeant had all his timed laps disallowed for track limits being exceeded, not that anyone noticed.
2024 Emilia-Romagna GP Raceday Summary
Imola is a nice looking, old school track. The drivers love the lap, but it isn’t a great racetrack. It is very narrow with gravel traps very close to the edge of the track. A safety car deployment looks likely (1.40) as it is very easy to get stuck in the gravel and if you miss the gravel, the barriers are there to really smash the car up.
Lando Norris summed up the race ahead quite well. It is all about the race to T1, having good pit stops, and a good strategy. Overtaking is unlikely to be a feature of the race. The safety car seems the most likely thing to mix up the order, which is not great from a punting perspective.
Hopefully Norris can land our win bet and at least we have a good price.
2024 Emilia-Romagna GP Raceday Selections
Oscar Piastri to finish on the podium makes some appeal, but odds of 2.50 don’t. He has looked very comfortable in the fully updated McLaren and to have his front row start taken away is unfortunate.
Perhaps he will get the fastest lap, just as he did in Miami. We were on Norris for the FL and he had that in the bag, until Piastri had to make a late stop for a new wing. On new tyres, he took the FL, costing Norris, and the team, a point.
Piastri was not in the top 10 and therefore not eligible for the point. The McLaren has the pace to be in the mix for the FL, and while it is a bit of a lottery bet, the odds are decent enough for a small interest.
2024 Emilia-Romagna GP Raceday Tip: 0.5 point Oscar Piastri to set the fastest lap at 9.00 with Betfred
Another driver who has looked very comfortable all weekend is Yuki Tsunoda. This is his real ‘home race’, he lives a short drive from the track. He is obviously feeling very good and driving the improved Visa RB.
Tsunoda was disappointed with is seventh place in qualifying, such has been his pace in practice. He finished seventh here in 2022 and it would be no great surprise to see him go one better today.
2024 Emilia-Romagna GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Yuki Tsunoda to finish in the top 6 @ 4.50 with BET365, Livescorebet
The battle of the minor points, or point, seems to be between Hulkenberg and Ocon, but with the Visa RBs looking good for a double points finish, breaking into the top 10 looks like requiring some attrition.
Hulkenberg is 2.38 for a top 10 finish, Ocon 3.75. The Alpine is a better race car than qualifier. Ocon has finished 11th and 10th in the last two races, but started 13th in both. He starts one place better today and he looks an acceptable price to get back to back points finishes in the improving Alpine.
2024 Emilia-Romagna GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Esteban Ocon to finish in the points @ 3.75 with BET365, Livescorebet
Ladbrokes’ Group bets are always worth a look. In Group 1 Perez is interesting at 3.75 to beat the two Mercedes and Tsunoda. I was tempted, but he has been very poor this weekend.
Group 2 is forcing me to break a golden rule. The rule of not double backing a driver. We backed Ricciardo to finish in the points ante post and he is looking good for that.
He also looks good value to beat the two Aston Martins, Hulkenberg and Ocon. He has the quickest car in the group and starts ahead of the others. Of course, the double backing will incur the wrath of the punting gods, and he’ll get shunted out in the first corner. Maybe I should triple back him and bet him to be the first retirement…
