2024 Epsom Derby Meeting Preview & Tips – DS
2024 Epsom Derby Meeting Preview
Last week was a struggle. Flora Of Bermuda was backed into 10/1 but fell out of the stalls. Airman also started slowly and never landed a blow. Ano Syra saved the day with a superb effort to finish third, advised at 66s. Bright Stripes was outclassed, the rain scuppered Mashhoor’s chances and Alpheratz was out of her depth. This weekend the focus switches to the UK, Dave’s 2024 Epsom Derby Meeting tips and previews are below.
Weather Watch
First of all, the weather. As it stands, the ground is good to soft all over at Epsom. However, with 3mm rain forecast today and close to 4mm tomorrow, I can’t see it drying out much. In fact, if the forecast is accurate, I’d imagine there’ll be more soft than good in it. So, we will be backing horses that enjoy an ease, hopefully the rain comes.
Friday
2.00 – Woodcote Stakes (Class 2)
J Street ran well on good to soft on debut in a class 2 maiden at Beverley four weeks ago. However, the form has not worked out and she was taken out of a race at Catterick because of soft ground last week. I’m going to leave her alone today but I think she’s worth keeping an eye out for when the weather improves.
No maiden has won this since 2004 so that does not bode well for the two market leaders. The one I’m going to keep the faith with is Atherstone Warrior. We backed him in the Brocklesby (5f sft) and he ran a cracker to finish fourth, just 1.75L behind Royal Ascot bound Zminiature.
He was a bit green that day and he showed the benefit of that experience by winning at Thirsk next time up (5f hvy). He had Arabie 0.75L behind, since a winner at York, and Duke Of Haather was 4.5L back in third and he ran huge in a class 2 novice at Newmarket on his next start.
Atherstone Warrior admittedly ran poorly on his last start in a good race at Ascot. However, the good to soft ground and stiff track may not have been his cup of tea. This faster 6f should suit him better, the ground will definitely be more to his liking if the rain arrives and I think it is too soon to write the son of Coulsty off. At 28/1, a small e/w interest is advised.
2024 Epsom Derby Meeting Tip: Atherstone Warrior e/w @ 28/1
2.35 – Trustatrader Handicap (Class 2)
As is often the case in these handicaps, David O’Meara holds a strong hand. He runs three and the one that looks most overpriced to me is Bopedro. He’s a regular in these types of races and after an underwhelming start to the season, he shaped as though coming back to top form at York last time out (8f gd). He was beat 3.5L into third by Point Lynas off 98 and he’s been dropped another pound to 97.
He is now 5lbs lower than when beaten just 2.5L on his last soft ground start in the Balmoral handicap at Ascot (8f sft). He’s a pound lower than he was when last winning at Newmarket (8f gd/fm) and he enjoys a bit of cut in the ground.
Jason Watson has never won on the 8yo son of Pedro The Great but he has finished in the first three on three occasions from five attempts and he’s never been beaten further than 4.25L on him. Given Bopedro’s run style a degree of luck will be required, especially on this track, but odds of 14/1 are big enough to warrant an e/w interest.
2024 Epsom Derby Meeting Tip: Bopedro e/w @ 14/1 (5 places)
3.10 – Coronation Cup (Group 1)
Just five runners in this valuable Group 1. Emily Upjohn is back to defend her crown but soft ground would be a big unknown for her. She has won on good to soft but she has also bombed out on good to soft and this could be the most testing surface she has encountered to date.
Luxembourg has won multiple races on soft but he flopped badly in Meydan two months ago. French raider Feed The Flame has some form on easy ground but I’d imagine connections came here in the hope of getting a sounder surface. The son of Kingman’s peak form has come on ground with good in the description.
Time Lock is another one that would prefer better ground so that leaves us with Hamish. He’s the elder lemon of the field but he has looked as good as ever in G3s in the last year or so. William Haggas’ son of Motivator has won five in a row and he hasn’t tasted defeat since October 2022. Soft ground is ideal for him and while he is now too short for the blog, he’s the only one I’d be interested in backing if I was having a bet.
2024 Epsom Derby Meeting Tip: No bet
4.30 – Betfred Oaks (Group 1)
Ylang Ylang heads the market for this year’s Oaks. It has been slim pickings for Ballydoyle in this year’s classics so far and they’ll be hoping this daughter of Frankel can end the drought. She stayed on takingly to finish fifth in the 1000 Guineas and this trip looks sure to suit her. Her Fillies’ Mile win came on soft ground so conditions shouldn’t inconvenience her and her claims are clear for all to see.
Rubies Are Red is by Galileo and she stayed on well at Lingfield (11.5f gd) three weeks ago. It was a strange run, she looked beaten turning in but she flew home to nab second, just 0.5L behind You Got To Me. I suspect she may want further than this and the ground has to rate as a worry too.
Treasure was only 1.25L behind Rubies Are Red (and 1.75l behind You Got To Me) at Lingfield. Those two rivals are 13/2 and 12/1 here, Treasure is 16s. She won her maiden on bad ground at Nottingham last season so the forecast rain is in her favour.
The daughter of Mastercraftsman is a big, imposing grey filly and it looked as though she would improve plenty for that comeback run. On this ground, and with that run under her belt, I would give her every chance of reversing the form with her two re-opposing rivals and if she does that, it should be enough for a place at least. At odds of 16/1, Treasure is the e/w selection.
2024 Epsom Derby Meeting Tip: Treasure e/w @ 16/1 NAP
Saturday
2.00 – Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Group 3)
I’m going to presume that the ground on Saturday won’t be quite as soft as Friday. There’ll still be soft in it but I’d imagine it’ll suit horses that like a little bit of juice in the ground. We start the day off with this G3 over 8.5f and nine fillies run.
Running Lion won a Listed race on soft last year but her other two runs on ground with soft in the description were poor. I wouldn’t be rushing to back her at odds of 2/1 if it is even good to soft on Saturday. Sparks Fly would like even more rain than has been forecast. She loves the muck so it might not be testing enough for her this afternoon.
We backed Royal Dress at Goodwood last time out and she won that Listed heat at 33/1. The bookies weren’t too impressed by that win and she is double figure odds again here. Ben Coen is back over to ride and this ground should be perfect for her. This looks to be her best trip, she doesn’t have to improve a whole lot on the figures and I’m keeping the faith. At odds of 12/1, Royal Dress is the e/w selection.
2024 Epsom Derby Meeting Tip: Royal Dress e/w @ 12/1
3.10 – 3yo Dash Handicap (Class 3)
Back to back races on the fastest sprint track in the UK starting with the Dash for the 3yos. Twenty run and it looks an exceedingly tricky puzzle. It is sometimes said that a high draw is a positive but what is more important is that your horse is capable of handling the fast, downhill track.
This race is all about pure speed and there is no shortage of early pace in here. The one I am going to take a punt on is the locally trained Mc Loven. Trained by Simon Dow, this son of Harry Angel is a fast horse. His two wins last year came on the all weather at Wolves and Lingfield and he made all on both occasions over 5f.
Since returning from a winter break he has run well twice from three starts. 6f just proved a shade too far on his return in a valuable handicap at Lingfield where he was beat just 1L off 82, losing three places in the dying strides. He likely wasn’t off a yard in a minor event at Windsor on his next start at Windsor and I’m hoping that his last run at Goodwood was designed to ready him for this.
Mc Loven will be Simon Dow’s only runner at the meeting so he’ll surely be doing his best. Paddy Bradley has won on him before and he’s 2lbs lower than when running such a big race at Lingfield in March. He’s drawn close to the near side rail in stall 4, if he gets away well from the gates, hopefully Mc Loven can run a huge race at odds of 16/1.
2024 Epsom Derby Meeting Tip: Mc Loven e/w @ 16/1 (6 places)
3.45 – Aston Martin Dash Handicap (Heritage)
Only fifteen run in this year’s Epsom Dash and a couple of them are miles wrong at the weights. Paul Midgley is always a trainer worth looking out for in this race. He’s won it twice before and this year he relies on Lethal Nymph with Aiden Brookes taking off what could be a very valuable 5lbs.
This horse handles a bit of an ease and he ran a blinder last time out at York (5f gd/sft). He was beaten 2.25L for the win off 82 and he races off a 4lbs higher mark today. Even though he is 4lbs wrong at the weights, I still think the 5yo could go well.
Decent Mark
At Newcastle in March he was beat 1.75L off 89 in a decent handicap over 5f. With Brookes’ claim, he’s effectively 8lbs lower than that here. Last year, when trained by Clive Cox, he ran blinders at Doncaster (6f sft) and Ascot (6f gd) off marks of 91 and 92 respectively. His last win came in September 2022 off 89 so he is on a decent mark.
It must be said that all four of his career wins have come at 6f. However, he has placed twice from three runs at 5f and his recent form suggests that he might be best suited by the minimum distance these days. He showed lots of speed at York last time and if he handles this downhill track, he can outrun his odds of 16/1.
2024 Epsom Derby Meeting Tip: Lethal Nymph e/w @ 16/1 (4 places)
4.30 – Betfred Derby (Group 1)
The big one. Sixteen run and City Of Troy is clinging on to favouritism by his fingertips. The Champion 2yo ran an absolute shocker in the 2000 Guineas but Aidan O’Brien is adamant he has trained on and grown to 16.1 hands (chin measurement). Will he bounce back? I don’t think so but you never know what might happen when O’Brien is involved.
He also saddles the second favourite, Los Angeles. He is 3/3 in his career so far and he landed a G3 on his return at Leopardstown (10f gd). The son of Camelot looks a stronger horse than his stablemate and this could be a big opportunity for Wayne Lordan.
Euphoric will likely make the pace for City Of Troy and Los Angeles under Declan McDonogh. Given that he only has a length to find with the latter horse, he could be a shade overpriced at odds of 33/1.
Ground Key For Star
Long time followers will know I am a big Adrian Murray fan. He runs Dallas Star here for Amo but it looks like he won’t get the testing ground he seems to relish. It was heavy when he won his trial at Leopardstown, it was soft when he won at Bath last season and he may well need the heavens to open to have a chance.
The one I have come down on at a decent e/w price is Deira Mile. By Camelot, this colt is trained by Owen Burrows. He came into the Futurity Stakes last year after three defeats in maiden/novice company but he ran an absolutely huge race to finish fourth in that Group 1. He was only 2.75L behind the winner Ancient Wisdom, 0.75L behind God’s Window and 0.5L ahead of Dancing Gemini.
Drawn High
Burrows’ charge reappeared in a Windsor novice (10f gd) and he shed his maiden tag in facile fashion. He is drawn in stall 14 which isn’t too much of a worry as five of the last seven winners were drawn in 10 or higher.
Deira Mile still lacks a bit of experience, so the addition of cheekpieces should hopefully sharpen up his concentration when he comes under pressure. He’s already beaten Dancing Gemini (12/1 here), he got closer to Ancient Wisdom last year than Ambiente Friendly (7/1 here) and he’s also beaten Bellum Justum before.
Jim Crowley has cost us a couple of winners with poor rides in the past, hopefully he can make amends on Deira Mile on Saturday. At odds of 25/1, he is the e/w selection.
