2024 European Championship R1 Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 European Championship R1 betting preview. James posted his outright preview and tips yesterday, check that out here.

2024 European Championship R1

Looking at the match results for the first round since 2018 (when all 32 players were ranked and 1 played 32 etc) the higher ranked players (16th-1st) have won just about 60% of the matches.

Gian van Veen vs. Ritchie Edhouse

Van Veen has lost six of his last ten senior matches but he hasn’t been doing much wrong. He won his place in the World Youth Championship last week and that will have boosted his confidence. We last saw him going 2-0 up vs. Luke Humphries at the weekend, before Humphries lit the afterburners, won 6-2, and went on the win the title.

Van Veen has good memories of this event, as he reached the semi-final last year. He started off with a 107 average and a 6-1 win over Heta, before beating Gurney and MVG.

Edhouse has lost five of his last ten matches, and five of his last seven. While Van Veen has been playing quite consistently, Edhouse has been blowing hot and cold. He hit a 120 average three weeks ago, but there have been three sub 90s and a 90 average.

Edhouse has played in one European Championship and lost his first round match 2-6 to Gerwyn Price. He has had a good season but he is not playing quite as well as he was earlier in the year when he was in great form. Now, he is just hard to call.

Their H2H record is 3-0 to Van Veen including a 6-4 win in the Euro Tour in April. That was around the time that Edhouse was in top form, and he averaged 98 in that defeat.

Gian van Veen is the 1.61 favourite and he has covered a -1.5 leg handicap is all three of their previous matches.

2024 European Championship R1 tip: 1 point Gian van Veen to win -1.5 legs @ 2.00 with Betvictor

Gerwyn Price vs. Daryl Gurney

The H2H record here is 12-4 to Price, but they have also had no less than four draws in the Premier League. Price has won seven of his last ten matches, Gurney five. Superchin has won three of his six first round matches in this event, Price seven from nine.

Price is the 1.50 favourite, Gurney 2.63. It was Gurney who won their last match, 6-3 in the second round of the World Series finals last month, and Price looks short enough at those odds. If Gurney can play somewhere near his best, he can give Price a problem. They have played nine best of eleven matches and seven have been over 9.5 legs. Price has won four 6-4.

Over 9.5 legs is 2.00 and a repeat of their 2023 first round match, which Price won 6-4, is 6.10. I will take the overs.

2024 European Championship R1 tip: 1 point over 9.5 legs @ 2.10 with Betfred, Skybet

Ross Smith vs. Luke Woodhouse

The 2022 champion, Ross Smith has been struggling lately, losing six of his last ten matches. In fact he has lost five of his last six, which is not the kind of form you want going into a Major Championship. Not least one where you are defending £120k of ranking money.

Woodhouse is having his best ever season and is knocking on the door of the top 32. His recent form is not great, losing five of his last ten matches. He has lost four of his last five, so much like Smith is coming here not in great form. He did take Humphries and MVG to deciding legs in those last ten, and he lost a cracking game against Van den Bergh in the Grand Prix, so his form is not quite as bad as it looks.

It would be fair to say that Smith’s poor matches have been worse than Woodhouse’s poor ones. Smith relies on his power scoring to win matches and that has been very in and out lately.

Their H2H record is 5-2 to Smith and he is the better player, but this is all about who is best tonight. Woodhouse has gone out in the first round of the last two Majors and he will want to rectify that, and he is not without a chance.

Smith is the 1.53 favourite, and he makes no appeal at those odds. Woodhouse is 2.70 which does offer better value, but I will take him on the handicap, just in case he has another deciding leg loss.

2024 European Championship R1 tip: Luke Woodhouse to win +1.5 legs @ 2.00 with Livescore

Gary Anderson vs. Stephen Bunting

The match of the day in most people’s eyes. Anderson, master of the floor events, vs. Bunting, who has actually made more finals than Anderson on the floor this season. Bunting has reached five Players Championship finals but failed to win any.

His stage form in 2024 sees two Euro Tour finals and three quarter finals. He had two World Series quarter finals from two starts. He won the Masters at the start of the season and reached the quarter final of the UK Open.

Bunting has played in eight European Championships and only once made it beyond the second round, but he has only lost two first round matches. Clearly, Bunting has difficulty in crossing the winning line when it comes to tournament wins, but he wins plenty of matches trying.

His recent form sees six wins from his last ten, and he usually plays well, but can fluff his chances, usually in the latter stages.

Anderson Major Form A Worry

Anderson has won three titles in 2024, and that is the big difference between the two. Anderson finds winning easier. His Major form does leave something to be desired, in recent years at least. A semi-final and a quarter final in the last three years.

In this event, Anderson has not played since 2016, when he lost in the first round, but he was runner up in 2015. He has lost half of his six first round matches.

Anderson has a win rate of 76% in 2024 thanks to his prowess on the floor. He only played in two Euro Tour events, won one, (he was lucky in my opinion) and that was enough for him to not have to play in anymore Euro Tours. He hates the travelling, and getting to Dortmund will have been an imposition for him.

Anderson has won seven of his last ten matches. In the Majors, he lost in the second round of the Grand Prix, lost in the first round of the Matchplay, won a couple of matches in the UK Open and at the World Championships. It is a pretty ordinary record on the big TV stages. He will say he doesn’t care, and he prefers the floor events these days. I don’t believe him, but if it is true, that makes it easier for Bunting.

Scotsman Leads H2H

Their H2H record is 14-5 to Anderson. They have not met on TV since 2021 and have not met this year. It will help Anderson that he will get the pace of play he needs to win. Any hint of slow pace and he becomes vulnerable.

Anderson is the 1.75 favourite, Bunting 2.10. Fair enough given their H2H record, but Anderson makes no appeal at the odds.

Anderson is ranked first for 180s per leg over the last twelve months, Bunting 11th. Anderson is 0.40 per leg, Bunting 0.32. However, in the ranked Majors over the last 12 months, Anderson is 0.31. Again underlining the difference between his floor form, and Major form. I was thinking that evens for over 6.5 180’s in the match was a bet, but it is probably about right. No bet.

2024 European Championship R1 tip: No Bet

Ryan Searle vs. Raymond van Barneveld

Searle is in better form, winning seven of his last ten matches, Barney five. Their H2H record is 7-2 to Searle, but five of their eight best of eleven leg matches went to a deciding leg, Searle winning four 6-5. Six of the eight went over 9.5 legs and an overs match here would be no surprise.

2024 European Championship R1 tip: 1 point over 9.5 legs @ 2.00 with Betfair

2024 European Championship R1 tip: 0.5 point Searle to win 6.5 @ 7.00 with Betfair

Michael van Gerwen vs. Gabriel Clemens

MVG has played fifteen first round matches in the European Championships and lost just three, but two in the last five years. His recent form is very good, with eight wins from his last ten matches. Clemens has lost five of his last ten matches. He has played four first round matches in this event and lost the lot.

Their H2H record is 8-1 to MVG, but Clemens finally broke his duck in ET10, beating MVG 6-4. Normal service was resumed in ET11, with Van Gerwen winning 6-2.

I suspect MVG will be looking forward to this match. He is the 1.36 favourite, Clemens 3.40. MVG usually wins quite easily. Their average leg score is 6.33 – 3.22 and in best of 11 leg matches 5.66 – 3.50. Van Gerwen is 1.65 with a -1.5 handicap so there is no great value in this match. No bet.

2024 European Championship R1 tip: No Bet

Martin Schindler vs. Dirk van Duijvenbode

The number 1 seed plays number 32, but it is not a simple as that. Schindler has played and lost four first round matches in the European Championships. Van Duijvenbode was a quarter finalist in 2020, and a semi-finalist in 2022. Their H2H record is 4-2 to Schindler, but on TV, 2-0 to Dirk. They have played four best of eleven leg matches and all four were over 9.5 legs.

Their recent forms sees both winning six of their last ten matches, and both have played some good darts. This has the makings of a very good match.

Schindler has home field advantage and it must be said that Dirk is very fragile mentally. If he lets the crowd get to him, he could crumble, but if he can start well, he can keep them quiet, and he is playing well.

Schindler is the 1.83 favourite, Van Duijvenbode 2.08 and the money is going down on the Dutchman. I just hope we get a thriller and think we might.

2024 European Championship R1 tip: 1 point over 9.5 legs @ 2.00 with Betfair

Dave Chisnall vs. Michael Smith

Chizzy hasn’t been firing on all cylinders lately, losing five of his last ten. His record in the first round in this event is decent, winning eight from twelve.

Michael Smith is in better form, winning seven of his last ten. His first round record here is seven from ten. Their H2H record is close with Smith having a marginal advantage at 11-9. On TV it is 3-2 to Smith. They have not met since 2022.

Michael Smith is the 1.79 favourite, Chisnall 2.10. I do have Smith as the favourite, but 1.80 is about right. No bet.

2024 European Championship R1 tip: No Bet

-JamesPunt