2024 German Darts GP Betting Preview

James Punt was on fire on Night 9 of the Premier League in Belfast. He landed three winners from four tips, including one at 13/2. He is back in action for the 2024 German Darts GP which starts on Saturday, his outright betting preview is below.

2024 German Darts GP

The second Euro Tour event of 2024 comes from the Kulturhalle Zenith, Munich, Germany. Note that this is a Saturday start with the final day being on Monday.

Michael Smith is the defending champion, having beaten Nathan Aspinall in last year’s final. Other winners in this year’s field include Michael van Gerwen (x3 2017-2019) and Luke Humphries who won in 2022. Rob Cross was runner up in 2017 and a semi-finalist in 2019. Damon Heta has reached the semi-finals for the last two years.

Gary Anderson was seeded fourteenth but has withdrawn to continue his recuperation after a shoulder injury ruled him out of PC6 a couple of weeks ago.

Ryan Searle moves up to fourteen, Pietreczko fifteen and, if my calculations are correct, Stephen Bunting becomes the sixteenth and final seed who enters in the second round on Sunday. Luke Littler, who won ET1, did not qualify for this event.

The Seeds

1 Dave Chisnall

Comes here on the back of winning PC6 two weeks ago. He had started the year in poor form but has improved in the last six weeks or so and he is a contender once again. Chizzy has won eight of his last ten matches and seems to have found more in the way of consistency.

2 Luke Humphries

Flying high in the Premier League and a multiple Euro Tour title winner (including this one in 2022), Humpries has won eight of his last ten matches. Always on the shortlist.

3 Gerwyn Price

Last won a title back in November 2023 but he is priced (9.50) like he is in top form, which he is scoring wise, but not win rate wise (55%). There are no prizes for being the best scorer. Poor value. Price has lost six of his last ten matches, and went down 5-6 to Aspinall in last night’s PL. That was his third 5-6 defeat in his last four matches. Where is the fire in his belly?

4 Damon Heta

With a seasonal win rate of 74%, The Heat has to be on the shortlist. Heta has won just one Euro Tour title, back in 2022, but he is a regular feature at the business end of these events. Heta won PC 4 six weeks ago & has won six of his last ten matches. He is playing well, with occasional lapses, but his title win rate is disappointing, compared to his match win rate.

5 Dirk van Duijvenbode

It looks like Dirk is back to full fitness and his form is very much on the up. Runner up to Chizzy in PC6 a couple of weeks ago and he has won seven of his last ten matches. His consistency isn’t quite there yet, but his fight is back. He won three deciding legs on the way to the final of PC6 and when he gets more consistency into his performances, he will be a threat.

6 Josh Rock

With a seasonal win rate of just 36%, Rock can be passed over. He has lost seven of his last ten matches and while he is still playing some good stuff, his confidence is in the bin.

7 Rob Cross

Very much in the same boat as Gerwyn Price. Cross is playing very well, but his seasonal win rate of just 47% is a poor return on that high level of performance. He did make the final of ET1, averaging 108, but lost 7-8 to Luke Littler.

He has played well in this event before and another good run is always possible, but is he any great value? Odds of 21.00 are too short about a player who has won just five of his last ten matches and lost four in a row. He was poor against Peter Wright last night.

8 Michael van Gerwen

A lack of consistency is noticeable in MVG’s game. His fitness has been an issue, but unlike Gary Anderson, who has stopped playing to recover from his shoulder injury, MVG has had injections and carried on. His performances have ranged from the sublime to quite underwhelming. It is hard to get behind a player whose fitness is unclear.

MVG is the 6.00 second favourite but those odds are too short for a player who is far from his best form. He averaged 105 when beating Michael Smith last night, but he backed that up with a 94 average and 3-6 loss to Luke Littler.

9 Jonny Clayton

The Ferret has a seasonal win rate of 65% which means his form is returning, but while he has won seven of his last ten matches, there have been four sub 90 averages, so the consistency is just not there yet. He played two good matches in ET1, but then averaged 80.8 in a 2-6 loss to Pietreczko in the quarter final. He has a tough draw, with MVG lined up for the third round.

10 Danny Noppert

Another player whose consistency is not good enough to think he is going to win a tournament. He rarely has an absolute stinker, but low 90s averages are going to get found out at some point.

11 Michael Smith

There have been some positive signs that Smith is starting to find his best form. The consistency and scoring has not been there for a while but he has started hitting more big averages. Cut out the sub 90s and his game is trending in the right direction. He has won six of his last ten and averaged 101when going down 4-6 to MVG last night.

12 Ross Smith 

Has this Smith also turned a corner? Ross Smith has been playing well for a long time, but just couldn’t pick up many wins. It didn’t matter how well he played, he just kept finding players who were better. That wasn’t going to last forever and he finally got some rewards at the recent Players Championship events.

Smudger reached the semi-finals of PC5 and PC6. Smith still tops the most 180s per leg rate in the last 12 months and he has the game to beat anyone when he is on it, and there are signs that he is getting the results his game deserves. A dark horse?

13 Krzysztof Ratajski

Continues to struggle for wins. Ratajski has lost five of his last ten matches but he has put in some good performances, including a 115 average in PC5, but he followed it up with an 87.5 and a 4-6 loss to Daryl Gurney in the next round. He is probably best avoided as a betting object right now.

14 Ryan Searle

The owner of a 76% win rate in 2024. Traditionally fast out of the blocks at the start of the year, Heavy Metal made three Players Championship finals in February, winning one. However, his most recent form sees five defeats in his last ten matches. He made a rare ET quarter final in Belgium, but his consistency has tailed off somewhat.

15 Ricardo Pietreczko

Luckily this is a home tournament for the pugnacious German. He is getting a reputation for being a bit of a knob, getting stroppy in defeat, and he will get pelters at some venues. He lost the semi-final in Belgium to Littler and gave the superstar some verbals.

Pikachu hadn’t played well and he just ended up looking like a petulant child. His recent form sees six wins from his last ten, but his scoring has been light and he looks vulnerable against even modest players right now.

16 Stephen Bunting

Promoted to the top 16 thanks to Anderson’s withdrawal. Bunting reached the final of PC5 two weeks ago, but he lost the final 1-8 to Raymond van Barneveld. He was a quarter finalist in ET1 and he played well that weekend with a couple of 102 averages. He has won seven of his last ten matches and looks to be in decent nick.

Notable Non Seeded Players

Nathan Aspinall

A little too much inconsistency to think he could repeat his run to the final here last year. He reached another PL final last night, but he didn’t have to be especially good to beat Price and Wright. The Asp has lost five of his last ten matches.

Dimitri van den Bergh

The UK Open winner has yet to win a Euro Tour title. His form on TV remains very strong, but on the floor, and on the Euro Tour, he isn’t the same player.

Daryl Gurney

Has won eight of his last ten matches and he is starting to string more wins together. However, his stage form in 2024 is played four and lost four. He lost 0-6 to Jermaine Wattimena in ET1 but bounced back to reach the semi-final of PC6 a couple of weeks ago.

That was his best run since last September. Still hard to fancy for the whole tournament, but a decent run is possible, if he can bring his floor form to the stage. His prowess on the outer ring has never been better. Superchin is now ranked second for checkout % over the last 12 months.

Raymond van Barneveld

Winner of PC6 recently, Barney has won 73% of his matches in 2024. He has won nine of his last ten, but a bit like Daryl Gurney, his best stuff has been on the floor. Also, like Gurney, Barney’s biggest strength is on the outer ring, ranked 14th with 41%.

Barney is a player who can win with lowish averages, and a good run wouldn’t be a surprise, but how would he cope with having to play four matches on Monday?

The 2024 German Darts GP Draw

With the new qualifying criteria, there are more ‘top players’ in the first round, so some of the seeds are going to get handed a tougher draw than others.

1st Quarter

Dave Chisnall is the top seed but he has been handed a tough second match. He will face the winner of the Van den Bergh vs. Clemens first round match.

The other three seeds in the quarter are MVG, Bunting and Clayton. Chizzy struggles against MVG, but Van Gerwen is not at his best. Bunting has reached two quarter finals and a final of the last four Euro Tour events and is in decent form. He is likely to face the in form Jermaine Wattimena in the second round, and the Dutchman has already beaten Bunting in 2024.

There is no standout candidate to come through the quarter, but Bunting makes the most appeal.

2nd Quarter

Damon Heta looks to have a decent draw. He will likely face home favourite, Martin Schindler, in the second round, but Schindy, dangerous as he is, cannot be said to be in great form, losing five of his last ten. Chris Dobey is a likely third round opponent and the Aussie is 6-0 with Dobey.

Heta has reached the semi-final here for the last two years, and there is the rub with Heta, he loses a lot of semi-finals. He lost four Euro Tour semi-finals last year and two in 2022. He is giving himself plenty of chances and the question is, is he due one, or is he a serial bottler?

The other player in the quarter who is an interesting proposition is the former European Champion, Ross Smith. He is in great form and he is due a few breaks. He faces the winner of the Dolan vs. Soutar match, and he would be favourite to win that.

The third round would see him face Van Duijvenbode (and I’d pay money to see that), or Aspinall. Either would be tough, but winnable. If he were to reach a quarter final against Heta, Smith is 9-3 against the Aussie.

3rd Quarter

Luke Humphries is the tournament favourite and rightly so. However, this time last year we were getting odds in the mid to high teens, now he is just 4.50. Good value if he wins, but he has only won one of his last thirteen Euro Tour events.

He did make six finals form eleven starts in 2023, but he isn’t a great e/w shot at the odds now. He looks to have a good path to the quarter final, but who could he face? The bottom half of this quarter is packed with talent.

Cross and Noppert are the seeds, and I’d happily oppose both. Of the players entering at the first round stage we have Wade, Gurney, Barney and Van Veen. Barney has just picked up a title, Gurney his first semi-final for some months. Wade isn’t in great form, but Van Veen is a dangerman. I’d still take Humphries to make the semi-final.

4th Quarter

An interesting quarter with a few weak looking seeds, but some interesting first round entries. Gerwyn Price just can’t convert good scoring into match wins. Josh Rock is bang out of form. Ryan Searle has lost that super floor form of a few weeks ago and is not a great traveller.

That leaves defending champion, Michael Smith at the very bottom of the draw. Bully Boy is playing some good stuff but not really getting much out of it. He lost to MVG last night, but MVG averaged 105 and played well.

Smith has won six Euro Tour titles over the years and he has won one in each of the last two years. I would not say that he is a Euro Tour specialist, such as MVG, or Humphries, but he can win, and of the four seeds he looks more likely to make the semi-final.

Smith will face the winner of the Menzies vs. De Decker match, and both those players are potential banana skins. If he can get over that match, there is nobody else in the quarter that Smith should fear.

2024 German Darts GP Ante Post Selections

This looks like a tournament Luke Humphries should win. He is the best player and is in great form. That Luke Littler isn’t playing is a big bonus for Cool Hand. However, odds of 4.50 are not giving much away. I will take a few small punts on players with better odds and hope we can get a finalist.

Stepehen Bunting has been getting the hang of the Euro Tour recently. He has won seven of his last ten matches and of course won the Masters at the start of the season. He does not win as many titles as perhaps he should, but he is a more confident player these days.

2024 German Darts GP Tip: 0.5 point e/w Stephen Bunting to win @ 26.00 generally available

Ross Smith is finally getting the wins he deserves and he has the firepower to live with the best. He has won ten of his last twelve matches and is in great form.

His Euro Tour record, it must be said, is rubbish. In his last seven events, he has only gone beyond the second round three times and his best result was a semi-final. He faces a tough third round match and that is the key. Win that, and the game is on.

2024 German Darts GP Tip: 0.5 point e/w Ross Smith to win @ 34.00 with Skybet

Michael Smith has his game heading in the right direction and hopefully a return to the scene of his last Euro Tour win can spark him up. His second round match is the key. If he faces Mike de Decker, he could well be heading home early.

He has suffered three heavy defeats to the Belgian, a 6-2 and a 6-1 last year, and another 6-1 in Belgium three weeks ago. However, De Decker is 0-2 vs. Menzies and their first round match could be the answer to Smith’s prayers.

2024 German Darts GP Tip: 0.5 point e/w Michael Smith to win @ 19.00 with Unibet, BET365

With no Formula 1 this weekend, I’ll be able to spend more time on the darts. There will be a first round preview posted tomorrow morning.

-JamesPunt