2024 Grand Slam Darts Friday Preview

James Punt landed two more winners from his three tips last night and was a missed double away from the hat-trick. We move into the last eight now and our 175/1 fancy Martin Lukeman is back in action. Check out James’ 2024 Grand Slam Darts Friday match previews and tips below.

Cameron Menzies vs. Mickey Mansell

Even with this format, it is unusual to find a player who has played four matches and lost two, to be in a quarter final, but that is what Menzies has managed. He has won seven of his last ten matches but he has not played particularly well in the tournament so far.

His average is 93.16, considerably down on his seasonal average of 96.28. He played well when beating Schindler 5-2 in his opening match, but since then he has averaged 90.44, 89.80 and 93.50. He lost to Danny Noppert and Beau Greaves, heavily to the latter.

Mansell has won eight of his last ten matches and has a tournament average of 97.88. He did lose to Luke Humphries, but he has played better than Menzies so far. Their H2H record is 2-1 to Menzies. None of the three matches have been close, with two 6-2 and a 6-3.

Big Occasion

Neither player is going to be intimidated by their opponent, but they might be by the occasion. This is for a place in a Major semi-final, and a guaranteed £50,000. Menzies has had a couple of big quarter finals in the BDO, but nothing on this scale and certainly not in the PDC. Before his run this week, Mansell had only ever won eight matches in ranked Majors, and that is since 2011. Both are in unfamiliar territory.

If they were playing someone, like say, Gary Anderson, they would have an underdog’s mentality, but here, both will have realistic expectations of winning. That invites a player to get ahead of themselves. Whoever can keep their head screwed on, concentrate on the game in hand and grind out a performance should be able to win it.

Mansell Playing Well

And that sounds a bit like Mickey Mansell. Menzies is the better player, but he is not playing like that this week. Mansell has played well, better than Menzies and if he can just keep that up, he wins. Menzies is playing with his B game, and that will get found out sooner or later.

The matches are now best of 31 legs, again, new territory for both players and we don’t know who is going to be able to stay concentrated over a longer period of time. Who will react best to the inevitable dips in their standard during the match?

All I can do is base judgement on what we have seen so far, and that is Mansell being the better player. Both players have beaten James Wade, but Mansell also beat Danny Noppert, who Menzies lost to in the group stage, so there is a bit of a form line there.

2024 Grand Slam Darts Friday Tip: 1 point Mickey Mansell to win @ 2.75 generally available

Rob Cross vs. Martin Lukeman

An interesting match and not just because we are on Martin Lukeman at 176.00. It is a repeat of their group match, which Lukeman won 5-3. Cross was 3-0 up but he completely lost his doubling ability and Smash took full advantage.

Of course, this is a very different situation. It is not the ultra-short first to five leg format, but the very long first to sixteen. It is a format that Cross will have played in many times before, but it will be all new to Lukeman.

When two players have met in the group stage, and then met again later in the tournament, the player who won the first match, has also won the second match at a rate of 59%, or 20 out of 34. (Thanks to @FEBsDATA for that little gem).

Lukeman has never played more than a first to ten leg format, so this is a bit longer. He has played in two Major quarter finals and lost 3-2 to Aspinall in the 2022 World Matchplay and lost 5-10 to Van den Bergh in this year’s UK Open. Both of those players went on the win the tournament. Spooky.

Lukeman has won his last eight matches, but his tournament average is 94.07, which compares poorly with his 104.39 that managed in his four qualifying matches. He has more in the tank, but will he be able to access it?

Cross Scoring Well

Cross has lost five of his last ten matches, including one to Lukeman. His tournament average is 96.32. he has been losing matches, despite scoring well. His average was ten points higher when he lost to Lukeman, for example. Cross is much more experienced in Major quarter finals. While Lukeman has played two and lost two, Cross has played nineteen ranking Major quarter finals and won ten. He has lost his last three, however, all this year.

Their H2H record is 3-2 to Cross and he is the 1.40 favourite, with Lukeman 3.00.

We have had a total of four bets on Lukeman, three match bets and a group bet. He has won the lot to yield a 9.83 point profit. We have 0.5 point on him outright, and he owes us nothing. You can lay him off at around 29.00 on Betfair, but it a very small stakes bet and I am happy to ride it out.

Cross Too Short

Cross deserves to be favourite, but 1.40 looks a bit short. He has been losing plenty of matches lately and he is no stick on. Lukeman has not yet played his best, and it may be that he doesn’t. This is all a new experience for him and we don’t know how he will react to it.

Cross might just have those three losing quarter finals on his mind, and if things get tight, he certainly will. Lukeman will be aware that the outsiders can win. Having Ritchie Edhouse as one of his practice partners showed him that.

I am quite happy to go again with Smash, reinvest some of that profit and hope he can repeat his group stage win.

2024 Grand Slam Darts Friday Tip: 1 point Martin Lukeman to win @ 3.00 with BET365, Livescorebet

-JamesPunt