2024 Grand Slam Darts Wednesday Preview

It was one of those nights on Tuesday for James Punt. Mike De Decker saved the blank but apart from that, nothing went right. On the bright side, Van Gerwen is out, Martin Lukeman is on the easy side of the draw and if our 175/1 e/w selection can beat Ross Smith, who knows what might happen. We now move into the business end of the tournament, check out James’ 2024 Grand Slam Darts Wednesday match previews and tips below.

Danny Noppert vs. Mickey Mansell

Both players are in good form, Noppert winning eight of his last ten matches, Mansell seven. Noppert has averaged 99.67 across his three matches and continues to play with a great deal of consistency. Mansell has won seven of his last ten and has averaged 97.33. Not a lot between them.

Their H2H record is 7-5 to Noppert and in 2024, 1-1. They have only met in one ranked Major before, a UK Open match back in 2019, which Mansell won 6-1. Their last match was a month ago and that was a 6-5 win for Noppert.

Noppert is the 1.34 favourite and Mansell 3.75. Given how both have played so far, and their H2H record, I would say that Noppert is too short. He is the better player, he has a better record in Majors, but he has never got beyond the second round of this event.

He has played three and lost three. Narrow defeats to Anderson and Price, and most recently a 4-10 loss to Bunting last year. Mansell of course, is making his tournament debut.

Mansell did lose a match in the group stage, a 1-5 loss to Luke Humphries, a dead rubber match. While Noppert won all three, dropping eight legs.

Is Mansell Value?

If Noppert is too short, is Mansell any value at 3.75? Arguably yes, but there is no doubt that Noppert is the better player and deserves to be favourite. However, Mansell is playing somewhere near the top of his game.

Since his first qualifying match, he has hit three ton plus averages, including a 110, and his worst performances saw three 94 averages. That is solid, to very good form. If he plays to his ton plus average, winning is on the menu, if he shoots mid-nineties I would fancy Noppert to be too good.

Longer Format

We are at the best of nineteen leg stage of the tournament, which tends to favour the better players, and the weaker player has less of a puncher’s chance. Mansell has been around for a long time, but he hasn’t been there, seen it and got the T-shirt. In the last four years he has played just one best of ten leg match. That was at this year’s UK Open and he lost that 3-10 to Chris Dobey.

In the same period, Noppert has played twenty eight best of nineteen leg matches and won seventeen. Many have been close matches. 61% ended with over 16.5 legs, including eight of his last nine. Given these two have had two close matches, albeit in a shorter format, in 2024, I will back over 16.5 legs and hope that Mansell can hang in for long enough.

2024 Grand Slam Darts Wednesday Tip: 1 point Over 16.5 legs @ 2.10 with Betfred, Skybet

James Wade vs. Cameron Menzies

Wade has won eight of his last ten matches, but in his last two group matches he only averaged 87. That was enough to beat Humphries 5-3, and Rowby-John Rodriguez 5-1. He lost his opening match 3-5 to Mickey Mansell, despite averaging 103 in that match. Confusing. He blamed the loss on the pace of play.

Menzies has won seven of his last ten matches, but only won one group match. He lost 4-5 to Noppert, and 1-5 to Beau Greaves. I wasn’t impressed by either performance. He did play well to beat Schindler, but he was poor in those last two matches.

Their H2H record is 5-3 to Wade, but in 2024, it is 3-1 to Menzies. The last meeting was last month, a 6-2 win just two weeks ago. Menzies has improved his game in 2024, so that form is more representative.

Recent Form

Recent H2H form says that Menzies looks the pick, but the way he played his last two matches was eye-catchingly poor. Anything like those performances, and this will be a stroll for Wade.

Wade is the 1.80 favourite, Menzies 2.10. Wade has reached a final and two semi-finals in his last three Grand Slams, so he knows where the toilets are. He has also lost nine second round matches, the last in 2019. Menzies’ best run in a ranking PDC Major is a fourth round in UK Open this year. I have to go with Wade here.

2024 Grand Slam Darts Wednesday Tip: 1 point James Wade to win @ 1.80 with Livescorebet

Martin Lukeman vs. Ross Smith

Smash has been a profitable player for us so far, not least for winning his group at 6.00. He is now a 41.00 shot to win the whole thing. He wasn’t at his best when beating Cross and Gates, but they were both 5-3 wins. He has won eight of his last ten matches with seven 97+ averages. Hopefully he can perform around that level tonight.

Ross Smith has won seven of his last ten matches and he played well against Connor Scutt, after two poor performances against Edhouse and Chisnall. He hasn’t been playing with much consistency, hitting four sub 90 averages in his last ten matches.

Their H2H record is 3-1 to Lukeman and he won their only TV match 3-2 in the 2022 Grand Prix. Smith has not beaten Lukeman since 2021. In 2024 it is 2-0 to Smash.

Ross Smith is the 1.67 favourite, with Lukeman at 2.45. I would have it a lot closer, and Lukeman just edging favouritism. He doesn’t owe us anything and I am happy to back him again.

2024 Grand Slam Darts Wednesday Tip: 1 point Martin Lukeman to win @ 2.45 with Ladbrokes

Ritchie Edhouse vs. Rob Cross

Edhouse is in great form, winning eight of his last ten matches. He has been a bit inconsistent, with four sub 91 averages, but two of last three matches have seen ton plus numbers. He only dropped five legs in his three group matches.

Rob Cross has lost five of his last ten matches. He beat Gates and Wright in the group phase, but lost to Martin Lukeman. He was 3-0 up in the match and lost 3-5. He is generally playing well enough but his conversion rate is disappointing, and then he does just produce poor performances on occasions. He has lost in the second round in four of his previous six Grand Slams.

Their H2H record is 4-3 to Cross but in 2024, it is 2-1 to Edhouse. They have not played since May, and Edhouse has become a Major champion since then.

Rob Cross is the 1.73 favourite, with Edhouse 2.30. I like a player who is feeling confident and Edhouse is certainly that. He coped well with longer format matches at the European Championship and he has dropped that journeyman tag.

2024 Grand Slam Darts Wednesday Tip: 1 point Ritchie Edhouse to win @ 2.30 with SpreadEx

Outright Outlook

I did say that I would revisit the outright market after the group stage was finished. I will look at the top half of the draw today, and the bottom tomorrow.

Based on my predictions above, I would expect the first quarter final to be between Wade and Noppert. Wade has a slight advantage in their H2H record and he won their only TV match, a 10-5 win in this year’s Matchplay. Noppert does tend to lose a lot of quarter finals, and Wade has won three in a row here.

Lukeman vs. Edhouse might not be everyone’s idea of a quarter final, but It would not surprise me. Picking the winner of that would be tough, but we are on Lukeman at huge odds, so something on Edhouse would not be silly. Their H2H record is 3-2 to Lukeman, but it really would be a coin toss. Wade is 2-2 with Edhouse, and 3-2 vs. Lukeman.

We are on Lukeman, but who to add? Wade is a 21.00 shot, as is Edhouse. Given Wade’s record here, I’ll take him, but hopefully Smash can get there.

2024 Grand Slam Darts outright Tip: 0.5 point e/w James Wade to win the Grand Slam @ 21.00 with Betfred

-JamesPunt