2024 Haydock & Ascot Saturday Preview – DS
2024 Haydock & Ascot Saturday Preview
We just about avoided the dreaded blank last weekend. Gorak ran a grand race to place at Chester but the less said about the rest of my selections, the better. This weekend the Sprint Cup is the feature and we also have some decent handicaps to get stuck into. Hopefully we can nick a few places and maybe even a winner, 2024 Haydock & Ascot Saturday tips are blow.
1.15 Haydock – Superior Mile Stakes (Group 3)
On Thursday, the ground at Haydock was good to soft. Today, it was the same and with light showers forecast in the early hours of Saturday morning, I am going to presume it’ll be good to soft, or good, good to soft in places. That’s good news for Cicero’s Gift. The market leader is unbeaten on easy ground (4/4) and 0/2 on good or quicker.
Holloway Boy is another horse that will enjoy an ease in the ground. He’s been thereabouts in big, valuable handicaps the last thrice (including on soft ground) and maybe William Buick will be able to crack the code on him this weekend. Clove Hitch and Prague will both act on the ground too but the bookies haven’t missed either of them and the more I look at this race, the trickier it gets. On a busy day there’s better bets to be had elsewhere. No bet.
2024 Haydock & Ascot Saturday Tip: No Bet
1.35 Ascot – bet365 Handicap (Class 2)
Joe Leavy did us a big favour on Faustus a few weeks ago and maybe he can do us another turn on Grey’s Monument in this valuable 7f handicap. The ground at Ascot was soft at the time of writing on Friday and there was a good spill of rain forecast on Friday. It looks like it will definitely be testing out there and Leavy’s mount, Grey’s Monument, has run well in those sort of conditions before.
This horse hasn’t won since landing successive handicaps back in 2022 as a 2yo. Those wins came on good to soft and he then ran a massive race in the G3 Horris Hill on heavy on his last juvenile start at Newbury. In 2023, all but one of his runs came in pattern company and he got off the mark on his final start of the year in a 1m Listed race at Kempton.
This year he finished a very creditable third to Charyn on soft ground at Newbury on his seasonal bow. An average run followed on quicker ground in a York Handicap in May before he bounced back with a 2.25L second off 105 on the AW at Newcastle in June. With Leavy’s claim he is 3lb lower here, he’s proven on the ground and his yard has been amongst the winners recently. At odds of 12/1, back Grey’s Monument e/w.
2024 Haydock & Ascot Saturday Tip: Grey’s Monument e/w @ 12/1 (4 Places) NAP
1.50 Haydock – Betfair Handicap (Class 2)
We backed Filibustering back in May over this C&D. My hopes for soft ground that day were dashed by the warm weather and in the hope that the weather gods are more kind this weekend, I am keeping the faith in Tim Easterby’s 3yo son of Postponed off 2lb lower.
With Amie Waugh’s claim he is actually effectively 7lb lower than he was here in May, and 6lb lower than when he was only beaten 3.25l over 16f here early last month. The ground was probably a shade lively for him that day and he ran another nice race when beaten a similar distance at Newcastle over 16f a couple of weeks ago. David Allan found a fair bit of trouble in that race so he could have finished closer to the winner.
This horse needs a strong pace to aim at and Easterby also runs Flickering Halo in first time cheekpieces here. Joe Fanning is on him and I am hoping he takes on the likely front runner Spaceport for the lead and helps to set it up for a closer.
Filibustering has form figures of 212 when he has run on easy ground. If there is soft in the description on Saturday, hopefully he can stay on late for a place at least at odds of 25/1.
2024 Haydock & Ascot Saturday Tip: Filibustering e/w @ 25/1 NB
2.10 Ascot – Chapel Down Handicap (Heritage)
So which horse is best equipped to cope with the soft conditions in this race? Poniros won his sole start on heavy and on his run at Newbury in May, he looks dangerously treated off a mark of 91. He was beaten 4L by the then 93 rated King’s Gambit off 88, and the winner is now rated 116.
Now, it has to be said that things haven’t exactly gone to plan in two runs since. At Royal Ascot Poniros was far too keen (and wide) in the King George V Stakes (12f, gd/fm) but he still managed to finish within 5.25L of the winner and 3L behind the fourth.
Last time out Poniros was too free again and this time he finished well beaten. He clearly wasn’t concentrating on the job so Amo sent him for a gelding operation and Ralph Beckett has decided to stick a hood on him. If those two changes have the desired effect, there is no doubt that Poniros has the natural ability to take a hand in this race.
His only start on testing ground resulted in a maiden win last October so the return to this sort of a surface is another cause for optimism. Given how hard he has pulled the last twice, he isn’t one to be having the farm on but at odds of 16/1, a modest each way interest is advised.
2024 Haydock & Ascot Saturday Tip: Poniros e/w @ 16/1 (4 places)
2.25 Haydock – Old Borough Cup Handicap (Class 2)
Euchen Glen was very tempting here but at slightly shorter odds, I am going to take a chance on proven Group performer, Grand Alliance. Trained by Charlie Fellowes, this horse lacks a recent run but that is not too much of a worry. He won a G3 on his seasonal reappearance last year so he is capable of going well fresh.
This son of Churchill has had just one run in handicap company, an easy win off 81 in March 2022 at Doncaster (10f, good). His only win since then came in that Newbury G3 but he has run some excellent races in defeat. His best effort since came on his final run of 2023 at Deauville where he was beaten just 1.25L in a G2 and he had the 2022 Cesarewitch winner Run For Oscar almost 2L behind him in fifth.
He now returns from over a year off since that fine effort and the booking of Buick catches the eye. He has had 56 rides for Mrs Susan Roy, winning on 19 of them and finishing in the first four an additional 15 times. Charlie Fellowes has his string in good shape and a bit of cut in the ground will suit so at odds of 14/1, Grand Alliance is the e/w selection.
2024 Haydock & Ascot Saturday Tip: Grand Alliance e/w @ 14/1 (4 places)
2.35 Kempton – September Stakes (Group 3)
A race that looks more than likely to be dominated by those at the head of the market. Hamish is the class act but he has to give a lot of weight away to Kalpana. Lion’s Pride likes it here and has to be considered a threat if at his best but odds of 5/2 make zero appeal whatsoever. A no bet race.
2024 Kempton Saturday Tip: No Bet
3.00 Haydock – Betfair Handicap (Class 2)
A high draw is seen as an advantage at Haydock on the straight track. However, Raasel won this from stall 3 last year and Look Out Louis won it from stall 1 in 2022 so it isn’t impossible to win from a lower draw. Night On Earth (2), Hyperfocus (3) and Toca Madera (5) all like to go forward and in the hope she gets a good tow into the race, it might be worth taking a chance on Designer from stall 1.
John Butler’s daughter of Pearl Secret has failed to fire the last twice. On her final start of 2023 she was beaten 7L in a Listed contest at Ascot and she must have had breathing issues because she had a wind-op in the off-season. On her first start since, she also wore a tongue tie and she trailed in 10L behind Star Of Lady M at York last month.
The handicapper dropped her 3lb to 93 for that effort so she is just 1lb higher than when winning at York last August (5f, gd/fm). She acts on easier ground and the last time David Egan rode she finished an unlucky fourth on good to soft off 92 at Goodwood. Egan has been on board for two of her four wins and he is 2/9 with four top 4 finishes when riding for Butler this year (13/105 overall).
There is a chance that Designer might need a run or two to realise she can breathe freely again so this is another bet where stakes should be kept small. However, her yard is in flying form and she has never run poorly on good to soft ground so at odds of 25/1, a modest e/w interest is advised.
2024 Haydock & Ascot Saturday Tip: Designer e/w @ 25/1
3.15 Kempton – London Mile Series Final (Class 2)
In the hope that George Baker has targeted this race, Hieronymus is a speculative e/w selection here. This 8yo son of Dutch Art likes it at Kempton. All four of his career wins have come at this track at 7f/8f, the last off 86 back in February. He was beaten a head in this race as a 5yo in 2021 off 87 and he is in off a mark of 86 this afternoon.
Now, it cannot be denied that he is very hard to fancy on recent efforts. He has shown virtually nothing since going down by 0.75L over this C&D off 89 back in April and it was pretty disappointing that he didn’t show more on his return to this venue 18 days ago. However, that was a £6k race and this is a £70k race so maybe the purpose of that run was to keep him ticking over for a crack at this bigger prize.
Nicola Currie has been on board for two of his four course wins and overall, she is 14/114 for Baker with 28 top 4 finishes (+£26 to a £1 stake). Like quite a few of today’s selections, this is not one for huge stakes but hopefully Hieronymus can make a bold bid from the front at odds of 28/1.
2024 Haydock & Ascot Saturday Tip: Hieronymus e/w @ 28/1 (4 places)
3.35 Haydock – Sprint Cup Stakes (Group 1)
The big one. As is usually the case, we have a decent sized field for this Group 1 and we’ve backed a few of them before. Annaf is nicely drawn in stall 12 and if the ground continues to dry out it will suit him. He caught pneumonia earlier this year in Dubai and this is his first run since. He wasn’t beaten far in this last year and he is up to winning a G1 sprint at some point, you’d just worry that he might need the run today.
Jasour is another one that will be suited by the ground. He ran a cracker behind Inisherin in the Commonwealth Cup and he re-opposes here. There was only 0.25l between them in the July Cup on their last start and at the prices, Clive Cox’s charge surely represents more value.
Don’t Discount Mossy
At even bigger odds, Moss Tucker can’t be discounted. Once there is no firm in the ground, he should be fine and while he is not drawn well in stall 1, he is a similar sort to Gordon Lord Byron and he managed to win this race from stall 2 back in 2013.
Moss Tucker hacked up on his seasonal return at Naas (5f, yld) and the good, good to firm in places ground was no use to him last time in the G2 Greenlands at the Curragh. Today’s conditions will be much more to his liking and on his last start over 6f on good, good to yielding ground in August last year, he hosed up in the G3 Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh.
If there are a few showers overnight, that will be a plus for Ken Condon’s son of Excelebration and if it dries out too much, I doubt he’ll run. If he is a non-runner, I’ll probably take a chance on Jasour but hopefully there is enough juice in the ground for Mossy and if he is at his best, he can outrun his odds of 33/1 and hopefully sneak into the places.
