2024 Hungarian GP Betting Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Hungarian GP Outright betting preview. We finished with a nice little profit at Silverstone thanks to Lewis Hamilton, hopefully we can continue in the same vein this weekend.

2024 Hungarian GP Preview

We managed a 3 point profit at the British GP. Magnussen let us down for the double points finish bet for Haas, which was frustrating, but we are +14.91 points for the first half of the season, with twelve to go.

The Hungarian GP is this weekend’s race, from the Hungaroring, just outside Budapest. The track has been on the calendar since 1986 and it is a high downforce, quite slow, twisty layout. The track is narrow and dusty and it is a hard track on which to overtake. So, boring processional racing? No, this little gem often produces great and unpredictable races.

Pole No Guarantee

In the last ten races, the pole position driver has only won three times. In 2021 it was won from 8th on the grid and in 2022, from 10th on the grid. Strange things can happen here, big priced winners happen here, and a few drivers picked up their first F1 wins here, including Fernando Alonso, Jenson Button, Heikki Kovalainen and Esteban Ocon.

The lap is short and we have a 70 lap race on Sunday. There are fourteen corners, some long and slow, and there is only one straight of any note. Overtaking opportunities are at the end of the straight, or diving into turn two. If you attack on the outside of turn two, you are then on the inside for turn three and that can be an overtaking spot for the brave.

We do tend to see a lot of accidents in that section from turn one through to turn three. There is not really any other overtaking spots and drivers can get frustrated and overambitious in that opening section of the lap.

Track to suit Ferrari?

It is a very different track from the very fast, long lap of Silverstone. The drivers are on and off the throttle a lot and it might be a better track for Ferrari. Their car has struggled since winning at Monaco, and this circuit is sometimes referred to as Monaco without the walls.

The Ferrari has great acceleration out of slow corners and that will be rewarded here. With Haas running the same power unit, they may well continue their good run of form.

Pirelli are bringing their softest compounds this weekend, the same used at Monaco. With plenty of acceleration out of the slow corners, the rear tyres do get stressed, and the forecast hot temperatures will make that worse.

Brakes also take a bit of a pounding on this layout, and keeping them cool in the heat, and with little in the way of straights to give them a chance to cool, will be challenging.

2024 Hungarian GP: The Weather

The weather in the build up to the race weekend has been wild. Vicious thunderstorms lashed the track, causing flooding and wind damage.

Hot, sunny and dry is the forecast for the rest of the weekend. There will be some clouds on Friday and Saturday, but it will be mostly sunny. Sunday will be the hottest day of the weekend at 33 degrees and sunny. The track temperatures will be very high.

Team-by-Team

Red Bull 

Now just the third best car on the grid. So says the team’s Helmut Marko. McLaren and Mercedes are the two teams ahead, but McLaren cannot execute their races properly and I am not convinced Mercedes are truly quicker, but there isn’t much in it.

The good news for Verstappen is that there is no one driver/team combination that is taking the fight to Verstappen. The Dutchman has extended his championship lead, despite winning just two of the last five races.

Sergio Perez is in terrible form, dropping to sixth place in the Drivers’ Championship. He has scored just fourteen points from the last six races. Nico Hulkenberg has scored more in the last two races for Haas.

Verstappen has won the last two races in Hungary, but he is lacking a competitive advantage this time round. Perez has a poor record here and more misery awaits.

Red Bull are due to introduce an upgrade for this race. They were uncompetitive at Monaco, another slow, twisty track, so it is not a given that even an upgraded Red Bull will be the fastest car this weekend. Street circuits are not good for their car, and while this is a purposed built F1 track, its layout and speed is not unlike a street circuit.

McLaren

It is getting hard to believe McLaren can win more races in 2024. They have what may be the fastest car, but their race execution has been very poor. They threw away a 1-2 finish at Silverstone, should have won in Canada, Norris screwed up in Austria and Spain was another one that got away.

Silverstone was a new low. They were running 1-2 when the rain tyres were required, but rather than double stacking their two cars, they made Piastri do another lap, on a long circuit, and he lost six or seven places, nearly 20 seconds and his great chance for a race win was lost.

When they went back to dry tyres, they put Norris out, with his blessing, on used soft tyres. They had a new set of the faster mediums in the garage, but decided to copy what Hamilton was doing. It was pathetic.

Track Should Suit

Around this track, the McLaren should once again be competitive. They have the car sorted for slow corners (they were 2-4 in Monaco) and while they may not be as strong as at Silverstone, another podium is the minimum target.

Norris was second here last year and Piastri fifth. I will still consider Piastri this weekend, but Norris is beginning to look deflated by the constant underachievement by driver and team. He can see his chance of a tilt at the title slipping away.

Piastri could join the list of first time winners at the Hungaroring, but he might have to do the thinking for himself, be selfish and decide his own strategy. His ideal lap at Monaco was faster than Leclerc’s and the Aussie started and finished second, which is a good form guide for this weekend.

McLaren’s off track woes continued here during the week. Their recently repaired hospitality unit, which was damaged by fire in Austria, had its roof blown off in a storm. Hopefully not an omen of another Austrian like on-track cock up.

Mercedes 

A front row lockout at Silverstone underlines that the car now has good pace, but Russell was forced to retire with a mechanical problem, and Hamilton should have lost out to the McLarens. That said, back to back race wins means they are now competing for the top step again.

One big question mark over the Mercedes is how the cars will cope in the heat. They have struggled in hot conditions in the past and they may not be quite so competitive this weekend.

Hamilton has won eight Hungarian races, the last in 2020. George Russell got an unexpected pole here in 2022, and Hamilton in 2023, so they should be in the hunt for pole position again. Hamilton set the record for the most wins at one track with his ninth at Silverstone two weeks ago, and he could match that here, if the heat doesn’t do for his chances.

The team have had good performances here even in the wilderness years, so I expect them to be a feature on the podium again, at least.

Ferrari 

Since winning in Monaco, things have gone downhill fast for Ferrari. They are now just seven points ahead of McLaren, and they should really be behind. With Mercedes now also having a faster car, the early season promise for Ferrari has gone.

Mercedes have scored 116 points since Monaco, McLaren 97 and Ferrari just 43. They are not coming back from that, but if they are to compete for another race win, it will be here, Singapore, or maybe Baku. Great traction out of slow corners means the track will play to Ferrari’s strengths.

Neither driver has a great record here, just one podium for Sainz in 2021, in the last five years. Two podiums in the last five years is not a strong record for Ferrari, but the nature of this year’s car may mean they can be more competitive than at recent races this season.

Porpoising Problems

Ferrari introduced an upgrade at Barcelona, which was designed to make the car run lower and produce more downforce. However, its main effect was to reintroduce the old porpoising problems that have largely been overcome by everyone.

The bouncing is at high speeds. So this track will help them in that respect. It has been working well at slower speeds. It has improved downforce, but the side effects on high speed sectors, negates any gains in downforce.

Ferrari took the Barcelona upgrade off the car in the end at Silverstone, but they may well reintroduce it here and the downside will be a lot less. However, while the Hungaroring has been called ‘Monaco without the walls’, it is faster and has a wider range of corners than at Monaco. The car should be ‘better’, or maybe that should be ‘less worse’.

Their plan is to use a modification of the floor introduced as part of that Barcelona upgrade package. If it works as planned, there is reason to believe that Ferrari could be a lot more competitive this weekend.

Aston Martin 

Arrested their slump with a double points finish at Silverstone, but they were a little flattered by Russell retiring and poor races for Leclerc and Perez. Finishing behind the Haas of Hulkenberg was more sobering for them.

Aston Martin have had an upgrade planned for this race, but their past form with mid-season upgrades means we should hold our breath. Alonso is a regular in the points here, the scene of his first F1 race victory. Haas will again be a threat to them this weekend.

Visa RB 

A tenth place for Tsunoda at Silverstone kept things ticking over, but again, he was helped by others struggling, rather than them being quick. They are now locked in a close fight with Haas, and Haas are closing fast.

Haas 

Only four points behind Visa RB now, following Hulkenberg’s back to back sixth places. If it wasn’t for Magnussen’s poor qualifying, they would be ahead.

I am not so sure that this track will suit them as much as Silverstone and Austria. They had a double DNF in Monaco thanks to the first lap crash, but they had already been disqualified from qualifying for a DRS wing infringement.

Hulkenberg had qualified twelfth, which is a better indicator of the pace there. That is middling pace for the Hulk. Magnussen is on the way out, being replaced at the end of the season, deservedly so. How that affects his performances for the rest of the season remains to be seen.

The car shares the basic mechanics of the Ferrari, and the same power unit. They have different aerodynamics, and right now, on fast tracks, the Haas is giving Ferrari a run for their money, which is very embarrassing for Ferrari.

Alpine 

Their mini revival came to an end at Silverstone. Gasly didn’t start the race after a gearbox issue, and that was after they gave him a full suite of new power unit and gearbox parts. Ocon finished a distant sixteenth, lapped twice.

They qualified well in Monaco, 10th and 11th, and Gasly managed a tenth place finish. Hardly concrete proof of them being competitive here. They Had a double DNF here last year after a first lap collision, which was not of their making.

Williams 

Doubled their points tally to four with Albon’s ninth place at Silverstone. His other two points came at Monaco, and those two tracks are at either end of the spectrum. That doesn’t make a lot of sense. Albon finished 11th here last year and I am not sure what to make of his chances here this weekend.

The team say they have updates coming, but not for this race, and they are not expecting the car to be well suited to the demands of the Hungaroring.

Kick Sauber 

Remain pointless. Their two drivers were 19th and 20th in qualifying at Monaco, which bodes badly for their chances here, as if they ever had any.

2024 Hungarian GP: Ante Post Selections

It is getting painful backing McLaren, only to see them shoot themselves in the foot, knee and head race in and race out, but surely they will get it right one day? They have a great all-rounder, a car that is in the mix, regardless of the track. They have addressed their slow corner weakness, and if they just think with more clarity, back themselves, then they have to win.

Verstappen is the 1.91 favourite, which may be good value if the Red Bull upgrade works. It needs to work as they no longer have the best car, but they do have the best driver. Norris is the 5.00 second favourite, and he is getting a bit short given his, and the team’s, ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Lewis Hamilton is the joint third favourite at 9.00, along with teammate George Russell. Given their qualifying pace, they are in the frame. However, will they be negatively affected by the hot conditions?

Piastri The Value

Oscar Piastri is next up at 17.00 (and as low as 9.00) and he is my idea of value. He has the car to win and he was impressive on that other, slow, high downforce track, in Monaco. He is knocking on the door, having had two second places from the last five races. There should have been another at Silverstone of course, and arguably the race win.

I have happy memories of backing Alonso to win his first here (41.00) and even better ones of the 151.00 Hamilton – Raikkonen dual forecast of 2007. It has been a happy hunting ground for me and a good one for first time winners.

2024 Hungarian GP Tip: 1 point e/w Oscar Piastri to win @ 17.00 with Skybet, Hills, BET365

Podium betting looks very tricky this weekend. We have Verstappen, the McLarens, the Mercedes and maybe the two Ferrari drivers in with a shout. I will give that a miss for now.

Ditto top 6 betting, but Nico Hulkenberg at 7.00 to make it three in a row makes some appeal. However, with Ferrari looking set to be more competitive, he is likely to get squeezed out.

In the points finish market, there are a few interesting prices. Nico Hulkenberg is odds against in a place. It is hard to be very confident as we never got to see how Haas would have gone at Monaco. They were both wiped out on the first lap. Hulkenberg’s recent back to back top 6 finishes both came on much faster tracks than we have this weekend, so there have to be doubts.

Alpine’s Record Solid

Alpine got a fortuitous win here in 2021along with a fourth place. They had double points finishes in 2020 and 2022, but suffered a double retirement last year, taken out in a first lap collision. They had been on a decent run of minor points before falling in a hole at Silverstone.

Gasly did not even start the race. He had a run of four consecutive finishes of ninth or tenth before that, and he is back on a track that the team goes well on. He can get back to competing for minor points. The Frenchman qualified and finished tenth in Monaco and the car has lost a bit more weight since then.

Gasly had a full suite of power unit upgrades at Silverstone, so hopefully, with no miles on the clock, he will get a bit of extra juice out of it this weekend. He is a good enough price to have dabble.

2024 Hungarian GP Tip: 1 point Pierre Gasly to finish in the points @ 3.50 with BET365

It has been much more profitable to have the majority of selections on raceday this season and I am happy to leave at the two bets for now. There will be updates on Saturday for qualifying and another on Sunday for the race.

-JamesPunt