2024 Hungarian GP Qualifying Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Hungarian GP Qualifying preview. He has already posted his outright preview and tips, see that here.

2024 Hungarian GP Qualifying Update

The three practice sessions have finished and we have a better idea of who is quick and who is not. The weather today was cloudy and the track much cooler as a result. That can help some cars, like Mercedes, but the best all-rounder car, McLaren is the quickest car.

Norris was fastest in FP2 and he backed that up by being fastest in FP3, just 0.044 ahead of his McLaren teammate, Oscar Piastri. Max Verstappen ended up third fastest, 0.281 off the pace of Norris. The McLaren just looked to have a much better level of grip and balance.

Verstappen had a bit of a less stable rear end and he didn’t really hook his lap up. He has a bit more in hand, but over two tenths on a very short lap is quite a gap. Perez, who had looked better yesterday, was back to being slow again today, over half a second slower than his teammate.

No Progress Ferrari

Ferrari have not made any great progress pace wise and Leclerc is not having a good weekend, crashing in FP2 and being slow today. Sainz has been the faster Ferrari in all three sessions.

Mercedes are not quite there. George Russell was the faster of their two drivers today, and in both sessions yesterday. Hamilton only just made the top 10 today and spun out at one point.

There are a few surprises from the midfield. The two Visa RBs were in the top ten and they have been quick all weekend. A double top 10 is on the cards. Ricciardo was up in sixth place. It will be hard to keep it that high if Leclerc and Hamilton can put in a better effort, but certainly Q3 is looking likely for both.

Albon Going Well

Alex Albon was ninth in FP2 and confirmed that pace with a seventh place today. We are accustomed to Nico Hulkenberg getting into the top 10 and despite sitting FP1 out, he was back on the pace today, setting the eighth fastest time. Magnussen, on the other hand, has been struggling with his brakes and looks likely to be stuck in Q1 again.

The Aston Martin upgrades are extensive and as disappointing as usual. Kick Sauber have also got a heavily revised car this weekend and they are showing better pace, but probably just shy of Q3 material. Alpine look very slow, certainly over a flying lap. Their long run paces was a little better, but getting out of Q1 looks to be unlikely.

2024 Hungarian GP Qualifying Summary

This is McLaren’s pole position to lose, and as we have seen this season, they are perfectly capable of doing just that. Norris has managed one pole position and one other front row in 2024. Piastri has two front rows. That is not a great return on what is just about the fastest car.

Its real strength is in its race pace, which bodes very well for Sunday. Max Verstappen will be in the mix today and he is good enough to make a difference. He isn’t the favourite in my book, but he can never be ruled out. The rest just look too slow to be competing for pole.

Piastri was just 0.044 off Norris’ pace today, so he is very much in with a chance, but he is 3-9 vs. Norris in 2024, and Norris would seem to be their best chance after outpacing Piastri in all three sessions this weekend.

Norris is the 2.20 favourite for pole position, Piastri 7.00, Verstappen 3.25. The odds for Norris look about right, but Piastri looks too big at 7.00, and Verstappen at 3.25 is a touch generous.

Mercedes Off The Pace

Verstappen has been the fastest qualifier eight times in 2024, but only once in the last five. From those last five, Russell has had two, Norris one and Leclerc one. Mercedes look a little too far off the pace today, they have not been faster than fourth all weekend.

Ferrari are even more off the pace this weekend and I am glad to have held fire on them ante post. They looked to have more potential than they have shown.

Norris has dropped the qualifying ball a few times this year and while it is likely to be a good value loser, the value lies with Piastri. He was less than a tenth off Norris today, yet he is three times less likely to get pole? I’m not having it.

We have each way betting back! Betfair and Betvictor are going 1/5 the odds 1-3 and Have Piastri at 6.00 and 7.00 respectively, Hills also go 1/5 the odds 1-3 but only 5.50. Ladbrokes go 1/3 the odds but only for the top 2 and Piastri is 7.00.

The Betvictor e/w odds look like a free hit on Piastri. Him not being in the top 3 would be a surprise, and a small profit can be returned with a top 3, with the chance of landing the win part realistic.

2024 Hungarian GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point e/w Oscar Piastri to be the fastest qualifier @ 7.00 with Betvictor

The winning margin in qualifying tends to be small on short tracks and the average here over the last five years is 0.09. It has been under 0.1 seconds in three of the last five years. The best odds are 2.30 for under 0.1 seconds and given the gap between Norris and Piastri was 0.044 this morning, we could have another sub 0.1 gap. It is just about worth it. Verstappen could keep it close as well.

2024 Hungarian GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point qualifying winning margin to be under 0.10 seconds @ 2.30 with Ladbrokes

Carlos Sainz has been Ferrari’s best driver this weekend and he has outqualified Leclerc in the last two race weekends. Leclerc has really struggled, more than Sainz, with the Ferrari upgrade. He looks good value to outqualify him for the third race in a row.

2024 Hungarian GP Qualifying Tip: 2 points Carlos Sainz to out qualify Charles Leclerc @ 1.73 with Ladbrokes (1.67 Unibet, Livescorebet)

The same goes for Russell at Mercedes. He is 8-4 with Hamilton in 2024 and has been faster in all three sessions, but his best odds to beat Hamilton are just 1.35, so I will pass on that one.

-JamesPunt