2024 Hungarian GP Raceday Update & Tips – JP
2024 Hungarian GP Raceday Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Hungarian GP Raceday preview. He has already fired in a couple of qualifying winners, fingers crossed for more of the same today.
2024 Hungarian GP Raceday Update
It was a good qualifying session for us yesterday. Piastri missed out on pole by 0.022 seconds, but the place part of the bet returned a small profit. Sainz beat Leclerc to land the two pointer and the winning margin was under 0.10.
We have had two ante post bets, Piastri to win each way at 17.00 and Gasly to finish in the points. Piastri is now the 7.50 third favourite, Gasly is in the bin after Alpine, who were already not at the races, completely messed up qualifying. He starts from 20th place, even worse than Zhou and Sargeant.
Weather Watch
The first thing to do is to look at the weather. We had some rain for qualifying yesterday, which did its best to ruin things for us, but it was light in nature and falling on a hot track meant that wet weather tyres were not required.
Today’s forecast is for partly sunny conditions and very warm. However, clouds will build as we move towards start time and there is a 50%- 55% chance of rain between 3 and 4pm. That is bang on race start time.
It will again be light in nature and I would doubt if that meant wet weather tyres would be needed, but you can never be sure. It could just grease the track up for a few laps and throw a bit of a typical Hungarian GP curve ball into the mix.
Lower Track Temperature
Th build-up of cloud will have the effect of bringing down the track temperature. That will be good news for everyone as it will reduce thermal degradation and gives better racing conditions.
McLaren have a front row lock out for the first time in years. It underlines the argument that they now have the fastest car. It is now up to the team and drivers to execute a clean race and bring home maximum points.
With Mercees having a bit of a mare yesterday, and Ferrari again looking off the pace, McLaren have a great chance to move into second place in the Constructors’ Championship and further close the gap to Red Bull.
2024 Hungarian GP Raceday: Team-by-Team
Red Bull
Verstappen was frustrated with his third place yesterday. He was hoping for more, but the McLaren was just that bit faster. There was not much in it and the two cars’ long run pace was very similar, so Verstappen is still very much in the frame.
The same cannot be said for Perez, who stuffed his Red Bull into the barriers and out of Q2. He starts from sixteenth and that ties one arm behind Red Bulls back. Perez had been quickest on the long runs on Friday, but only by 0.1 from Norris, who was more consistent.
McLaren
The only thing that has gone wrong for McLaren this weekend was the roof of their motor home blowing off. It doesn’t get any better than starting 1-2 on a track on which overtaking is difficult. Having both cars up there gives them more strategic flexibility.
Their race pace was right there with Red Bull, but being at the front means clean air, and cooler air. That makes looking after the tyres easier and helps to keep everything cooler.
We have seen from previous races, that McLaren’s real race strength is being able to get more out of their tyres late in the stints. When others are losing performance, McLaren can keep on pushing and that could be the deciding factor today.
Ferrari
Their revised floor has made the car more driveable, although the nature of this track might have more to do with that, but it is still not any faster. Sainz still has the beating of Leclerc who has really struggled since the Barcelona upgrade.
Their long run pace was half a second off the top two teams and a couple of tenths off Mercedes. Hamilton should be able to get the better of the two Ferraris and their pace puts Ferrari fifth and sixth.
Mercedes
Helped by the drop in track temperature for qualifying, but the car has looked a bit of a handful. Their long run pace put them well off the McLaren and Red Bull, but they were at least third best. Hamilton will look to get ahead of the Ferrari of Sainz and he may well match his result here last year and finish fourth.
George Russell just got it wrong in qualifying. He went out early in Q1, to avoid the rain, but as it turned out, the track dried very quickly, got faster and he wasn’t fuelled for another run. He is out of position in seventeenth place and has his work cut out to make up ground on this track. Russell is aiming for a points finish and the car’s race pace suggests he can do it.
Aston Martin
Suddenly came to life in qualifying having been very anonymous in free practice. They are flattered by the woes of Perez and Russell. They have the two Visa RBs behind them on the grid and the Aston’s long run pace was slower on Friday.
However, they worked on the set up on Friday night and that has improved the car’s pace. The drop in temperature also helped them, so they will be happy to see the clouds building for today’s race. Alonso has finished in the top eight in his last eight races here. This track was the scene of his first ever win and he does go well here. A solid points finish looks on the cards.
Visa RB
A good weekend, up to the point where Tsunoda crashed in Q3. That will have kept the mechanics busy, putting it back together. They start ninth and tenth and should get at least one car home in the points. Ricciardo believes there is more pace in the car and is confident that he can make the points finish and maybe attack the Aston Martins ahead.
Haas
The same old story. Hulkenberg just missed out on Q3 but starts eleventh and with decent race pace. He may need some attrition if he is to make the points. Magnussen made it out of Q1, but only starts from fifteenth.
Hulkenberg had no new tyres in Q2 and that cost him a place in the top 10. Magnussen had a difficult out lap in Q2 and burnt out his tyres just making it to the start line before the session expired. He believes the car has the pace to move up the order.
Kick Sauber
The upgraded car was an improvement and Bottas starts from twelfth, as he did in Spain before finishing nineteenth. Their long run pace on Friday was the slowest of all, so they may have overperformed in qualifying. Zhou is back in eighteenth.
Williams
Albon was unhappy with his thirteenth place in qualifying and believes that he could have made Q3 but for hitting traffic in Q2. Sargeant made it out of Q1 which suggests that the car is performing better than was expected.
Alpine
Having made the points in four of the five races from Miami to Austria, they seem to have dropped off the pace again. Pointless at Silverstone and yesterday’s qualifying saw them very slow, and then the team dropped the ball by keeping the cars in the pits, just as the conditions ramped the pace up, leaving them filling the back row. The team have enjoyed a lot of success here, but Karma bit them on the arse yesterday.
2024 Hungarian GP Raceday Summary
We have the McLaren vs. Verstappen battle, much as expected. This is McLaren’s to lose, but with both cars on the front row, surely they can get their second win of the season. Norris starts as the 1.70 favourite, Verstappen 3.25 and Piastri 7.50. We are on Piastri e/w and that is enough for us in that market.
The pole position driver’s record here is not good. Since 2014, the pole sitter has won just three of the ten races. Two have been won from second, two from third, one from fourth, one from eighth and one from tenth.
Strange things have happened here, and who knows, if we get a mid-race shower, that could be the trigger for another mixed up race. Fingers crossed that Piastri can at least bring it home in second place, and maybe get the win.
Long Run At Start
The start here features a long run down into the first corner and a heavy braking event. That can tempt drivers to be a bit too ambitious and a bit too late on the brakes.
It also allows drivers to get a bit of a tow from the car in front and no doubt Verstappen will be tucking in behind one of the McLarens and try to jump the leaders. Norris has not been the best off the line at times and it will be a nervous start for him.
The McLaren is running with more downforce and is slow on the straight, that could count against them at the start.
RaceDay Bets
Alex Albon believes that he should have got more out of qualifying yesterday. He starts thirteenth, which is exactly his seasonal average in qualifying. He was ninth in FP2 and seventh in FP3, so he does have a point.
The team were worried about the high temperatures, so they will be happy to see the clouds. Albon can be backed at 1.73 to beat Bottas and that looks like a solid bet. Bottas said he maxed out in qualifying, and the Sauber has tended to be better over one lap than over race distances.
There is an alternative bet with Albon. Ladbrokes have him in a group with the two Alpines, Magnussen, Sargeant and Bottas. He is a 2.50 shot to win that. From that group, his two realistic threats are Magnussen and maybe Bottas.
Better odds to beat what looks like two drivers, or lesser odds to beat just one? I will keep it simple and go for the straight match bet with a bigger stake and hope that he gets away cleanly.
2024 Hungarian GP Raceday Tip: 2 points Albon to beat Bottas @ 1.73 with Ladbrokes
The two Visa RBs have been in good form this weekend. The car seems well suited to the track and they look worth following. Ricciardo is 1.83 to finish in the points for the third time in five races. He is 9.00 to finish in the top six.
The team’s best finish of the season is seventh, twice, both times with Tsunoda. Ricciardo has finished ahead of Tsunoda for three of the last four races and he has been finding some better form as he fights for his F1 career. A top 6 would need a slice or two of good fortune so I will take the more conservative option.
2024 Hungarian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Ricciardo to finish in the points @ 1.83 with Ladbrokes
I will probably put the curse on them with the next bet, but I have been impressed by the pace of the Visa RBs. Both have shown top 10 pace all weekend and they underachieved in qualifying, but still got both into the top 10. They have yet to get both cars home in the points this season (outside of the Miami sprint race) but the opportunity is there and realistic.
2024 Hungarian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point double points finish for Visa RB @ 3.50 with BET365, Ladbrokes
It will be interesting to see if Hamilton can get the better of Carlos Sainz. Their long run pace on Friday was better and Hamilton has a phenomenal record here.
Sainz has only finished ahead of Hamilton once in his career in Hungary and while Hamilton has not been entirely happy with the car this weekend, Mercedes’ long run pace was better than Ferrari’s. However, Hamilton doesn’t sound too happy with how his car is handling and while the 1.83 for him to beat Sainz is tempting, I will pass.
Russell Can Make Places
In the other Mercedes, we have George Russell starting from seventeenth place on the grid. He had been top five in all three practice sessions, but the qualifying was a disaster for him.
The positive is that Russell has form for pulling off results from near the back here. In 2021 he finished 8th having started 17th, helped by the first lap pile up removing a large chunk of the field. Last year he started from 18th and finished sixth, and that is the target today.
It is hard to overtake here, but it can and has been done. It just needs a car that is fast enough and the Mercedes just about ticks that box.
