2024 Irish Champions Weekend Leopardstown – DS
2024 Irish Champions Weekend Leopardstown Preview
Our 12/1 e/w NAP Grey’s Monument got us back in the winner’s enclosure last week. Joe Leavy can now definitely be considered a friend of the blog. Places for Poniros, backed from 16s into 9/2 and Hieronymus, who drifted to 80s from 25s, ensured we turned a nice profit on the day. Hopefully we can land another or winner or two on Saturday, Dave Stevos’ 2024 Irish Champions Weekend Leopardstown tips are below.
1.10 – Ingabelle Stakes (Listed)
First up at Leopardstown is this 7f listed heat for 2yo fillies. Impressive Galway winner Bubbling is currently edging favouritism from Chantez, who beat Indigo Dream by 3l in a C&D maiden on her second start. She had Bubbling 4l behind when beaten a head here in another maiden back in July and if I were backing either of the market leaders, I’d have to side with Ger Lyons’ filly.
However, we are not in the business of backing favourites and instead, I think it might be worth taking a punt on Twolatebabydoll e/w at big odds. Trained in County Wexford by Cormac Farrell, this filly should really be coming into this race a winner. She has endured troubled passages on both starts so far, when finishing fourth here on debut and then when beaten 0.5l at Naas.
Stuck On The Inside
Twolatebabydoll got stuck on the inner, was keen and only found daylight late on in that Leopardstown debut back in July (7.5f, gd/yld) but she finished off very strongly. She really should have won at Naas next time when getting mullered a furlong out when coming with what looked like a winning challenge. Garden of Eden was 0.5l ahead of her (re-opposes here) and she ran respectably in a G3 two weeks ago when a mile probably stretched her.
Bar the top two in the betting, this looks a pretty open race. If Twolatebabydoll had enjoyed a bit more luck in either of her two races she’d have a 1 next to her name and she’d probably be half the price she is. The fact she is from a yard not known for producing 2yos has further inflated her odds and they are big enough to warrant a small e/w interest. Hopefully she gets a clear run this time and gets into the places.
2024 Irish Champions Weekend Leopardstown Tip: Twolatebabydoll e/w @ 40/1
2.15 – Solonaway Stakes (Group 2)
The one that looks a tad overpriced in this G2 is Lord Massusus. Trained by Joe Murphy, this 4yo son of Markaz rarely runs a bad race. Okay, he did throw in a bit of a stinker at the Curragh back in May but in his defence, 10f in Group 1 company was a bridge too far for him.
Bar that tame effort, his recent runs over 8f and 7f have been much more like it. He hosed up in Listed company at the Curragh in June (8f, gd) and then chased Poet Master home in a 7f G2 in July, again at the Curragh.
Last time out he finished 0.75l behind Mutasarref in a Leopardstown G3 and while he is now 3lb worse off with that rival, if this race is run at a faster clip and he settles better I believe he could possibly turn that form around.
Lord Massusus has form figures of 1433 over this C&D. The fourth came in this race last year when he finished 2.25l behind the winner Flight Plan, who is back to defend his crown. I’d imagine this race has been on Joe Murphy’s radar ever since and hopefully his charge can go at least one place better and reward e/w support at odds of 14/1.
2024 Irish Champions Weekend Leopardstown Tip: Lord Massusus e/w @ 14/1
2.25 Doncaster – Portland Heritage Handicap (Class 2)
On paper, this looks like it will be run at a rattling pace. In recent years, it has usually paid to be drawn mid to high and with the likely front runners Get It and Hiya Maite drawn in 18 and 19, it might be another year where a high draw proves to be an advantage.
Shagraan is drawn beside Get It in stall 17 and he represents last year’s winning yard. He has an obvious chance but that is reflected in his price of just 7/1. At nearly double those odds, it might be worth taking a chance on Vintage Clarets from stall 20.
Trained by Richard Fahey, this horse has not been beaten far the last twice in hot handicaps at Ascot and York. He was beaten just 0.5l at Chester back in May off 95 and he gets in off a mark of 90 this afternoon. Richard Fahey has booked Jamie Spencer for the ride and his quiet style could be just what the doctor ordered for the 5yo son of Ardad.
Course Form
Vintage Clarets has run well on three of his four previous visits to Doncaster. In this race last year he ran a massive race to finish 3.25l behind the winner Annaf in fifth off 92 and then a month later he finished a 3.25l third in another course handicap over 5f off 97.
This gelding’s last two wins have come off 94 and 91 so he is handicapped to be very competitive at the moment. He’s drawn close to the early pace so Spencer should have a target to aim at and he’s won on ground ranging from heavy to good to firm, so it won’t matter what the weather does. At odds of 12/1, Vintage Clarets is the e/w selection.
2024 Doncaster Saturday Tip: Vintage Clarets e/w @ 12/1 (5 places) nb
2.50 – Matron Stakes (Group 1)
The only one that appeals at a decent price in this race is Rogue Millenium. However, she has also annoyingly been declared for the G2 Blandford Stakes at the Curragh on Sunday so she isn’t even guaranteed to run in this race.
She has yet to win since joining Joseph O’Brien but she has run some fine races in defeat. She has finished third in Group 1s at Newmarket and Deauville on her last two starts and she finished 4l behind the fav for this, Porta Fortuna, in the former race.
The return to this venue might enable her to close that gap. She last ran here in this race last season and she found just Tahiyra too good, finishing 1.25l behind her in second. That was a career best by some way and before she was declared for Sunday, I was sure that this race has been the plan for her all year. That Blandford entry has thrown a spanner in the works so I am going to leave this race alone. No bet.
2024 Irish Champions Weekend Leopardstown Tip: No Bet
3.00 Doncaster – Park Stakes (Group 2)
This does not look the strongest of Group 2s. Kinross is the 9/4 fav and as I am involved with a broodmare that is a relative of his, I won’t be complaining if he wins. His form when finishing second to Montassib at Newcastle doesn’t look too bad now and he won this in 2022 so clearly, he has a big chance. However, he may just need a bit of softer ground these days and I’d imagine his main target is the Champions Sprint at Ascot next month.
The 3yos Lead Artist and Al Shabab Storm are interesting contenders and Poet Master was extremely impressive when hosing up over in Ireland when last sighted. However, I am going to take a chance on Pogo at a huge price.
Now an 8yo, Charlie Hills’ stable stalwart isn’t getting any younger but he’s shown more than once this season that he still retains plenty of ability. At Haydock in June he was only beaten 1.5l by Tiber Flow in a 7f Group 3 and he was a neck behind Shartash at the same track the previous month in a Listed heat.
On his only previous run over this C&D he was placed in a Listed heat and that was on ground that would have been easier than ideal. Charlie Hills has booked Silvestre De Sousa for the ride and he is 13/110 for the yard with a further 42 top 4 finishes. That’s a frame hitting strike rate of exactly 50%, hopefully he can enhance that record on Pogo at odds of 28/1.
2024 Doncaster Saturday Tip: Pogo e/w @ 28/1
3.25 – Irish Champion Stakes (Group 1)
I was all over Ghostwriter for this when I saw he was 12/1 earlier this week. However, those odds are long gone and he is now too short for us at just 8s. Economics is an exciting prospect upped in class but this is no gimme. If Auguste Rodin is on a going day, he is an obvious threat. Los Angeles is on a hat-trick and he’s no mug either.
The Japanese raider Shin Emperor adds yet more intrigue and he could go well, but his form is very hard to weigh up in the context of this race. With half the field trained by Aidan O’Brien and the value gone from Ghostwriter’s odds, I am going to give this race a wide berth. No bet.
2024 Irish Champions Weekend Leopardstown Tip: No Bet
3.40 Doncaster – St Leger Stakes (Group 1)
We have already backed Deira Mile ante-post for this race e/w at 20/1 for 3 places. He’s into 16s now and only seven run so we are in a decent position and I am more than happy to stick with him. You can read why I fancy him here.
2024 Doncaster Saturday Tip: Deira Mile already advised e/w @ 20/1 (3 places)
4.35 – Petingo Handicap (Premier)
This is a minefield of a handicap. A trip of 13f awaits a field of 23 and as ever, luck will play a huge part. One that could potentially be a shade overpriced at 33/1 is the Eoghan O’Neill trained mare, No Niki No.
This 8yo has been in fine form this summer. She ran a pair of crackers at this trip when second at Ballinrobe and Down Royal. Last time out she got her head back in front dropped back to 10.5f at Sligo, beating Beechwood by a neck off 83. That rival, then rated 94, hacked up in a Listed heat at Galway last weekend and is now rated 105.
No Niki No got just a 4lb hike for that win so she pitches up here off 87. That’s 4lb higher than she was when running a blinder in this last year when a 4.25l fourth behind Satin and she is a pound better off with that rival today. No Niki No has form figures of 134 at this track, the ground should be perfect and I’m hoping she gets her customary fast start from out in stall 19. If she can get away and tack across, hopefully she can make a bold bid for small stakes at odds of 33/1.
2024 Irish Champions Weekend Leopardstown Tip: No Niki No e/w @ 33/1 (6 places)
5.10 – Sovereign Path Handicap (Premier)
From a decent enough draw in stall 5, I am going to take a chance on Kortez Bay. Trained by Sheila Lavery, this 3yo son of New Bay has some decent snippets of form in the book. He was fourth in a pair of Curragh maidens on his first two starts and then ran a mighty race in the valuable Ballyhane Stakes on his third start.
Lavery’s charge has had just one run in handicap company and it was an excellent effort at Naas in May. He was only beaten a length off 85 and then he finally got his first win on the board two starts later in a 7f maiden at Fairyhouse. His last two runs have come in stakes company, when well beaten in a G3 at Royal Ascot and then when just 5L behind Super Sox in a Listed heat at Cork last month.
Kortez Bay is now rated 90. He had Dunum a short head behind him at Cork last time, getting 5lbs, and he gets 10lbs from him here. Dunum is around 6/1 for this, Kortez Bay is 25s. Gary Carroll takes over in the plate and at the prices, Kortez Bay is surely worth chancing e/w.
