2024 Italian GP Outright Betting Preview – JP
2024 Italian GP Outright Betting Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Italian GP outright betting preview. Last week didn’t go to plan but hopefully we get back on track at Monza.
2024 Italian GP Preview
Last weekend’s Dutch GP saw a loss of 4.34 points. It was a strange weekend and the variable conditions across the weekend saw various teams drifting in and out of their sweet spot and left a confusing picture for many. The exception being Lando Norris, who was imperious.
There was the now customary poor start, but he just got his head down and picked off Verstappen very easily. His upgraded McLaren ended up just under 23 seconds ahead of the Dutchman, the biggest winning margin of the season, and just a bit more than my ‘less than 5 second’ winning margin bet.
McLaren Closing In
With nine races to go, McLaren have closed in on Red Bull in the Constructors’ Championship. They are now just 30 points behind and are the 1.35 favourites to win it. Our ante-post selections include Norris to win the World Drivers’ Championship ‘without Max Verstappen’ @ 7.50. That is now 1.12 on the Exchange and he is 33 points ahead of third place Charles Leclerc.
We also dipped into the two Championships during the Spanish GP and backed Norris outright at 17.00 and McLaren at 7.00. Those are now 4.00 and 1.35 respectively. It is a good book of bets, but I would say Norris now looks a bit short at 4.00 to close down a current gap of 70 points to Verstappen.
The McLaren is now the best car and by some margin, but Norris needs to score, on average 7.78 points per race more than Verstappen. It is doable, but I think we would need a DNF or a nil points race for Verstappen at some point. Stranger things have happened of course, so fingers crossed.
The 2024 Italian GP Track
We cross over to Monza this weekend for the 2024 Italian GP, one of the jewels in the F1 crown. It is the ultimate test of speed, speed and more speed. The Ferrari fans will be out in force and it is always a great weekend.
The circuit features just eleven corners, and four of those are in the two chicanes. The emphasis is on straight line speed, but there are two long duration curves and a couple of high speed right handers. It is the ultimate low downforce track and the teams will have a lot of track specific parts on their cars for this weekend.
Very small, low drag rear wings are the order of the day. This has the side effect of making the DRS very weak. Overtaking is mainly done under braking into the chicanes. Late brakers can be rewarded here, but this track tends to reward the car with the best straight line performance.
Not One Dimensional
The track is not totally one dimensional. The two chicanes require the drivers to ride the kerbs to get the best line through. There are two long duration curves, the curva Grande and the curva Parabolica. There’s the two quick Lesmo right handers along with the shimmy through Variante Ascari.
There was one year when a team, I think it was McLaren with Jenson Button, ran with a bigger rear wing and a higher downforce set up, completely against the norm. His times were surprisingly good, so the teams can tweak their set ups to be faster in the curves and corners, but losing something on the straights.
The really aero efficient cars still have an advantage, even on a power circuit dominated by straights, as they will still have that bit more downforce in the corners.
Changes
The track has seen some changes since last year. The track owners are updating the circuit’s facilities as they try and keep their place on the F1 calendar. Part of that was to resurface the track and that can throw a bit of a curve ball into race strategy plans.
We saw that at Spa, where the partially resurfaced track led to much lower degradation than expected. That in turn helped George Russell to run a one stop race and cross the line first. The new tarmac is said to be smother, and darker in colour. That means it will reach hotter surface temperatures when the sun is shining.
A hotter track affects the tyres and suddenly, you can have tyre degradation being the big issue. If the sun goes behind a cloud, the track temp dops a few degrees and that can be enough to change a cars performance. Expect track evolution to be high this weekend.
Wider Kerbs
Some of the kerbs have been made wider…and flatter. Now that bit pricked up my ears. We know there is one car that was the class leader in terms of being able to aggressively hit kerbs hard, take the best line, but not lose any grip or traction doing so, and one that really didn’t like it. The former is Ferrari, the latter Red Bull. Have the track owners in effect, reduced one of Ferrari’s advantages? And at the same time, taken some heat of Red Bull?
The first chicane, often the scene of accidents, especially at the start, has been reprofiled, and about time. The entry and exit have been widened, the idea being to give these big, wide cars the room they need to get through two abreast.
We saw it every year, two cars racing down the long straight, one trying to overtake, the other defending, and it resulted in one, or both, overshooting the corner, followed by the ‘he pushed me off’ radio chat. That knocked things into the hands of the stewards to decide if there was a penalty due and so on.
Hopefully, there will now be enough room for the car making the overtake, to have the room to execute to the move without incident. The second chicane remains the same, so we still have plenty of jeopardy over the lap.
Turbo Hybrid Era
Mercedes powered cars dominated when the turbo hybrid era started in 2014. Mercedes won five straight races from 2014 to 2018, often joined at the front by the Mercedes powered Williams.
Ferrari got a rare win for the home fans in 2019, the year when they had the most powerful power unit. We had two freak results in 2020 and 2021. Pierre Gasly won for Alpha Tauri in 2020 and Daniel Ricciardo lead home a McLaren 1-2 in 2022, helped by Verstappen and Hamilton crashing out at the first chicane on lap 23.
Normal service was resumed in 2022 and 2023 with wins for Max Verstappen.
Outlier
The drivers are at full throttle for 80% of the lap and in that respect, it is a bit like another fast circuit, Silverstone, but Monza is a real outlier. The time taken for a pitstop here is long and that means a one stopper is the ideal strategy.
With a newly resurfaced, evolving, hot track surface, there has to be question marks as to how the tyres will hold up. If the teams strive for a one stopper, tyre deg at the end of the stints could be a big factor and would play to McLaren’s strengths in that department.
Since 2014, the pole sitter has only won four times, second place has won three, third once and also one from seventh and one from tenth. The average attrition rate is 2.90 per race, with a high of four (four times) and a low of one, which was last year’s race. We are in a season with very low attrition, just 1.69 per race and three of the last six have seen no retirements, and just four in total.
The 2024 Italian GP Weather
Last weekend’s wet and windy weather really made things difficult and there was a lot of variation in performance due to changes in conditions.
The forecast for this weekend is much more settled. Hot and largely sunny is the order of the day. All three days will see temperatures above 30 degrees, nearer 35 on Friday and Saturday. Thunderstorms are a possibility given the heat but it is more likely that we have a dry weekend.
Sunday’s forecast is a little more uncertain. There is a weather front moving in. The temperature will be a little lower on Sunday but the view is that any rain should be after the race, but that be clearer nearer the day.
2024 Italian GP: Team-by-Team Outlook
Red Bull
Still top of the table, but no longer the best car. The latest McLaren upgrade has dispelled any notion that Red Bull have the quickest car. In Max Verstappen, they have the fastest driver, but he can only do so much.
Perez has not finished higher than sixth in the last nine Grand Prix and Verstappen has not been able to get a win in the last five. Verstappen is going for a Monza hat trick, but he will need McLaren to have problems if he is to get it.
The Red Bull is quick in a straight line, so this track should be reasonably good for them. However, the car does not handle the kerb riding as well as some, and that is a negative, but with the track changes, not such a big one.
Newey Factor
Recent upgrades have not improved the car’s performance and there is an inevitable school of thought that it is the ‘Newey Factor’ which is the problem. Adrian Newey is leaving the team next year, but he will have already been frozen out of the development process.
Newey does not design the cars in isolation. It is believed Newey’s real area of design has been around suspension in recent models. His expertise in ground effect cars gave Red Bull a head start in coming to terms with the porpoising problems which came with ground effects.
His anti dive suspension was ahead of the game. Their problem now seems to be more aero related, and especially the new floor, which is the biggest downforce generator.
Different Setups
At Zandvoort, Red Bull ran their cars with different set ups, and different floors. Verstappen ran an old spec floor, with a bigger rear wing. That gave more downforce and was supposed to protect the rear tyres. Perez ran with a small wing and the new spec floor. Neither were particularly successful.
The team say that the new floor was 0.2s quicker, but some analysts have questioned how that conclusion was reached. Yes, Verstappen was second, but how much of that was driver, and how much was car? Perez was OK at best but dropped a place on his starting position. At least the engineers now have comparative data to draw on.
A Bit Lost
Clearly, Red Bull are a bit lost. They are throwing bits on the car, and then finding that they are not doing what is expected. They are not alone in this, of course, but McLaren are not having the same problems and are winning the development war.
Newey has been the great overseer, the one who gets the bigger picture. He steered the direction of development and was the man the team looked to to solve problems. To have the great designer and thinker parked on the sidelines can only be a negative, and it looks like that is playing out now.
McLaren
Undoubtedly the fastest car. Lando Norris’ win last weekend saw him in a different league to the rest. Clearly, the advantage of running in clean air is now huge, but it was so easy for Norris just to drive past Verstappen.
The McLaren has the ability to hang on to tyre performance late into a stint and can unleash great speed just as the others are losing time. The car does have a problem off the line, but their race pace can make up for that.
Another weakness is that Piastri is not quite cutting it. Yes, he has scored 179 points, but his qualifying performances are a bit short of where they should be. That he was unable to score a podium last week in a car with such a big pace advantage, was disappointing.
Dirty Air
Driving in the dirty air was making it harder for him, but he admitted that he should have done better. In the best car, you need to able to maximise your finishing position, and he is just a bit shy of that.
The fact that McLaren elected to run a very long first stint for Piastri probably didn’t help his cause either. It is, perhaps, being a bit harsh on a driver who is only in his second season, but he is in the best car and he has to make the most of it.
McLaren will play down their chances this weekend. They may not be the fastest in a straight line and there are not enough corners for them to really shine. Their ideal track has a lot of long, high downforce corners. Monza is low downforce but has a couple of long duration corners.
Best All-Round Car
However, they have the best all-rounder and are going to be in the mix everywhere. The fact that the McLaren is so good with tyre degradation is paying dividends. We see it in every race, as most drivers are starting to lose time due to the tyres going off, McLaren can put their foot down and get more performance. The fact that Norris set the fastest lap at Zandvoort, on his last lap with hard tyres that were over 40 laps old, rammed that point home.
We can become very focused on the straight line speed factor at Monza, and perhaps ignore those long curves. They are high speed curves and that puts a lot of lateral loading on the tyres. If the McLaren duo can still keep their foot planted on the throttle through those curves, while others are starting to lose grip, they will be faster, able to attack, or defend, with greater effectiveness.
Ferrari
One of the teams who were very hard to get a handle on last weekend. They really struggled in free practice and qualifying, sixth place looked to be the limit to their performance, but in the race, they were strong. Leclerc was able to hold off Piastri to finish third and Sainz rose from tenth on the grid to finish fifth. They even played a good strategic game!
This will be the team’s biggest race of the season, expectations will be high and while they have only had one win here in the turbo hybrid era, there have been regular podiums to keep the Tifosi reasonably happy.
The car will have some upgrades (above and beyond track specific ones) for their home race as they hunt for another podium finish. We know they are coming, but do not know if they will work, and if they do, by how much the car will improve by.
Back To Back Podiums
Leclerc has scored back to back third places at two quite different circuits and I suspect Ferrari will be quite good here. They have a car that rides the kerbs well, that changes direction well, and has good traction, so they will love the chicanes. Will that be enough? Probably not. I expect Baku and Singapore to be happier hunting grounds, but they could be on the podium again.
Alonso has tipped Ferrari up as the favourites to win the 2024 Italian GP, which is interesting, but perhaps unlikely. Unless they have some serious upgrades for their home race. If their upgrade successfully deals with the problem, then Ferrari could be in the frame.
New Floor
The new floor they introduced recently gave them better downforce, but also a lot of porpoising. They have been running the car a little higher than what is ideal to reduce the problem, but that hurts performance.
Porpoising in a straight line is not so bad, very uncomfortable for the driver, but in corners, it is a killer. If they get that sorted, maybe Alonso could be right. Qualifying performance remains a weakness and I wouldn’t bother with them until Sunday.
This year’s car was designed to overcome the tyre munching characteristics of last year’s car. They have given up some one lap performance to help with tyre degradation over a race distance, which was the correct thing to do.
Mercedes
Back to being an unpredictable beast. The car looked very strong on Friday, not so good in qualifying, for Hamilton at least, and they could only manage 7th and 8th in the race. From winning three from four, the Merc looked fairly ordinary again.
The forecast very hot temperatures may not make happy reading for Mercedes, but it seems that we can only really get a grip on their pace in qualifying. Their Friday pace is often misleading.
Russell Needs More
We have a 2 point bet for Russell to finish ahead of Hamilton at the end of the season. Russell’s DQ in Spa and DNF at Silverstone has left him 32 points behind, so we need to see a bit more from Russell. He has finished ahead of Hamilton here for the last three years.
Even though Mercedes have improved their car massively this year, it remains unpredictable. It is very sensitive to changes in conditions. At least conditions look set to be fairly consistent across the three days, but will it be too hot?
The Mercedes’ can have a tendency to overheat their tyres a little, handy for qualifying, but can be a problem in very hot conditions. That small sweet spot on the car remains a weakness.
Aston Martin
Had looked pretty decent in practice and qualifying at Zandvoort, but they just went backwards in the race. They are usually in the mix for a point or two, but much like last year, they have not developed the car well and are sitting well behind the top four, but well above the bottom five.
Lance Stroll has gone well here before, he has scored a podium and three other top ten finishes, but that was when Mercedes’ power was the thing to have here. Alonso has just two top eight finishes in the turbo hybrid era.
Visa RB
Had a poor weekend in the Netherlands last weekend, but they have got a car home in the points in eight of the last ten races. Tsunoda has a wretched record here. He has failed to make the start twice and his only race yielded a fourteenth place.
Ricciardo has gone well here before, scoring a win in 2021 and he has had six other points finishes since 2014. He was one of the great late brakers, and this track rewarded that skill. I am not sure if he still has the confidence to pull off those moves these days.
Haas
Nearly used some good team work to get Hulkenberg home in the points last weekend, but his tyres eventually dropped him back to eleventh after a mega long run on the hards. The Haas has gone well on tracks with long straights and they possess above average straight line performance.
Hulkenberg has no less than six eleventh place finishes this season, and maybe this track will be enough to get him back in the points. Magnussen just can’t qualify well enough to compete.
Alpine
Gasly had a great weekend at Zandvoort, qualifying tenth and finishing ninth. He deserves the credit as he raced well, made some positive overtakes and didn’t make any mistakes. This was the scene of his sole F1 race win.
Ocon has gone well here, scoring a couple of top six finishes and four points finishes in total. You never know with Alpine.
Williams
It was a bittersweet weekend for Williams in the Netherlands. Sargeant smashed up his newly upgraded car in FP3. That ultimately ended his F1 career as the team sacked him on Monday and on Tuesday announced the promotion of one of their academy drivers, Franco Colapinto, as his replacement.
Things at Zandvoort were compounded by Albon being disqualified from qualifying with an oversized floor. The bright side was that Albon qualified eighth and the upgrade may have lifted them above Aston Martin, at least in Albon’s hands. He has two top seven finishes here and the Williams has shown good straight line speed, but not as much as last year.
It will be a big ask for Franco Colapinto to step up from F2 to F1, but we have seen the likes of Liam Lawson and Oliver Bearman make the same step and score points. It was only two years ago that Williams had to replace Albon with Nyck DeVries for this very race at very late notice, and he was able to finish ninth.
Sauber
Reached rock bottom at Zandvoort. Slowest in qualifying and finished last and second last. Both drivers have a top 10 finish here in the last two years and an optimist can point out that they can’t be any worse than last weekend.
Summary
The question is, can anyone stop McLaren from taking their fourth win of the season in the 2024 Italian GP, and their third in four races?
Mercedes have won three of the last five races, but they were back to scratching their heads in the Netherlands last week. The very hot temperatures may be enough to push them out of their sweet spot, and it is hard to feel that they are going to be very strong this weekend. They will probably look good on Friday, but better than McLaren over a race distance? Not for me.
Straight Line Pace
Red Bull have had a week to try and address why they are not getting enough from their last upgrade. They say that they know the new floor is faster, but they are clearly worried about tyre wear. They do have good straight line pace and should be more competitive here.
The fact that some of the kerbs have been lowered moves things in their direction, but they are a team that is just not firing on all cylinders right now. There is no real need for Verstappen to panic, so long as he can at least finish on the podium.
He was the fastest qualifier in Belgium, but had to take a 10 place grid penalty, and it is easy to get a bit carried away by how far behind they were last Sunday. Back on a high speed track that will reward their straight line speed, they are likely to be more competitive.
McLaren Progressing
McLaren keep on making progress. Last week’s upgrade led to the biggest margin win of the season, but we are now on a very different circuit. McLaren have not been as good as Red Bull on the straights and their real strengths are now in long, fast, high downforce corners, but they are improving in all areas.
The two long curves are likely to reward McLaren but it is their advantage in terms of tyre degradation which may be their ace this weekend. It could be a bit more ‘last lap Lando’ with their advantage coming late in the stints. They are likely to have the fastest car at some point.
Ferrari Interesting
The interesting one is Ferrari. That this is their home race does not make them faster but their upgrade might, or at least move them closer. We have seen that that not all upgrades have the desired effects.
Indeed, Ferrari’s last one only moved them sideways. More downforce, but with adding porpoising. If they can get rid of the unwanted side effect, they can find a few tenths, but… and it is a big but…. there is no guarantee that it will be the key to unpick the performance lock.
Ferrari have been flying under the radar in recent races. McLaren and Mercedes have been winning races and getting the headlines, but Ferrari have picked up podiums, are still only 32 points behind McLaren and are operating quite well. Their race pace and race execution last week was good. Yes, Piastri maybe should have had the better of Leclerc, but he didn’t. Leclerc drove well and Ferrari ran a better strategy.
Race Pace key
Last year Calos Sainz got pole position for Ferrari, but such was the nature of last year’s car, they were never likely to hold on to the lead, and they finished 3rd and 4th. This year, they are not likely to get pole, but their race pace puts them in the podium window. And if their upgrade works? Ferrari are not without hope.
I was going to wait until after qualifying before considering them for the race win. Ferrari have had a car on the podium here for the last two years, and I would say they are a stronger team in 2024. They will be pulling out all the stops for their home race and a podium seems a real possibility.
Given that they will have more than just a track specific upgrade this weekend, I’ll ignore my own advice and back Leclerc ante-post. Some bookmakers are going a fifth the odds the first three for e/w bets and the odds are big enough to tempt me in.
2024 Italian GP Tip: 1 point e/w Charles Leclerc to win the 2024 Italian GP @ 12.00 (1/5 the odds 1-3) with Skybet, Betfair, BET365, Betvictor
I am a little hesitant to be placing too many ante post bets on the 2024 Italian GP. It has been a venue where teams have taken grid penalties for taking new power units, or components thereof. There were not any last year but in 2022, no less than nine drivers took penalties. There is also the matter of how the newly resurfaced track affects things, but there is one more bet, albeit not a big one.
With Haas showing good straight line speed and with the ability to run long stints, they could go well in the 2024 Italian GP. A one stopper should be well within their grasp and this looks like a track that will suit their car. Hulkenberg is a strong performer and if the car is up to it, he can do the job. It is a very competitive market and we have the likes of Alonso, and Albon in the upgraded Williams, very much in the mix.
