2024 Italian GP Qualifying Update and Tips – JP
2024 Italian GP Qualifying Update
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Italian GP Qualifying update. You can check out his outright betting preview and tips here.
2024 Italian GP Qualifying Preview
It looks like we are in for a very exciting qualifying session, but it may not involve the Red Bulls.
The championship leaders just look to have taken a wrong turn having looked competitive on Friday. Verstappen could only manage 6th in FP3, complaining of understeer, which he hates. Just to highlight the car’s problem, Perez was only 18th. The Mexican looks like he could go out in Q1 and totally on merit. He didn’t get to put in a clean lap on the soft tyres, because he missed the second chicane, but the car is just slow.
Mercedes were first and second, Leclerc just 0.109 off Hamilton’s time. They were followed by the two McLarens just a couple of hundredths off the Ferrari. The timing screens said that Leclerc was on used soft tyres on his last flying lap, yet he was very close to setting the best time. Piastri has looked very quick at times, but also making a few mistakes.
Upgraded Ferrari
Last year it was Carlos Sainz who delighted the Tifosi and with the heavily upgraded Ferrari, Leclerc is primed to do it again, but the competition is fierce. Toto Wolff said that the two fastest drivers, in terms of best sectors, were Piastri and Leclerc. I would take Leclerc to be more likely to string a perfect lap before Piastri.
Charles Leclerc has only managed to get one pole position in 2024 and that was at Monaco, the polar opposite to the nature of Monza. A headscratcher, but it would be ironic if Leclerc got pole position in his home race, and at Ferrari’s home race.
He does have the ability to really string together great qualifying laps and he could pull it off, but so can George Russell, and Hamilton…and Norris, and Piastri looks fast here too. The only certainty is that the two Saubers will not make Q2.
Whoever you fancy, I would say you need odds of around 5.00 before considering them for a bet, it is that close.
Norris Fav
The opening shows have Norris as the 3.50 favourite. He has had three poles in the last six races, but he will have to find a bit more pace. Piastri at 10.00 may be the better value bet for a McLaren pole sitter. George Russell has had two pole positions in the last seven race weekends and he is an 8.00 shot, teammate and fastest man in FP2 and FP3, Lewis Hamilton, is also 8.00.
This could be a session to sit back and enjoy rather to be betting on…but I do have an inkling for Leclerc. Ferrari pulled it off last year and they look to have made a good step with this new upgrade.
