2024 Kempton & Southwell Saturday Tips – DS
2024 Kempton & Southwell Saturday Tips
Two of our three Punchestown selections ran well last Sunday but only one managed to place. Regina Dracones completed but a few sticky jumps late on cost her any chance. Westport Cove was ridden as I hoped but he could only manage fourth. Our NAP Power Hour ran into fourth too, luckily we were on him for four places. We have a nice mix of jumps and flat action to look forward to this weekend, Dave Stevos’ 2024 Kempton & Southwell Saturday tips are below.
1.15 Kempton – Coral Handicap Hurdle (Class 3)
I have to give Up For Parol another chance here. We backed him in the Lanzarote here last month where he was ridden by Tom Bellamy. He decided to set a pretty scorching pace from the front and by the time they reached the last couple of furlongs, his mount was spent.
Tomorrow, regular rider Gavin Sheehan is back on board. He knows this horse very well and he’s been in the saddle for three of his four wins. He was also on board in the 2023 Lanzarote Hurdle when Up For Parol finished a fine third, beat 3.75L for the win off a mark of 129.
This is a weaker race, he is down to a mark of 124 and the ground should be a bit softer tomorrow than it was the last day, which will be a help. I’d imagine a repeat bid in next year’s Lanzarote will be the ultimate aim for this son of Flemensfirth but he’s going to need to win a race to be certain of getting into that, hopefully that win comes today. At 22/1, back Up For Parol e/w.
2024 Kempton & Southwell Saturday Tip: Up For Parol e/w @ 22/1 (4 places)
1.50 Kempton – Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2)
Just six runners in this Grade 2 and it is not a race I have a strong opinion on. The only thing I will say is that Kalif Du Berlais, who is 25/1 for the Triumph, might be a bit short at 10/11. Yes, he was impressive last time but so was Givemefive. Captain Marvellous and Swift Hawk both have potential too so it may not be as straightforward as the odds suggest. None of them are double figure prices though so we’ll leave the race alone. No bet.
2024 Kempton & Southwell Saturday Tip: No Bet
2.08 Newcastle – Eider Handicap Chase (Class 2)
When I looked at this race earlier in the week Flower Of Scotland was 25/1. Unfortunately, her price has collapsed. She is now a best price of 6/1 and if it is the owner that has backed her, he rarely leaves his money behind him. This 9yo mare stays all day, she likes soft ground and she’s a good jumper. The value has gone from her odds but I do think she’ll go very close.
The one I’ll take a chance on each way is Prince Des Fichaux. Trained by Ewan Whillans, this 7yo son of No Risk At All was narrowly beaten on heavy ground here last time out (23f hvy). It was his best run by far for Whillans, who splashed out £35k for him at the HIT sale last May. He’s wrong at the weights here but the fact he carries just 10st 2lbs has to be an advantage on this ground.
Ffos Las Winner
Formerly trained by Sam Thomas, he won a good ground handicap at Ffos Las on his last run for him over 25.5f. That win came off 106 and that’s the same mark he was 2nd off at Newcastle last time.
Fenland Tiger beat him 0.5L that day giving him 8lbs and Whillans’ horse is 2lbs worse off here but if Prince Des Fichaux had jumped the last better, the result may have been different. Fenland Tiger is 6/1 today, I’d rather be on Ewan Whillans’ charge at 16/1 and he is the e/w selection.
2024 Kempton & Southwell Saturday Tip: Prince De Fichaux e/w @ 16/1 (5 placeshills)
2.27 Kempton – Pendil Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
Just six runners and another race I don’t have a strong view on. Five of the six are priced up at 5/1 or shorter so value is very thin on the ground. I thought Soul Icon shaped pretty well here last time in another Grade 2 behind Master Chewy and Nickle Back and the latter horse has since franked that form.
If the ground were to dry out, he could be a threat at 20s but it’s currently soft and his trainer has said before that nice ground is key for him. The percentage call is to leave him alone today but I reckon there might be a win in him at big odds later in the season in a similar race to this.
2024 Kempton & Southwell Saturday Tip: No Bet
2.45 Southwell – Hever Sprint Stakes (Listed)
I might be wrong but I think this is the first ever Southwell all weather race we’ve covered on the blog. I used to love having a bet when they had the fibresand surface there but nowadays, they have a more conventional surface. It’ll be a straight 5f for this race and judging by the amount of potential front runners in here, this is going to be run at a furious pace.
Diligent Harry, Bergerac, Clarendon House, Fine Wine, Hiya Maite, One Night Stand and The Bell Conductor all like to be up there early so they might just set it up for a closer. If he is fit after a 110 day absence, Juan Les Pins could pick up the pieces late on if they go too fast early doors.
First 5f Run
Trained by Mick Appleby, he has yet to race at 5f but he has run some huge races over 6f on his last few starts. He got to within 2L of Lezoo at Newmarket in a Listed heat, he was 0.75L behind Commanche Falls at York and then in the G3 Bengough Stakes at Ascot he was only 1.5L behind Commanche Falls and Annaf.
I think that is top class form and he has the beating of Diligent Harry on a line through Annaf. Obviously, his fitness has to be taken on trust today and there is a chance he could get outpaced if he is too rusty. However, he ran alright on his first run back last year, Mick Appleby’s horses are running well and at odds of 12/1, hopefully he can stay on late to nick some place money.
2024 Kempton & Southwell Saturday Tip: Juan Les Pins e/w @ 12/1
3.00 Kempton – Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)
With three places on offer for e/w players from a couple of firms, Idy Wood is the one I’ll be backing here. Trained by Jamie Snowden (who will have hopefully already had a winner with Up For Parol) this 6yo son of Coastal Path has yet to run a bad race. Last time out he was odds on when winning a Plumpton novice (20f sft) but he has already run well at this level.
Back in October he ran a huge race in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham (16.5f gd), finishing 4.5L third behind subsequent G1 runner up Lookaway. Williethebuilder was back in fourth, 2l behind Idy Wood, yet he is a shorter price here. Kasimas was 1.75L ahead of our selection at Cheltenham and he won a Haydock G2 on his next start.
I think that Cheltenham form is as good a piece of form as any in the context of this race. I can’t understand why Idy Wood is 14s and Williethebuilder is 11s and even on official ratings, there is very little between all of these. At the prices, Idy Wood is the logical e/w bet. Hopefully the ground keeps drying out for him.
2024 Kempton & Southwell Saturday Tip: Idy Wood e/w @ 14/1 (3 places Hills) NB
3.20 Southwell – Winter Derby Stakes (Group 3)
A no bet race. I’m a big Lord North fan and I hope he wins but we’ll move swiftly on to the last live race of the day.
2024 Kempton & Southwell Saturday Tip: No Bet
3.37 Kempton – Coral Trophy Handicap Chase (Premier)
An intriguing race. Cap Du Nord is 8lbs wrong but he won this in 2022 and his owners are no strangers to winning races from out of the handicap. He was running off 127 with Jack Tudor taking off 3lbs in 2022 and he won by almost 4l, beating none other than Kitty’s Light.
Last year he was well beaten off 132 but he was running just 13 days after winning at Ascot by 7L (off 127). He races off 126 today with Tristan Durrell taking off 3lbs and he is exactly the type to bounce back after a few below par runs. It would be no surprise to me if he ran a huge race, especially if it turns good to soft.
Previous
Another one with previous in this race is Killer Kane. He was a fine fifth last year behind Our Power off 131 and he races off the same mark this season. He had wind surgery after running well on his second start of this campaign behind Inch House at Newbury. The benefits were evident immediately as he reappeared 69 days later with a fine effort over this C&D behind Highstakesplayer.
He was beaten 1.75l off 131 and the handicapper has left his rating alone. He is a course and distance winner (off 126) and his career C&D form figures read 1153. Brendan Powell is back on board, this race has likely been his long term target given the prize money on offer and with trip, track and ground all to suit, Killer Kane gets my vote at odds of 12/1.
