2024 Las Vegas GP Outright Betting Preview – JP
2024 Las Vegas GP Betting Preview
We did alright in Brazil, now James Punt is back in action for one of the most glamorous races of the season. Check out his 2024 Las Vegas GP outright betting preview and tips below.
2024 Las Vegas GP Preview
A quick update on the betting record so far. The Sao Paulo GP was quite mad, but we did manage to come out with a decent 8 point profit.
Our bets on Magnussen were void, and stakes returned, unless you bet on the Betfair Exchange. They have it in their rules as all in, run or not. So they can’t lose and you can’t win. A very unfair rule obviously, but it is common in ante post betting for horse racing, and fair enough in that arena. It should not apply where a driver is replaced by another for reasons of sickness, injury or whatever.
If you placed the bet with a good old fashioned sportsbook, you got your money back. That leaves us with a tally of +63.50 points so far this season, with three races to go, starting with this weekend’s Las Vegas GP.
Limited Coverage
Coverage of this weekend’s action will not run to the normal schedule. As I am based in the UK, with the practice sessions taking place in the middle of the night and qualifying and the race start at 6am. I can’t spell my own name until at least 9am.
Coverage this weekend will consist of this preview and a Race Day Update which will be posted sometime on Saturday, well before the start of the race. There will be no update for qualifying as I will not see FP3 live, and that is an important session to keep your eyes on.
The 2024 Las Vegas GP
Last year saw the first Las Vegas GP on the current track. It was…. interesting. The whole Vegas Baby side show was tedious, but the race worked. I was sceptical, but it was one of the more entertaining races of 2023. Whether that makes it a good betting race remains to seen. We did get a nice winner with Charles Leclerc getting pole, I remember that much.
The Track
The track is a bit like Vegas itself. A bit one dimensional. It is all about straight line performance. Yes, there are seventeen corners, but the track’s signature feature is three long straights, leading into heavy breaking, slow corners. There is a short, more technical sector (sector two), but it is about getting past/defending on the straights and or under breaking.
Many of the corners are slow and short but there are a few, longer curves. It may best be described as a cross between Monza, and Baku. Those two races ran back-to-back and not too long ago, so we have a reasonable form guide.
Late Start
One very unique feature of the weekend is the weather. To fit in with local traffic requiring later road closures and making sure the race doesn’t clash with any other big US televised sporting events, qualifying and the race do not start until 10.00pm local time.
It will be dark, and cool. No sunlight to heat the tarmac and the forecast air temperature will be around 13 degrees. Now that is cold by F1 race day standards, but it is some 8 degrees above average for Vegas in November.
The lower temperatures do mean the cars have less grip, and at times last year, it looked like they were racing on ice, but it should be a bit easier this year, especially as the teams have the data from last year.
Last Year’s Race
It was eventually won by Max Verstappen, who had started the race from second place on the grid. He was promoted from third after Carlos Sainz received a 10 place grid penalty for taking a new energy store. His car was damaged by a loose drain cover in FP1. It was not his fault, but he got the penalty. It was a bit of a shambles.
The sessions ran late after repairs were made, and the crowd got sent home before FP2. Sainz qualified second, but what should have been a Ferrari front row lock out, was a pole, but with Sainz back in twelfth place.
First Turn Drama
The race saw Verstappen running Leclerc off the road at the first turn (really? I was shocked), Alonso spun on the low grip surface and there was a lot of bumping and barging, damaging some cars, but not terminally.
Norris had a big crash on lap three after the tyres had cooled right down running under the virtual safety car and he was out. Verstappen was given a 5 second penalty for his attack on Leclerc and the Ferrari led the race after he overtook Verstappen, who then served his 5 second penalty to drop further back.
There was a second safety car when Russell and Verstappen tangled. That was shortly after Leclerc had stopped for new tyres, and he was the loser in that respect. After it all shook down, Verstappen was right behind Leclerc and he was able to pass on one of the long straights.
Leclerc was left fighting with Perez for second and third, and while Perez got past the Ferrari, Leclerc was able to jump Perez at the death to steal second by 0.171 seconds. It was an exciting race because we had a safety car, which turned the race on its head.
Good Efforts
Other good performances that weekend came from Ocon who came from 16th to finish 4th. Lance Stroll finished 5th from 19th on the grid. Sainz made in up to 6th from 12th and Piastri finished 10th having started 18th.
In terms of which teams were running well in qualifying, it was Ferrari who impressed. It all went tits up for them over the weekend, but they had the. best car. Williams had a great qualifying session with Albon in 5th and Sargeant 6th. Their race was affected by the first corner argy bargy. Alpine had a strange weekend. Gasly qualified 4th, but finished 11th, but Ocon finished 4th, but only qualified 16th. As I said, the safety car really mixed things up.
With this being a street circuit, we should be prepared to see something similar this weekend and the best laid plans can go up in smoke. As such, my early impression is that this may not be a great betting track, ironic that it is in Vegas. Then again, you could get lucky, which is very Vegas.
Recent Form
Sao Paulo was an entertaining race, but pretty useless as a form guide. It all ended very well for Red Bull, but it started very badly. Verstappen started the race from 17th on the grid after an unlucky qualifying and a five place penalty for taking a new internal combustion engine.
As the craziness unfolded, including a red flag, which allowed everyone to fit new tyres, it was Verstappen who gained the most and Norris and Russell who lost out having already stopped for new tyres. By the end of the race, Verstappen won the race, with the two Alpines second and third. A nice podium double finish, which nobody had.
Thanks Lance
I was delighted to walk away from the weekend with a profit, thanks to Lance Stroll’s brilliant qualifying performance. Getting into Q3 by the skin of his teeth, and then crashing, causing a red flag and ending any chance of him being out qualified by anyone else.
I don’t care what people say, the boy is a genius, totally worthy of his place in the highest echelon of motorsport. How he was made a 26.00 shot to reach Q3, when rain was expected, is a mystery, but a welcome error by the oddsmaker.
The result in Sao Paulo means that the World Championship battle is effectively over. Verstappen can be crowned the winner this weekend if things go his way, and with a 62 point lead, it will take something very bizarre to stop him from winning another title.
Constructors Fight
The Constructors’ Championship is very much alive, and a three way fight. McLaren still lead the way on 593 points, Ferrari are 36 points behind and Ferrari just 13 points behind Ferrari, and 49 behind McLaren.
Our ante-post bets on McLaren and Norris w/o Verstappen need a solid weekend, but they may have to settle for being second best. The good news is that next weekend’s race in Qatar should be a good venue for them, but this weekend? Ferrari look good.
Recent form has Norris looking strong, but results have not panned out the way they could have. He has been on pole for five of the last seven races, but only converted two into wins.
Leclerc and Sainz took the other two pole positions and Sainz converted his into a win in Mexico, but Leclerc picked up wins at Monza and Texas. Verstappen got the win in Brazil and Piastri in Baku.
Ding Dong Battle
It has been a real ding dong battle, but the two best teams on recent form are McLaren and Ferrari. Red Bull needed a massive slice of luck in Brazil, and they do look to be fighting for a podium with Verstappen.
They have stopped the rot and Verstappen is back to being closer, but in a straightforward race weekend, he should have the third best car. Mercedes have dropped out of the frame for race wins and podiums will need some luck.
The 2024 Las Vegas GP Weather Forecast
It will be dry and pleasant during the day, but the action takes place in the evening. All three nights will be dry. The practice sessions take place on Thursday evening local time, qualifying on Friday, and the race on Saturday evening. Qualifying will see temperatures of around 8 degrees, but race night will see air temperatures of around 13 degrees.
Team-by-Team
McLaren
Great car, a good all-rounder but they have had some poor luck, and poor executions at times. Piastri has been disappointing of late. Norris may well be more relaxed now that the championship race is all but over.
They had a nightmare here last year, scoring just one point, but Piastri set the fastest lap and I expect them to be in the mix for the pole and win, but they are not favourites.
Ferrari
They have got their car back at the sharp end again. They lost their way with a new floor which caused other problems, but a modification has sorted that out and the car is fast, on the right sort of tracks, and this is definitely one of those.
On tracks with long straights and short duration corners, they have been good. Leclerc won in Monza, was second in Baku, from pole position and Sainz won in Mexico. Leclerc was on pole here last year, finished an unlucky second, while Sainz hardly put a foot wrong, but had his weekend ruined by a loose drain cover. Sainz should have finished on the podium in Baku, but for a late crash with Perez.
Having said that they were finished with developments for the rest of 2024, Ferrari will bring a new front wing and a modified floor for this weekend. The floor is only for one car, will be tested in FP1, but may not necessarily be used in the race. Clearly, Ferrari are still pushing.
Red Bull
Verstappen won the Championship early on. He hasn’t had the best car for a while now, but a good head start and some less than stellar performances from McLaren have allowed then to win the drivers title, that and a lot of luck in Brazil. Verstappen has steadied the ship in the last four races, but he does not have the best car. He got lucky here last year, but surely he has used up his luck for 2024 with that race in Brazil?
Perez still races under a cloud. Will he get the sack at the end of the season? He says no, but I guess all he can do is refuse to leave and negotiate a good severance package, as he does have a contract for 2025. The latest rumour is that Colapinto will be named as his replacement for 2024, as soon as this weekend.
This is a track that Perez should like, and he might have a good race. He got a new ‘old’ chassis in Brazil, and while he was still poor, he was happier with the car. It was the same chassis that he crashed in Baku, while fighting for a podium, and indeed maybe the race win. Perez is a much better driver on street circuits, and if he gets the car dialled in quickly, he could have a better than usual weekend.
Mercedes
Running down the clock. Another poor season and there is nothing to suggest that they will finish the season with a flourish. George Russell has got his nose in front of Hamilton in the drivers table, and we need him to stay there to win our seasonal match bet.
Hamilton is leaving the team, is likely being frozen out of any technical meetings and mentally, he has checked out. He is 1-6 vs. Russell in the last seven qualifying sessions, and 2-5 in the races.
Aston Martin
It was simply delightful to get a 26.00 winner out of a team that had mostly a nightmare in Sao Paulo. Both drivers had crashes, and the rushed repairs with bits of different spec cars meant they were not fit to race.
Stroll didn’t even complete the warmup lap, and Alonso was left in chronic pain as the car was bouncing like crazy and finished just fourteenth. They remain in fifth place, but they now have Alpine 37 points behind them, and Haas 40.
It remains to be seen what their situation re spare parts is for this weekend, but the cupboard must be getting bare. Alonso qualified ninth and finished tenth here last year, and he went well in Monza and Baku, so the track may suit. Perhaps he can get back into the points after three blank races.
Alpine
I have seen some strange things in my time covering F1. Alpine getting a double points finish in Brazil was right up there on the strange-o-meter. The car had been showing an uptick in performance, but a crazy, mixed up race with a big slice of luck gave them thirty three points, and moved them up from ninth to sixth in the constructors’ table.
That is worth tens of millions in prize money. Their job is now to hang on to it, but Haas are just three points away, and they have a better car. Alpine had a strange race here last year, and as a team, they have picked up many strange results over the years.
Haas
Another home race for Haas. They have picked up points in the other two, and they are never far away from the top 10 on Sundays. Magnussen qualified ninth here last year, but their race car was poor on Sundays in 2023. With the tyre deg now good, they will be in the mix for more points.
I was keen on Magnussen’s chances for having a good result in Brazil, but his illness meant he didn’t set foot in the car all weekend. He is putting his upturn in form down to the Texas upgrade. He is now totally confident with the car under braking, meaning he can attack the corners and just be faster.
This is a track where you really do need to be confident under braking as it is a key part of putting a good lap time together. He may well be worth backing again this weekend.
Visa RB
Only two points behind Haas in seventh place, and five points behind Alpine in sixth. These three teams are locked in a fascinating battle for sixth place and they will only have eyes on each other.
Tsunoda did not finish either race in Baku or Monza, and the team’s best finish in those two was thirteenth. Tsunoda has really upped his qualifying performance in the last four races and with Lawson replacing Ricciardo, the team have their tails up. They thrived in the wet of Sao Paulo but this looks like a dry weekend.
Williams
There were some rumours that Williams would not be able to race this weekend but they were no more than speculation. Their race weekend in Sao Paulo was a Destruction Derby and both cars were heavily damaged.
Albon was not even able to make the start of the race as his car was not repairable, and then Colapinto totalled his car in the race, causing the red flag which turned the race upside down. Two weeks to repair and rebuild two cars in two weeks, for a team who were threadbare on spare parts in the first place, was not what they needed.
This is a track where I would have been jumping on Albon for points, but what spec of car the team will have cobbled together has put a bit of a damper on that. They will be here, but surely they have to be compromised?
Not just that, but the drivers will have to be very careful that they do not have any more crashes. There are two more races in the next two weeks and if they have any more smash ups, they could have to miss races.
Sauber
Three races to avoid scoring a complete blank in the longest season ever. That is not a record anyone wants. There is no good reason to think that they can score here, or anywhere.
Summary
The jury is still out on this venue. Yes, last year’s race was entertaining, but that was because of the safety car mixing things up. These street races do tend towards having random factors playing an important role in how the race pans out. That can be fun to watch, but hard on bets. I like things to run to form, or close to it, otherwise it can be a bit of a lottery. I will keep the stakes small and try and look for some value bets.
2024 Las Vegas GP Qualifying
Norris has been the most consistent qualifier in recent races with five poles from the last seven. This track is expected to favour Ferrari and it was Leclerc who got pole, from Sainz, here last year. The Ferrari is the best car in short, slow corners, and quick enough on the straights. Being that bit faster in the corners could well be the deciding factor. Max Verstappen has been second in four of the last seven qualifying sessions, but just one pole in the last ten. Piastri was second fastest in qualifying at Monza and Baku which bodes well for his chances.
Qualifying is very competitive, and there are five drivers with realistic claims. I will go for an each way bet on Carlos Sainz. He is in a car that should be best suited to the track. He was second in qualifying last year, despite a less than ideal build up. The thing that points me towards his chances is that he is good on a low grip surface, and that is what we have here. Cold and low on grip could play to his strengths and his last pole was in Mexico, another track that is low on grip. He has made the top three in three of the last five qualifying sessions, and his odds are OK for an each way bet.
2024 Las Vegas GP Tip: 1 point e/w Carlos Sainz to be fastest qualifier @ 7.00 with Boylesports, Betvictor, Betfair, BET365, Skybet (e/w 1/5 the odds 1-3)
I will leave the race winner until Saturday’s Race Day Update.
The top 6 market rarely offers up much value, but I am going to have a small play on Perez. No, I have not been on the turps, just that he is good on street tracks and he has a chassis back which he thinks is going to make a difference.
Confidence is key on street tracks and if the chassis is giving him that bit more, the combination of track and car might allow him to get a decent result. His qualifying in Monza and Baku saw him into Q3 and that is a bare minimum for this weekend.
2024 Las Vegas GP Tip: 1 point Sergio Perez to finish in the top 6 @ 3.25 with Hills (3.00 generally)
I will have another go with Kevin Magnussen. He will be departing F1 at the end of the season but ironically, he has found the updated Haas right up his street.
Magnussen was seventh in the Texas sprint race, but a poor strategy compromised his GP race, finishing eleventh, having qualified ninth. He then qualified seventh in Mexico and finished in the same position.
K-Mag is bang in form and having to miss the Sao Paulo weekend was cruel luck. Magnussen qualified ninth here last year, but the 2023 Haas was a tyre shedder and he dropped out of the top ten.
2024 Las Vegas GP Tip: 1 point Kevin Magnussen to finish in the top 10 @ 2.10 generally available
The final bet for now is a one point bet on a driver who was going to be a two point bet. Alex Albon, made Q3 in Monza and Azerbaijan, scoring points in both, and qualified sixth here last year. His race was compromised by a first corner bump.
Albon has made Q3 in five of the last seven races, and so long as the car is not compromised too badly, he can have another good weekend. I am worried that they have to run with mismatched parts, but if they have enough for one good car, they will give it Albon.
