2024 Mexico GP Raceday Preview & Tips – JP
2024 Mexico GP Raceday Preview
What could go wrong, did go wrong in qualifying. Surely, we are due a change of luck… Check out James’ 2024 Mexico GP Raceday preview and tips below.
2024 Mexico GP Raceday Update
Qualifying was a total wipe out yesterday and I am beginning to forget what a winning bet looks like. Still, bad runs don’t last forever.
The main talking point when looking at the Mexico City GP is the start. We have a huge run down the long straight before the right, left right complex of corners. The pole sitter tends to be a sitting duck, with the following cars getting a nice tow from the pole sitter.
In the previous eight races here, the pole sitter has only gone on to win three times. The driver in second place twice and the third place driver three times, including three of the last four.
Drivers like Verstappen, Norris and even Leclerc, will fancy their chances. Leclerc took the lead from fourth place last weekend thanks to Verstappen and Norris going out wide and leaving a great big space for Leclerc to drive through and from then on, he was never troubled.
First Corner Trouble
The first corner complex is also a regular scene of car to car contacts. Cars barrelling into the corner, coming off a long straight with the cars in front braking is a recipe for collisions and just getting through intact is a bonus.
This track is a bit strange and not just because it is at altitude. The surface is low on grip, and the corners are mostly slow. It is easy to slide the tyres and that can start to overheat them and you get a vicious circle of poor grip.
Carlos Sainz is a good driver in low grip conditions, which may explain why he has been faster than Leclerc all weekend. Unfortunately, we backed the other Ferrari ante-post. We are on the right team, but the wrong driver.
Team-by-Team Raceday Outlook
Ferrari
The Ferrari is very strong in slow corners and this track is full of them. The car has good race pace, as we saw last week, and I wouldn’t rule out another 1-2. It will be hard for Sainz to hold on to his lead at the start, but he is still in the fastest car and over a race distance, that should tell.
It may be that he does keep his lead, as Verstappen and Norris will only have eyes on each other. Verstappen knows that Norris cannot afford to take risks, so he will look to block him, and that may let Leclerc have another open door to drive through. Sainz says that he has less to lose compared to those around him, so he can be a bit more aggressive at the start.
Red Bull
Very much in danger of being overtaken by Ferrari in the Constructors’ table. Verstappen is fighting the good fight, but he is doing it alone. Perez failed to get out of Q1 and he really needs to just stop. Give up. Walk away. He looks like a nervous breakdown is already in progress.
Verstappen is a five time winner around this track, but he doesn’t have the best car this year. He has manged a podium in the last two races but he has had to work hard for them. Ferrari and McLaren looked to have the edge on race pace, so it will be hard for him today.
McLaren
The third fastest car this weekend, says Norris, but they had looked very strong in FP3, so maybe it was just a sub optimal lap. It certainly was for Piastri, who once again lost his lap time for exceeding track limits and he failed to get out of Q1. He did it in the Sprit Qualifying last weekend, but this is much more damaging. Starting from seventeenth means he has a lot of work to make his way back up and into the points.
Ferrari are closing in on McLaren’s Constructors’ title lead, and they need both drivers to keep that dream, and our bet, alive. He made up six places in the sprint race and that was over just 19 laps, so over 71 today, he should be looking at the top 6. Lando Norris started seventeenth here last year and finished fifth, so it can be done.
Mercedes
The fourth best car this weekend, but they have got the third row, thanks to Piastri’s mistake. The car usually has decent race pace, but they have fast cars in front of them. Their major worry must be keeping the car on the track. They have been suffering with a lot of crashes and on a low grip track, you do not want to be driving a Bucking Bronco.
Haas
Arguably the fifth best car this weekend and they are looking at a good helping of points, but only if they execute the race flawlessly, which they didn’t manage last week, turning Magnussen’s sixth on the grid into an eleventh in the race thanks to a poor strategy. They are targeting Aston Martin in the Constructors’ table and if they are to do that, they need double points finishes.
Alpine
Gasly qualified in the top 10 for the second race in a row. Both drivers have the upgraded car, but Ocon only qualified nineteenth. Gasly failed to convert a sixth place start into any points last week thanks to some poor driving getting him a penalty, and a poor pitstop didn’t help either. He deserves a break this weekend.
Williams
Albon finally managed to put his new teammate in his place. He starts from ninth place, Colapinto sixteenth. The Argentinian has not really been on it all weekend. Albon has converted four of his six top ten qualifications into points and the three times he qualified ninth, he has finished ninth.
Visa RB
Tsunoda binned it at the end of Q2, ruining his teammate’s chances of making Q3 at the same time. It was all looking good for Visa RB and they had a real shout of getting both cars into the top ten, but Tsunoda’s limitations ended that hope. Their car has tended to be a better qualifier than racer, but Lawson turned his eleventh place on the grid into a ninth place finish last weekend.
Aston Martin
Really struggling this weekend, never really close to top ten pace.
Sauber
Bottas, like Sainz, is a driver who goes well on low grip circuits. He starts fifteenth, which is actually close to his seasonal average of 15.7. His average finishing position is 16.1, so I do not expect much from him today. Zhou was plumb last as usual.
2024 Mexico GP Raceday Summary
We have seven different manufacturers represented in the top 10. Piastri and Perez did free up a couple of spaces so maybe Albon and Hulkenberg are flattered to be in there. Piastri will be after their places, Perez? I am not so sure. He has a ton of experience of recovery drives but in 2024 he has failed to get out of Q1 four times and only once did he recover to score points.
The odds for the race winner are interesting, Sainz is a 2.77 shot, Verstappen 4.50, Norris 3.50 and Leclerc 7.50 (win only).
Max Winless In Nine
Verstappen has gone nine races without a win. In that time Leclerc has won two, Norris two, Piastri two, Russell two and Hamilton one. Mercedes have lost that competitive edge and Piastri is too far back today.
The pendulum has swung many times and nobody has managed to get a real grip on things. McLaren have threatened to and perhaps should have done better, but right now the pendulum has swung Ferrari’s way.
We have backed Leclerc ante post, and he is not out of this yet, but past form here suggests it is between the top three on the grid. Sainz has converted two of his five pole positions into race wins and his odds look about right. He is due a bit of luck and he has been the better of the two Ferrari drivers this weekend.
Leclerc looked pretty angry after qualifying yesterday, realising they had been poor. Hopefully he can turn it around today. The Ferrari looks the car to be in and they have two drivers in the fight, while McLaren and Red Bull are flying solo.
2024 Mexico GP Raceday Tip: 2 points Ferrari to be the winning team @ 2.00 with Boylesports, Betvictor, Betfair
Podium betting and top 6 markets look very boring. I was hoping to get a decent price on Piastri making the top 6, but his best odds are just 1.91. The one thing that could spice up the top six betting is if we get a bit of attrition from the front runners.
The cars’ reliability these days tends to minimise that, so it would need accidents. Norris and Verstappen have only tripped over each other once, despite a lot of close racing, they have kept it clean. Maybe there is a bit of Alpha male vs. Beta male at play, unlike Hamilton vs. Verstappen. They were more likely to lock horns.
Argy Bargy
The track layout does invite trouble in the first few corners, so we could see a bit of argy bargy. It has happened before, in 2017 Hamilton starting third got a puncture after being hit by Vettel. Vettel needed a new wing and Hamilton had to do a lap with a flat tyre, Vettel finished 4th, Hamilton 9th.
Bottas got hit by Riccardo in 2021 and from pole position, the Finn finished 15th. Last year it was Perez, starting 5th, who crashed out at the first corner.
In the eight races here a driver from outside the top 6 on the grid has finished inside it at the end. On four occasions, it was the driver who started seventh and twice from eighth. Could KMag make it five for lucky number seven?
The Haas is a more competitive machine since its upgrade last week. He has now had back to back seventh places in qualifying and the car was really good on the medium tyres, so I think his race pace will be good. It is likely that he would still need a bit of luck, but he might just get it.
2024 Mexico GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Kevin Magnussen to finish in the top 6 @ 3.50 with Unibet, Livescorebet, BET365
In the points finish markets there are a couple, well are lots of contenders, but there are two I like.
Pierre Gasly starts from eighth place in the upgraded Alpine and is 2.75 to finish in the points. He started sixth last week, but things went Pete Tong and he ended up twelfth. It wasn’t a fault with the car, but a poor pitstop cost him five seconds and he then got stuck in slow moving traffic.
He also picked up a five second penalty for exceeding track limits and it was just one of those bad days at the office. I am happy to give him another go at what are decent odds.
2024 Mexico GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Pierre Gasly to finish in the points @ 2.75 generally available
Starting from outside the top ten is Liam Lawson in the Visa RB. He was top ten in all three practice sessions but in qualifying, his last flying lap in Q2 was aborted due to his teammate crashing and bring out the yellow flags. It was another kick in the teeth for us, but the car has been quick all weekend.
Tsunoda was third in FP1 and FP2, seventh in FP3. The Japanese driver is just 1.73 to finish in the points, starting one place ahead of Lawson. The Kiwi is available at 3.75. That is quite a difference for a driver in the same car lining up alongside his teammate.
Tsunoda does not have a good record here. He crashed in 2021 and retired in 2022 with collision damage. He was twelfth last year. His then teammate, Daniel Ricciardo was seventh, having qualified 4th, so the team know how to get a result here. Maybe it is the Honda power unit?
