2024 Miami GP Raceday Update & Tips – JP
2024 Miami GP Raceday Preview
James nicked a couple of nice winners in the Sprint race yesterday. Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Miami GP Raceday Preview, fingers crossed for more of the same.
2024 Miami GP Raceday: Team By Team
Red Bull
Verstappen has been fastest in all four sessions so far and is 1.18 to be so again in the Grand Prix. Perez has not been better than third and starts fourth.
Verstappen has said that he has struggled on this track (but so has everyone). The tyres are overheating and losing grip but he doesn’t expect too many problems over a race distance.
Perez said that he made a mistake which cost him a front row slot. He believes that there is more speed in the car than fourth place on the grid suggests. He will be eyeing his fifth podium of the season.
Ferrari
Have returned to be Red Bull’s nearest rivals this weekend. Leclerc started the weekend by spinning after two laps of FP. He had to abandon his car and took no further part. He has done well to finish second in the following three sessions.
Carlos Sainz starts third and he will not be an easy pass for Perez. The Red Bull is the quicker car and I would expect Perez to get at least one of the Ferraris. Perez may have to settle for third as Leclerc has had better pace in the three sessions he was active in.
McLaren
A bit disappointing really. Norris set the fastest lap of the weekend in the second phase of sprint qualifying, but since then, he has struggled. He says he had a reasonable qualifying and fifth and sixth is as good as the car is.
After such a big upgrade package, just to be third quickest, I’d say it is disappointing. They put more wing on the car after the Sprint race, giving up straight line speed but looking for better tyre degradation perhaps? They will find it hard to pass anyone on the straights now.
Mercedes
Merc’s upgrade package appears to have moved them to fourth best car this weekend, but Aston Martins woes may have flattered them.
Russell qualified seventh for the third time this year but will he have the race pace to fight the McLarens? Probably not, but the Mercedes is not a predictable performer. The bottom line is that the car is not in the same league as the top three.
They usually go well enough here but to move up the order, they will need the cars in front to have issues. Hamilton starts from eighth and he did well to get that high up. His car was very skittish and it was clearly hard work just to get it to turn. The team took some rear wing off after the sprint race. That improved straight line speed a little but made cornering harder.
Haas
We have become used to having Hulkenberg well ahead of his teammate after qualifying. Magnussen always seems to get bad luck and his final lap was ruined by traffic.
The Dane was worth the entry fee for his antics in the Sprint race. His job was to hold up Hamilton and allow Hulkenberg to score points in the Sprint. He did it by dubious means, but to Hamilton’s credit, he said he was fine with it. It was hard racing but Magnussen got more penalties than Liverpool, all of which were fully deserved said the Haas driver.
Hulkenberg has an average finishing position of tenth across the last four races, but he will probably need one or two cars ahead of him to have problems. The Haas is very quick on the straights and that will make them hard to pass. Hulkenberg is a 2.10 shot to finish in the points and there is a touch of value in those odds.
Visa RB
What a strange weekend for Visa RB. Daniel Riccardo was fourth in the Sprint qualifying and Sprint race, but just eighteenth in the GP qualifying. With his three place penalty carried forward from China, Ricciardo starts plumb last.
However, Tsunoda starts in tenth place. He had a good Sprint race, promoted to eighth after Hamilton’s penalty. Tsunoda has finished eleventh and twelfth here in the first two races, and he will be in the mix for points today.
Aston Martin
Alonso has been very disappointing so far. Getting hit by Hamilton at the start of the sprint race didn’t help, but he has been second best to Stroll all weekend which suggests there is a problem somewhere. He is expecting ‘a challenging race’.
A good start from Stroll could lead to points, but as we saw yesterday, the first corner here is tight and starting right in the middle of the pack is the worst place to be.
Alpine
Our two ante post longshots for a points finish start from twelfth and thirteenth, their best of the season. It will be tough to convert that into points, but with a bit of luck, it can be done.
Gasly started the sprint race from sixteenth but finished an encouraging ninth. Ocon’s sprint was runed by his 10 second penalty for driving into Leclerc in the pitlane.
The upgrades on the car are working as expected and there is a cautious optimism that they can finally get some points on the scoreboard. Fingers crossed. At least we stole the value at 11.00 for each driver. They are now 3.25 shots.
Williams
Albon qualified fourteenth for the third race in a row. He hasn’t converted any of those into points. He was the fastest on the straight in the sprint race yesterday, Sargeant second fastest.
They both made up some places in the Sprint yesterday but Albon was complaining that the tyres were going off after just a few corners in yesterday’s qualifying. Hopefully that won’t be quite the same problem over a race distance and the track is not regarded as being hard on tyres. It was the heat that was causing problems.
Kick Sauber
Back to being slow after a better showing in China.
The Weather
The earlier forecasts had put the chance of rain as high as 60% for Sunday, but that has reduced to around 20%, so expect a dry race. The breeze will be moderate and air temperature 28 degrees. Very similar conditions to what we have had every day of the weekend so far.
2024 Miami GP Raceday: Summary
The theme of this race will be Verstappen winning from the front again. We should see a bit of a scrap between the two Ferraris and Perez. After that, we will get a DRS train and very possibly a quite boring processional race. Unless we get some accidents and safety cars to mix things up.
Last year we had no retirements, no safety cars and only one pit stop. The track has low tyre degradation, so a one stopper is very doable.
If you are thinking of a fastest lap bet, look out for those drivers starting on the hard tyre. That is durable enough to do the whole race on, but with a mandatory stop required, they would likely hang on for as long as possible on the hard, hope for a late safety car, before a switch to the softs.
The undercut here is weak and a well executed pitstop should allow drivers to keep their track position. It has the makings of a dull race, but accidents could change that.
We have three ante post bets running today. The Alpine drivers to finish in the points, and Russell to beat Hamilton.
2024 Miami GP Raceday Selections
Hulkenberg is regularly finishing in the points. He has done so in three of the last four races and his car is configured to be hard to pass in the race. He just needs to get a clean start and keep his head down. His odds look a bit generous at odds against.
2024 Miami GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Nico Hulkenberg to finish in the points @ 2.10 with BET365
A small wager on the upgraded McLaren. His lap in SQ2 remains the fastest of the weekend, so we know there is pace in the car, and the odds are good enough for a small flutter.
2024 Miami GP Raceday Tip: 0.5 point Lando Norris to set the fastest lap @ 13.00 generally available
Ricciardo was the star of the sprint race, keeping the Ferrari of Carlos Sainz behind him for so long. That illustrated just how hard it is to overtake here.
The DRS train was much in evidence yesterday and there was little overtaking where you would expect it. Starting from the very back, Ricciardo has a lot of work to do to catch Albon who starts six places ahead of him.
Albon is 3-1 vs. Riccardo in 2024 (they retired after crashing into each other in Japan).
