2024 Newbury & Ripon Saturday Preview – DS
2024 Newbury & Ripon Saturday Preview
We had to endure our first blank for a while at the Curragh last weekend. Just Before ran a stinker, Ano Syra ran ok but failed to place, Shadow Army never landed a blow and Ice Cold In Alex narrowly missed a place. Hopefully we can make amends this weekend, get Dave Stevos’ 2024 Newbury & Ripon Saturday tips below.
1.50 Newbury – Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group 3)
Just a five runner affair to start off the day and I can’t make a case for the outsider. I’d like to see Sumo Sam run well but she would probably need the heavens to open and she has had a wind-op so we’ll leave her alone. No bet.
2024 Newbury & Ripon Saturday Tip: No bet
2.05 Newmarket – Grey Horse Handicap (Class 4)
A class four handicap restricted to greys. There were rumours that the union representing chestnut horses was going take legal action regarding their exclusion but they decided against it in the end. Mister Bluebird ran a blinder in this last year, beaten just 1.5L into third by Silver Samurai off a mark of 84.
Heather Main’s son of Outstrip returns for another bite of the cherry and this time he is in off 76. He produced excellent efforts earlier this summer when third at Goodwood (6f) and Epsom (7f) off 77 but he does need to bounce back from an underwhelming effort at Yarmouth last time out.
He has rebounded after similarly poor runs in the past and he was conceding 14lbs to Strike when he had him a length behind in this last year. This time he only has to give him a pound so you’d have to fancy him to uphold that form. The booking of Billy Loughnane is a plus and odds of 12/1 about Mister Bluebird are big enough to warrant an e/w interest.
2024 Newbury & Ripon Saturday Tip: Mister Bluebird e/w @ 12/1 nb
2.25 Newbury – BetVictor Handicap (Class 3)
It has probably gone under the radar somewhat given the calibre of horses he’s been riding but Joe Leavy has been in great form in the past fortnight, winning on seven of his twenty rides. He gets the leg up on Faustus here and he could be a shade overpriced on his second start for Rachel Cook & John Bridger.
This 6yo knows how to win and he scored five times when trained by Robert Cowell. He won at Nottingham back in June off 72 and he won off 76 at Brighton in August 2023. He was sent off a 25/1 shot on his first run for his new yard and he ran a grand race, beaten just 2L at Windsor (5f, gd/fm).
The handicapper gave him a pound back for that run and with Leavy’s 5lb claim he is effectively racing off 70 here. The son of Mayson seems to act on most ground, hopefully he can make a bold bid here at odds of 22/1.
2024 Newbury & Ripon Saturday Tip: Faustus e/w @ 22/1
2.45 Ripon – Silver Trophy Handicap (Class 4)
The curtain raiser for the main event at Ripon today. A high draw is usually a big advantage over 6f at Ripon, especially for front runners. Thornaby Pearl would be interesting off 66 from stall 18 if it rained as there has been soft in the ground description for all of his four wins, including two over C&D.
However, the weather forecast is dry and, on this ground, I will instead take a chance on another prominent racing C&D winner from a nice draw in stall 15. It Just Takes Time is admittedly hard to fancy on recent exploits. Mark Walford’s son of Power has been disappointing since placing at Doncaster in April off 83 but he is now down to an extremely tempting mark.
He races off 77 today, 6lb lower than he was at Doncaster and 13lb lower than he was when winning his second race over this C&D last June on good to firm off 90. He ran in the main event here last year, finishing eighth of 18 off 92 and this will be a whole lot easier than that. Given his recent form, he isn’t one for maximum stakes but he is well handicapped and nicely drawn so at 25/1, a small e/w interest is advised.
2024 Newbury & Ripon Saturday Tip: It Just Takes Time e/w @ 25/1 (5 places)
3.00 Newbury – TPT Fire Handicap (Class 2)
It is hard to believe that it is six years since we backed Accidental Agent to win the Queen Anne at Ascot. Obviously, ever since then he has remained one of my favourites and he is back for more at the age of 10. Is he worth a bet on his first run back from a 297 day absence? He might be.
He is understandably a big price today but there are some reasons for optimism. Firstly, his record when fresh. When returning from absences of 120 days or longer he has form figures 51335415. Last year’s reappearance fifth came at Newmarket off 104 and he was only beaten 2.25l for the win. He races off 92 today.
Another cause for optimism is his liking for Newbury. He has never won here but he only finished out of the first four once in four runs here and two of those runs came in Group 1/Listed company. He ran in a handicap here in 2021 and was 2.75l fourth off 107. With Mia Nicholls’ 5lb claim he’s effectively in off 87 today.
I have talked (or written) myself into having a small e/w interest on Accidental Agent at odds of 28/1.
2024 Newbury & Ripon Saturday Tip: Accidental Agent e/w @ 28/1 (4 places)
3.20 Ripon – Great St Wilfrid Handicap (Class 2)
There looks to be plenty of early speed in Ripon’s feature. Mister Wagyu (19), Wobwobwob (15), Manila Scouse (14) and Emperor Spirit (10) have all raced prominently in the past and in the hope that the pace collapses late on, I am going to take a punt on the usually patiently ridden Rock Opera.
Trained by Richard Fahey (whose stable jockey Oisin Orr prefers Dare To Hope) Cam Hardie gets the leg up on this 4yo son of Unfortunately. He races off a mark of 81 today, 4lb higher than he was when narrowly winning at Doncaster back in June (6f, gd/fm).
Fahey’s charge has run big races on his last two starts off his revised mark, third at York and then fourth at Windsor, beaten around 1.5L in both races. He arguably could have won last time at Windsor for Cam Hardie and I am hoping he is eager to make amends. At odds of 16/1, Rock Opera is the e/w selection.
2024 Newbury & Ripon Saturday Tip: Rock Opera e/w @ 16/1 (5 places) NAP
3.35 Newbury – Hungerford Stakes (Group 2)
My 2023 nemesis Witch Hunter won this last year and is back to defend his crown. We managed to nick some place money with him in the Lockinge earlier in the season and he looks to hold every chance today. The outsiders Jumby and Popmaster are hard to make a case for and with just two places on offer, we’ll leave this race alone. No bet.
