2024 Newmarket Craven Meeting Preview & Tips – DS
2024 Newmarket Craven Meeting Preview
After seeing Gemirande run an absolute stinker I am leaving Cheltenham alone today. Wobwobwob ran equally as badly but I’d imagine he has another target in mind. Whip Cracker at least nicked the e/w money in second and we landed a very nice winner with Pretty Crystal at 18s in the Nell Gwyn. Fingers crossed for more of the same on Thursday, check out Dave Stevos’ 2024 Newmarket Craven Meeting preview below.
1.50 Newmarket – Bet365 Handicap (Class 2)
Not the easiest of starts to the day. A seventeen runner, 6f handicap for 3yos and the ground is good. Adrian Nicholls’ two runners at this meeting earlier this week both ran well. Tees Spirit hacked up on Tuesday and then Abate ran a lovely race to finish sixth here on Wednesday, beat just 3.5L.
Clearly, his horses are in good form and he runs Ingleby Ivy here. She comes into the race with a rating of 80 after three runs as a 2yo. She was well beaten in a Listed race at York on soft on her last start of 2023 but previously, she hosed up in a Ripon Novice (6f) on good ground, her only start on a sound surface.
After she won that race Nicholls said, ‘she’s well above average’. The fact that he ran her in a Listed race next time suggests he was being honest. A low draw has tended to be an advantage in this race and she has been drawn in stall 1. Paddy Mathers rode a winner for Nicholls at Thirsk last week, hopefully he can repeat the trick on Ingleby Ivy at odds of 16/1.
2024 Newmarket Craven Meeting Tip: Ingleby Ivy e/w @ 16/1 (5 places) nb
2.25 Newmarket – Wood Ditton Maiden Stakes (Class 2)
Three of the last five winners of this have returned at double figure odds so a surprise is not out of the question. All of these are unraced so all we have to go on is trainer form and pedigree. Charlie Hills runs two here and the one I like on breeding is Lovemeforareason.
This filly is by one of my favourite sires, Teofilo. She is out of a Shamardal mare who failed to win but she is a full sister to Dan Excel, a three time G1 winner in Hong Kong. Lovemeforareason is a close relation to Asiaaf, a 10f winner on good ground and this looks the right trip for her starting out.
Now, it must be said that Charlie Hills hasn’t yet had a winner this year. He is 0/24 but he has had eight places and Bodorgan ran a cracker for him here on Tuesday. Hills also runs Dancing Away who is the mount of Jim Crowley and she is shorter in the betting. However, she sports a hood on debut and that is a little bit disconcerting.
Obviously, given the dearth of form on offer here this is a race for small stakes. However, I do like Lovemeforareason’s page and at odds of 40/1, hopefully she knows her job first time out. A modest e/w interest is advised.
2024 Newmarket Craven Meeting Tip: Lovemeforareason e/w @ 40/1
3.00 Newmarket – Abernant Stakes (Group 3)
Two friends of the blog make their seasonal reappearances in this 6f Group 3. Commanche Falls, who we backed to win the Stewards’ Cup in 2022 at huge odds, is a standing dish in these sort of races nowadays and the form of his short head second to Annaf at Ascot in October is looking pretty solid now. The days of him being double figure odds are long gone now though, unfortunately.
Although he hasn’t won for us yet, Run To Freedom has landed some nice e/w touches for us. We were on him at 80s for the Champion Sprint in 2022 when he finished second at 150s and we also backed him at silly odds when he was runner up to Shaquille in the July Cup last Summer.
I have no doubt that his horse is capable of winning a Group 1 sprint this season. However, he has never won on his seasonal return and I’d imagine Henry Candy is using this race as a stepping stone towards bigger races later on in the year. 10/1 is too short for us in any case so we’ll leave the son of Muhaarar alone today.
Flying Form
Few trainers are in better form than Ed Walker right now. He had a double here on Tuesday and he runs Popmaster and Makarova in this. The former horse has usually taken a run or two to hit top form in previous campaigns but Makarova ran well enough over C&D on unsuitable ground last season on her comeback.
William Buick gets the leg up on this 5yo daughter of Acclamation today. She ran some massive races in Group 1 company last term, all at 5F. In G1s at York and Longchamp she finished off very strongly over the minimum trip and when she stepped up to 6f in the Champion Sprint, the soft ground was not in her favour.
Her career form figures on good ground at 6f read 1822. She has run well (2nd & 5th) on her two previous visits to this track, both at 6f, with the 2nd coming in a Listed race over this C&D. William Buick is 23/105 with 29 Top 4s when riding for Walker, I think he can improve on that frame hitting strike rate in this. At odds of 14/1, Makarova is the e/w selection.
2024 Newmarket Craven Meeting Tip: Makarova e/w @ 14/1 (4 places) NAP
3.35 Newmarket – Craven Stakes (Group 3)
Just seven runners in this year’s Craven Stakes and only Betfred are paying three places. Kempton maiden winner Native Approach is the market leader for Appleby and Buick. It was an impressive display on the all weather last time but Alcantor has form at a much higher level.
Unlike Fabre’s runner on Wednesday, this horse has form on ground with good in the description and he also has Group 1 form in the book on softer ground. It is going to take a pretty useful one to beat him if he is fit and I think he should be the favourite.
Bigger Price
Another one that has form at the top table, albeit unplaced form, is the 16/1 shot Haatem. A hardy 2yo that ran nine times, he won a G2 at Goodwood last season over 7f. On his final start of 2023 Hannon pitched him into the G1 Dewhurst and while he only finished fifth, he was only 4l behind Eben Shaddad in third.
The son of Phoenix Of Spain holds a Guineas entry and today will tell if that is a fanciful plan. He comes into the race with his trainer in solid form and on this better ground, I think he can close the gap to Eben Shaddad. Sean Levey is riding out of his skin, hopefully he can steer Haatem into the first two (or three if you can get on with Betfred) at odds of 16/1.
