2024 Newmarket & Haydock Saturday Preview – DS
2024 Newmarket & Haydock Saturday Preview
Commanche Falls got us out of jail on a tough weekend last week. The Cambridgeshire is the main event on this wet weekend, check out Dave Stevos’ 2024 Newmarket & Haydock Saturday tips below.
1.15 Newmarket – Jersey Lily Nursery Handicap (Class 2)
The summer is officially over. Heavy rain at Haydock and HQ this week means we’ll be racing on testing ground and first up is this 7f nursery for the fillies. Ghost Run is the current favourite but like many of her rivals, her ability to handle these conditions is a complete unknown.
The next two in the betting, Magic Love and Geo, have both at least got form on good to soft and the latter horse is from the family of Zoffany so there is every chance she will go on bad ground. Two that have form on soft ground are Naina, a winner on soft at Brighton, and Harmonia, who was beaten a head on soft at Beverley.
Millman Filly
They are both single figure odds though and I am instead going to take a punt on Rod Millman’s filly, Santa Savana. By Havana Grey, this filly won on her debut at Leicester over 6f on good to soft ground. Since then, she has been highly tried and she wasn’t disgraced in a Listed behind Celandine at Newmarket in June or in a G3 at Salisbury when beaten 5.25l behind Tabiti.
She got hiked up 4lb for that last run and she now makes her handicap debut off 85. She was only a length behind the 92 rated Betty Clover last time so her mark could be workable. Testing ground is an unknown but her Showcasing dam won on soft and her grand-dam is related to a soft ground winner too.
Neil Callan gets the leg up for the first time and he is 2/13 with four top 4s when riding for Millman. Hopefully he can steer Santa Savana into the money here at odds of 16/1.
2024 Newmarket & Haydock Saturday Tip: Santa Savana e/w @ 16/1 (4 places)
1.30 Haydock – Sky Bet Handicap (Class 2)
We have backed Navagio for the Cambridgeshire but he’s also been declared for this. You can read my reasoning for fancying him here. If he does pitch up at Haydock, he’ll be running off a 3lb lower mark so clearly, he has to have a big chance in what is an easier race. If he does run in this, he’ll be worth backing at around 11/1 but in the hope he heads to the big one, Flying Finn is going to be my bet here.
She has failed to fire on her last two runs, on the AW at Newcastle and on good ground at Longchamp. However, her last run on heavy saw her finish a fine third in a Longchamp Listed heat and that wasn’t her first good effort on testing ground. Her form figures on soft/heavy read 2113 and while a mark of 93 doesn’t look a gimme, her ability to thrive in these conditions is a big plus. 20/1 looks huge considering the ground and at those odds, an e/w interest is advised.
2024 Newmarket & Haydock Saturday Tip: Flying Finn e/w @ 20/1
1.50 Newmarket – Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2)
The first of three stakes races this afternoon is the G2 Royal Lodge. Only two of these juveniles have form on soft ground. Puppet Master, who is 4/1, and Law Of Design, who is a much more attractive 14/1. I know which price I prefer.
Law Of Design is an already gelded son of Sottsass. His sire won an Arc on heavy and his dam won a G3 on soft so it was hardly surprising that he seemed to relish soft ground on his second start when winning decisively at Ascot earlier this month. The runner up was rated 82 so it was a solid effort and he has since gone on to win a Novice easily at Newcastle.
I really like Wimbledon Hawkeye as a horse and if he handles this ground, he’s the one to beat in my book. However, this ground could be a big equaliser and in the hope that it slows most of his rivals down, Law Of Design is the each way selection at 14/1.
2024 Newmarket & Haydock Saturday Tip: Law Of Design e/w @ 14/1 (3 places B365) NB
2.25 Newmarket – Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1)
Of the top three in the betting, only Daylight has form on soft ground. Of course, the other two could handle the conditions but you just can’t be certain until they actually go and do it. The only other one in here with experience on bad ground is the other French raider, Rayevka.
Trained by our old pal, Goliath’s handler Monsieur Graffard, this Blue Point filly has raced twice. First up, she was beaten a neck at Deauville on her debut in August. According to the Racing Post the ground was heavy, but on the ATR site they say it was good. Then on her second start, she landed a conditions race at Chantilly by 5l on ground described as soft by the Racing Post and very soft by ATR. Go figure.
Anyway, Blue Point’s progeny seem to go on any ground and Rayevka’s dam, Rayisa, showed some of her best form on soft. This filly has achieved a lot less than some of her rivals here and she has to prove she can compete at this level. The ground should be in her favour though and odds of 12/1 are big enough to warrant a small e/w interest.
2024 Newmarket & Haydock Saturday Tip: Rayevka e/w @ 12/1
3.00 Newmarket – Middle Park Stakes (Group 1)
Unfortunately, on this ground it is hard to see past the favourite Whistlejacket. He has winning soft ground form in the book and he’s well clear on the figures. Can anything go well at a price? The best angle I could find was that Jouncy’s half-sister, Array, won a Newbury G2 on heavy for Andrew Balding last year. Can Jouncy follow in her hoofsteps?
He is by Wootton Bassett, a G1 winner on soft ground. His dam is by Oasis Dream and the Wootton Bassett x Oasis Dream cross has produced a trio of soft ground winners in Chindit, Zadar and Sweet Fantasy. Jouncy has a good bit to find on the figures but he went close in an AW G3 last time and I am hoping that most of his rivals flounder on this ground and he handles it.
This is a speculative selection so keep stakes small, but there is enough encouragement in Jouncy’s pedigree to justify a modest e/w interest at odds of 33/1.
2024 Newmarket & Haydock Saturday Tip: Jouncy e/w @ 33/1 (3 places)
3.15 Haydock – 5f Handicap (Class 2)
In the hope that he has been aimed at this nice pot again after winning it last year, Never Dark is the one I like here. Trained by Iain Jardine, who has been amongst the winners, this son of No Nay Never took this off 82 last year under this claimer. He is back for the repeat bid off a mark of 78 and the ground will be soft, just like in 2023.
This season his sole win came in a Nottingham handicap off 75 back in July. Bar a second at Wolverhampton last month he has been pretty quiet since, but he didn’t run too badly at huge odds in the Ayr Silver Cup last week, finishing eleventh overall but fourth of ten in his group.
Two of his eight career wins have come on soft ground so conditions hold no fears and we know he is more than capable of winning off his current mark. His draw in stall 6 should be fine and if he breaks well, he might get his own way out in front. Hopefully Never Dark can make a bold bid for us at odds of 25/1.
2024 Newmarket & Haydock Saturday Tip: Never Dark e/w @ 25/1
3.40 Newmarket – Cambridgeshire Handicap (Premier)
As I mentioned earlier, we have already backed Navagio for this race at 100/1. The rain has come for him but he’s still in at Haydock at the time of writing so in case he goes there, I am going to back another one as a contingency plan.
Obviously, we’ll need a horse that handles testing ground and I think stamina will be a big asset in these conditions too. The one that fits the bill at a working man’s price is the 28/1 shot, Paddy The Squire.
By Golden Horn, this 4yo is an ultra-consistent performer. Since undergoing a wind-op last year, he hasn’t finished out of the first three in six starts. He got off the mark in July of last year at Ayr, winning a 10f handicap on soft ground off 80. He then followed that up with an excellent effort behind Postileo off 85 in the Silver Bell over 12f at Hamilton.
Pleasing Return
Jardine’s charge only made his return to action this year last month at Hamilton over 9f. He again ran a blinder, beaten a short head on soft ground off 85. Two weeks ago he ran another excellent race off 87 to finish third on soft ground over 10.5f and he is in off the same rating here.
Presumably, Jardine held this colt back for a backend campaign on soft ground. He gets his ideal conditions here and he has won over 10f, so a strongly run race on this ground should be right up his street. He’s drawn in stall 21, which isn’t too bad, and regular partner Andrew Mullen keeps the ride. At odds of 28/1, Paddy The Squire is worth backing e/w.
