2024 Newmarket & York Saturday Preview

We landed a winner on Arc day with Makarova. Our 16/1 NAP won well and gained a deserved first success at the top table. The draw and ground conspired against Sunway and the draw also put paid to Matilda Picotte’s chances but she still ran her heart out, as per usual. We now turn our attention to HQ for the Dewhurst and Cesarewitch and our best bet of the day runs on the Knavesmire. Check out Dave Stevos’ 2024 Newmarket & York Saturday preview below.

1.15 Newmarket – Darley Stakes (Group 3)

A tricky start to the day. Savvy Victory is a horse I like and at his best he’d have a chance here but his last three runs are off-putting. Spirit Dancer has a huge chance on the figures but he lacks a recent run and might need this. To be honest, this race will likely go to one of the shorter priced horses and I am finding it difficult to make a strong case for any of the outsiders. On a busy day there will be better bets elsewhere. No bet.

2024 Newmarket & York Saturday Tip: No bet

1.30 York – Rockingham Stakes (Listed)

I had written up a preview for my personal blog tipping Pearl of Windsor for the Cornwallis at Newmarket on Friday. Ten minutes before I posted it, she was taken out, and she ‘rocks’ up here instead (please excuse the terrible pun).

One of my angles for tipping her for that race was her form over 5f but on reflection, she looks well worth another shot over 6f on her run at Ayr last time. She was a step slow away in that Listed contest and she found things happening a bit too quickly for her in the first few furlongs.

However, she picked up really well in the last 100 yards and she flew home. She finished just 2l behind the 97 rated third placed horse and 1.25l behind the now 94 rated King Of Light. To my eye, it looked like she had plenty of petrol left in the tank at the line and she should have learnt plenty from that first run in pattern company.

Underestimated

I think a mark of 85 may underestimate this filly’s ability. She showed a huge amount of promise when fourth in a maiden over 6f on the July course at Newmarket on debut when beaten 3l into fourth by Magic Mild. That winner is now rated 95 and has been placed in a Group 3. The third won a novice on her next start and the fifth, Miss Fascinator, is now rated 99 and has also been placed in a G3.

The form of her two wins over 5f isn’t quite as strong but she could do no more than beat what was in front of her. In my opinion, this is at least a mid-90s filly and if I am right, she doesn’t have much to find to get into the places here. Soft ground is an unknown for the daughter of Pinatubo but she handled good to soft on her debut so hopefully, she’ll be fine. At odds of 20/1, back Pearl Of Windsor e/w.

2024 Newmarket & York Saturday Tip: Pearl Of Windsor e/w @ 20/1 NAP

1.50 Newmarket – Zetland Stakes (Group 3)

Just seven runners here but with a few firms paying three places e/w, I am going to take a chance on the rag, The Green Mile. Trained by the Crisfords, Tom Marquand takes the ride and he is 3/10 with four top 4s when riding for this yard and he is 5/27 with 8 top 44s when riding for this owner, who also runs Green Storm.

That colt is a shorter price on the back of an easy maiden win at Yarmouth but I prefer The Green Mile. He made his debut in a 1m maiden at Bath in early September and while he was a touch green, the further he went the better he looked. On his second start, in a conditions race on heavy at Epsom (8f), he shaped with promise in third despite again showing signs of inexperience and I think this more conventional track will show him in a better light.

He’s by Waldgeist, an old friend of the blog, and his half-brother has won over hurdles so this step up in trip should suit and he has already shown he handles a bit of cut. This doesn’t look the strongest of G3s so at odds of 25/1, The Green Mile is worth chancing e/w for small stakes.

2024 Newmarket & York Saturday Tip: The Green Mile e/w @ 25/1 (3 places)

2.05 York – Coral Handicap (Class 2)

I strongly fancied Paddy The Squire to run a massive race in the Cambridgeshire two weeks ago. Unfortunately, he turned out to be drawn on the wrong side and I think another possible reason for his below-par display was the fact that he was having his first run in such a massive field.

Now, he is back in calmer waters and he goes back up to his last winning trip of 10f. He likes soft ground and with William Carver’s 3lb claim he is effectively 2lb lower than when beat a short head Hamilton back in August. I have no doubt that this son of Golden Horn is capable of landing a nice handicap pot off his current mark, so at odds of 18/1, back Paddy The Squire e/w.

2024 Newmarket & York Saturday Tip: Paddy The Squire e/w @ 18/1 (4 places) NB

2.25 Newmarket – Autumn Stakes (Group 3)

Just six runners and none bigger than 12/1. An easy race to swerve. No bet.

2024 Newmarket & York Saturday Tip: No bet

2.40 York – Coral Sprint Trophy Handicap (Heritage)

Eleven of the last twelve winners of this sprint have come from single figure draws. Cases can be made for quite a few of the lower drawn horses but the one that looks a massive price to me at odds of 40/1 is The Green Man.

Trained by Joseph Parr, this 5yo has been given a right chance by the handicapper. Three runs ago he was racing off 94 at Doncaster, now he is rated 86. That is the same mark he was running off when winning easily over C&D in June of last year. That was admittedly a weaker event than this one but a month later he went down by 1.25l in a Class 2 handicap here off 95.

The ground is a concern for this son of Acclamation but he didn’t run too badly on soft on his first run of this season at Ascot off 91 last month. Since then he has had a spin on the all-weather and given his C&D form, I am hoping Joseph Parr has had this race in mind for him. Because of the ground, I’ll be keeping stakes modest but at odds of 40/1, hopefully The Green Man can find his way into the first five.

2024 Newmarket & York Saturday Tip: The Green Man e/w @ 40/1 (5 places)

3.00 Newmarket – Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1)

Just six runners. Three from Ballydoyle, two from Godolphin and Seagulls Eleven, who we landed the place money with at the Curragh last time. I would love to see him upset the big boys but there’s no extra places on offer here and The Lion In Winter will probably be hard to beat. No bet.

2024 Newmarket & York Saturday Tip: No Bet

3.40 Newmarket – Cesarewitch Handicap (Heritage)

The Mullins clan have won four of the last six renewals of this race. Willie won it three times between 2018-2020 and then Emmet took it last year with The Shunter. He’s one of two runners for Emmet this year but he’s 5lb higher and eleven years old and Jacovec Cavern looks the more likely of his two.

They are all short enough in the betting though and in a race like this, we may as well have a go with one at much bigger odds. The one I eventually came down on is Bashful Boy for David Pipe with Josephine Gordon in the plate.

This son of Magician is a half-decent performer over hurdles. His best performance in that sphere was a 10l win off 117 in July of last year but the run that makes him interesting here was his fine fourth in this race in 2023, beaten just 3.5l for the win behind The Shunter.

That effort came off 86 and he is now 2lb lower. He’s been running over hurdles mostly since, poorly it must be said, and there wasn’t a lot to take from his only flat start since when beaten 13l at Sandown in June (1m6f soft). My hope is that David Pipe targeted this race as soon last year’s finished because this race is probably the only chance this horse will have of ever landing a huge pot.

He most definitely isn’t one for maximum stakes but we know he handles an ease, he has run well over C&D off a higher mark and he’s not too badly drawn in stall 13. David Pipe’s Dad Martin won this in 2000 and 2002, hopefully Bashful Boy can help David to follow in his footsteps at odds of 50/1.

2024 Newmarket & York Saturday Tip: Bashful Boy e/w @ 50/1 (6 places)

-DaveStevos