2024 NFL GW17 Regular Season Picks

Jan Keys is sitting on a 59-63 record after the Xmas fixtures and he is aiming to get back in front before the regular season ends. Check out Jan’s 2024 NFL GW17 Regular Season preview and picks below.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (9-6) @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (3-12)

VEGAS LINE: L.A. CHARGERS -4.5; TOTAL POINTS 42

JAN KEYS RATINGS: L.A. CHARGERS -2.6; TOTAL POINTS 45.9

LAST WEEK

BUFFALO 24 NEW ENGLAND 21

LA CHARGERS 34 DENVER 27

The New England Patriots have nothing but pride to play for and last week they had an impressive performance in Buffalo, losing narrowly. New England have outscored their opponents on yardage in their last 3 matches and lost. They’re a much better team than the results suggest.

LA Chargers are seeded 6th of 7 in the AFC Play Off race so this is an important match for them. They just got home in their big Divisional match versus Denver and they know they are nearly in the playoffs. Although I usually back teams who need to win, here I’m going for a team playing their best football of their season.

2024 NFL GW17 Regular Season Pick: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +4.5 POINTS

DENVER BRONCOS (9-6) @ CINCINNATI BENGALS (7-8)

VEGAS LINE: CINCINNATI -3.5; TOTAL POINTS 49

JAN KEYS RATINGS: CINCINNATI -6; TOTAL POINTS 52.4

LAST WEEK

CINCINNATI 24 CLEVELAND 6

LA CHARGERS 34 DENVER 27

Although Cincinnati won last week reasonably convincingly, their opponents were missing key players and the scoreline flattered the Bengals.

Denver are currently in 7th place in the AFC Play Off race and know a win secures a playoff spot and with Kansas coming up next week, that makes this match a big one. I’m not sure how this game is going to go so I best leave it alone.

2024 NFL GW17 Regular Season Pick: No Bet

WEEK 17 SUNDAY MATCHES

ARIZONA CARDINALS (7-8) @ LOS ANGELES RAMS (9-6)

VEGAS LINE: LA RAMS -6.5; TOTAL POINTS 48

JAN KEYS RATINGS: LA RAMS -5.5; TOTAL POINTS 44.5

LAST WEEK

NY JETS 9 LA RAMS 19

CAROLINA 36 ARIZONA 30

The LA Rams sit top of the NFC West in what has been a topsy turvy Division all season. The Rams have won three on the trot and a win here secures third spot in the NFC playoffs. Rams were a bit fortunate last week in New York and Matthew Stafford struggles to be a top QB.

Arizona were top of the NFC West coming into the home straight but four defeats in five matches have sunk the Cardinals. They have had many must win matches and have disappointed on too many occasions. The pressure is now off and the Rams are nothing special. Also, the Cardinals beat the Rams in Week Two 41-10 and that gives me a sneaky suspicion that Arizona can beat the spread.

2024 NFL GW17 Regular Season Pick: ARIZONA CARDINALS + 6.5 POINTS

NEW YORK JETS (4-11) @ BUFFALO BILLS (12-3)

VEGAS LINE: BUFFALO -8.; TOTAL POINTS 46.5

JAN KEYS RATINGS: BUFFALO -12.3; TOTAL POINTS 52.1

LAST WEEK

BUFFALO 24 NEW ENGLAND 21

NY JETS 9 LA RAMS 19

Buffalo look all set for a Number 2 Seeding in the AFC playoffs. Like last week, a win will do and players not getting injured is important. Last week they were 14 point favourites and struggled to win the match, so this line is a little bit cautious.

The NY Jets are playing for pride only but their offense is hitting good yardage. I have a feeling the Jets will play well and while I expect them to lose, the value is the Jets with the points at this stage of the season.

2024 NFL GW17 Regular Season Pick: NEW YORK JETS +8.5 POINTS

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (7-8) @ NEW YORK GIANTS (2-13)

VEGAS LINE: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -8.5; TOTAL POINTS 40

JAN KEYS RATINGS: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -4.7; TOTAL POINTS 42.5

LAST WEEK

ATLANTA 34 NY GIANTS 7

INDIANAPOLIS 38 TENNESSEE 30

Ten straight defeats for the New York Giants and no light at the end of the tunnel. QB Drew Lock continues to suck and the Giants don’t have a rushing game. This is the worse team in the league by a long way.

Indianapolis small hopes of making the playoffs could be gone before this game kicks off. Either way it’s hard not to see them winning this match. I expect them to cover but the lack of incentive makes it harder.

2024 NFL GW17 Regular Season Pick: No Bet

TENNESSEE TITANS (3-12) @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (3-12)

VEGAS LINE: JACKSONVILLE -1; TOTAL POINTS 40

JAN KEYS RATINGS: JACKSONVILLE -5.5; TOTAL POINTS 46.2

LAST WEEK

LAS VEGAS 19 JACKSONVILLE 14

INDIANAPOLIS 38 TENNESSEE 30

This is a match best left alone with both sides sitting at 3-12 records in a poor AFC South. The losers may end up with a strong draft pick. Jacksonville losing to Las Vegas takes some doing.

Tennessee will continue with Mason Rudolph at QB even though Will Levis is fit. There’s not too much between them. No bet.

2024 NFL GW17 Regular Season Pick: No Bet

CAROLINA PANTHERS (4-11) @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (8-7)

VEGAS LINE: TAMPA BAY -8.5; TOTAL POINTS 48

JAN KEYS RATINGS: TAMPA BAY -9.8; TOTAL POINTS 50

LAST WEEK

DALLAS 26 TAMPA BAY 24

CAROLINA 36 ARIZONA 30

Tampa Bay are half a match behind Atlanta in the race for the NFC South and with 2 matches to go this is a must win match. With Atlanta travelling to Washington later in the day, it means Tampa must put the pressure on.

Even with 4 wins from 15 matches the Carolina Panthers can be proud of the improvement they have made since week two of the season when they were at rock bottom. Tonight’s match may be a step too far due to Tampa’s must win situation. The line is high enough to not pick a selection.

2024 NFL GW17 Regular Season Pick: NO bet

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (3-12) @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (5-10)

VEGAS LINE: LAS VEGAS -1; TOTAL POINTS 37.5

JAN KEYS RATINGS: NEW ORLEANS -3; TOTAL POINTS 40

LAST WEEK

GREEN BAY 34 NEW ORLEANS 0

LAS VEGAS 19 JACKSONVILLE 14

Las Vegas are favourites for this match due to how bad New Orleans are. Losing 34-0 to any team is just embarrassing so I expect some positive reaction from the Saints.

Las Vegas broke a ten match losing streak last weekend against another poor side. Aidan O’Connell is likely to start at QB.

New Orleans Saints’ season has hit the buffers and will be hoping for QB Derek Carr to return to the helm. At this time I don’t have the news on who is QB, Carr or Rattler. If Carr is then I would take the Saints, if Rattler then I would take the Raiders.

2024 NFL GW17 Regular Season Pick: NO Bet

MIAMI DOLPHINS (7-8) @ CLEVELAND BROWNS (3-12)

VEGAS LINE:  MIAMI -6.5; TOTAL POINTS 40.5

JAN KEYS RATINGS: MIAMI -3.8; TOTAL POINTS 44.3

LAST WEEK

CINCINNATI 24 CLEVELAND 6

MIAMI 29 SAN FRANCISCO 17

The Cleveland Browns have had a disappointing season and are now on their third QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson. I’m not sure of the full team news yet on this festive week. Cleveland are on a four match losing streak and although this match isn’t important to either teams’ progress, I’m sure the Browns would like to finish with a home win.

Miami Dolphin are 9th in the seven team playoff picture and two games back with two to go, so they are highly unlikely to receive a spot. I would expect the Dolphins to win this match but I’m not sure QB Tua Tagovaliova is fully fit, so this is another match I will stay away from.

2024 NFL GW17 Regular Season Pick: NO Bet

GREEN BAY PACKERS (11-4) @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS (13-2)

VEGAS LINE: GREEN BAY -1; TOTAL POINTS 49

JAN KEYS RATINGS: GREEN BAY -1; TOTAL POINTS 46.3

LAST WEEK

SEATTLE 24 MINNESOTA 27

GREEN BAY 34 NEW ORLEANS 0

Minnesota know that 2 wins will take them to Number One seed in the NFC. Unfortunately for them they have two hard fixtures and will probably end up Number Five. Minnesota just got home last weekend in Seattle and will need to improve to beat the Packers.

Green Bay have scored 30+ in all of their last 5 matches and are putting in some seriously good performances. They are seeded 6 in the playoffs and can only move up or down one spot. With this team in great shape, they can take it easy over the next two weeks.

Although I feel the Packers are a better team, I feel incentive for the Vikings to try take the Number One spot makes them the selection here.

2024 NFL GW17 Regular Season Pick: MINNESOTA +1 POINT

ATLANTA FALCONS (8-7) @ WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (10-5)

VEGAS LINE: WASHINGTON -4; TOTAL POINTS 47.5  

JAN KEYS RATINGS: WASHINGTON -4.3; TOTAL POINTS 47.9

LAST WEEK

WASHINGTON  36 PHILADELPHIA 33

ATLANTA 34 NY GIANTS 7

With the playoff picture looking clearer before these two meet it’s hard to know who needs the win more. Washington sit comfortably in seventh whilst Atlanta are half a game ahead of Tampa Bay.

Washington had a big win last week over Philadelphia to issue a statement that they are a good side in the making. The Commanders will have a tough playoff schedule if they make it but this could be a stepping stone to bigger things next season.

Atlanta brushed aside the hapless New York Giants after dropping QB Kirk Cousins for Rookie QB Michael Penix Jr, who retains his place. If this match had equal meaning then I would pick the Commanders to cover but it will have unequal meaning. No Bet.

2024 NFL GW17 Regular Season Pick: NO Bet

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-JanKeys