2024 NFL GW18 Regular Season Picks

Jan Keys has clawed back some ground in his recent previews and he is now sitting on a 63-65 record for the season. He is hoping to get above the 0.500 mark on the final weekend of the regular season. Check out Jan’s 2024 NFL GW18 Regular Season preview and picks below.

Saturday’s Matches

CLEVELAND BROWNS (3-13) @ BALTIMORE RAVENS (11-5)

VEGAS LINE: BALTIMORE -18; TOTAL POINTS 41.5

JAN KEYS RATINGS: BALTIMORE -18.7; TOTAL POINTS 46.7

LAST WEEK’S MATCHES

HOUSTON 2 BALTIMORE 31

CLEVELAND 3 MIAMI 20

At first look Baltimore -18 might seem high especially as the playoffs beckon. Baltimore need a win to clinch the Divisional Title and will be seeded 3 in the AFC if they do. The Ravens were impressive against Houston and this should be a walk in the park. If Baltimore go clear early, they may shuffle the pack and ease down which could be a concern taking the -18 points start.

Cleveland, who actually beat Baltimore earlier in the season 29-24, have been on a downward spiral ever since. Uninspired Back Up QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson is likely to start the match and may share the QB load with Bailey Zappe. Jameis Winston is still out with a shoulder injury and unlikely to play. It’s hard to see Cleveland challenging the Ravens in the match.

The weather is going to be freezing and it’s expected to be very windy and it’s hard to see this match racking up a high total of points. With Cleveland unlikely to score double figures with cold weather and a weak Quarterback, plus the likelihood that Baltimore might ease up when clear, the unders looks the way to go in the total points market.

2024 NFL GW18 REGULAR SEASON PICK: TOTAL POINTS UNDER 41.5 POINTS

CINCINNATI BENGALS (8-8) @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS (10-6)

VEGAS LINE: CINCINNATI -1.5; TOTAL POINTS 48.5

JAN KEYS RATINGS: CINCINNATI -2.1; TOTAL POINTS 52.1

LAST WEEK’S MATCHES

PITTSBURGH 10 KANSAS CITY 29

CINCINNATI 30 DENVER 24

By the time this match kicks off Baltimore will probably be AFC North Champions. However, if Baltimore lose then a win for Pittsburgh would see them as the winners. The Steelers are heading for the playoffs but a win would mean a trip to Houston (favourable) and a loss may see them visiting Baltimore.

Cincinnati are on a 4 match winning streak and are ninth in the playoff place order (7 Qualify). To reach the playoffs they have to beat Pittsburgh and they also need losses for Denver (vs Kansas) and Miami (at N.Y. Jets).

Pittsburgh have lost their last three matches against three of the NFL’s best teams. Obviously, it was a big test of their credentials and they came up short. They have a mostly fit team entering the home straight and they will be hoping to find some form heading into the post-season.

Although Cincinnati are unlikely to make the playoffs, QB Joe Burrows and WR Ja’Marr Chase are at the peak of this season’s NFL numbers. They will both want to finish the season with a big statement. Cincinnati have RB Chase Brown and WR Tee Higgins as questionable. Both are big players in this explosive offense and if they are out, they would be major losses.

This match looks like a high scoring affair with both teams going for the win but I’m not sure who will get the W. No bet.

2024 NFL GW18 REGULAR SEASON PICK: No Bet

Sunday’s Matches

CAROLINA PANTHERS (4-12) @ ATLANTA FALCONS (8-8)

Vegas Line: Atlanta -8; Total Points 48

Jan Keys Ratings: Atlanta -9.4 Total Points 45.9

LAST WEEK

WASHINGTON 30 ATLANTA 24

TAMPA BAY 48 CAROLINA 14

Atlanta come into the final game of the season half a game behind Tampa Bay and if they are honest, they have little chance of making the playoffs. They will just have to win their match and hope for an unlikely favour from the Saints.

Atlanta benched QB Kirk Cousins two weeks ago and have introduced Rookie QB Michael Penix Jr to their team. So far so good. He has performed well and has a bright future for the Falcons.

Carolina suffered a battering in Tampa last week as their season is whimpering out. They did pick up a bit of form but it’s been small improvement. They also come into this match with multiple players carrying injuries. Hopefully a good draft can improve this team.

2024 NFL GW18 REGULAR SEASON PICK: ATLANTA FALCONS -8 POINTS

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (11-5) @ DALLAS COWBOYS (7-9)

Vegas Line: Washington -5.5; Total Points 44

Jan Keys Ratings: Washington -3.4; Total Points 50.7

LAST WEEK

WASHINGTON 30 ATLANTA 24

PHILADELPHIA 41 DALLAS 7

Washington are heading for the playoffs and are currently seeded sixth, A win here secures an away day at L.A. Rams where they would have a decent chance of progressing. A loss in Dallas and then it’s off to Philadelphia where they would be 10 point underdogs.

Dallas’ season has long gone. Before QB Dak Prescott was injured the Cowboys were 3-5, with backup QB Cooper Rush they are 4-4, although the white flag was thrown in by this franchise a long time ago. With their season over, they may well rest QB Cooper Rush for this finale and introduce another backup QB.

It’s hard to see anything but a Washington win here as they head for the playoffs.

2024 NFL GW18 REGULAR SEASON PICK: WASHINGTON COMMANDERS -5.5 POINTS

CHICAGO BEARS (4-12) @ GREEN BAY PACKERS (11-5)

Vegas Line: Green Bay -10; Total Points 41.5

Jan Keys Ratings: Green Bay -14; Total Points 45.5

LAST WEEK

MINNESOTA 27 GREEN BAY 25

CHICAGO 3 SEATTLE 6

Green Bay are locked into playoff Spot No. 7 (away to Philadelphia). They can move up one place with a win and a Washington loss (away to LA Rams) which would be considered favourable. Both the Green Bay and Washington matches kick off the same time so they will both be keeping an eye on how the results are going in-play.

Chicago’s season went from 4-4 to 4-12. In their last four matches, the Bears have been awful. It would be fair to say superstar first round pick QB Caleb Williams has struggled at times to get himself and his offense motivated. I think they have pride at stake and have had some close matches against divisional rivals, so I will be taking them with ten points here.

2024 NFL GW18 REGULAR SEASON PICK: CHICAGO BEARS +10 POINTS

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (4-12) @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (7-9)

Vegas Line: Indianapolis -5; Total Points 44.5

Jan Keys Ratings: Indianapolis -3; Total Points 43.9

This match is between two teams whose seasons are over. Both teams in recent weeks have played their understudy QBs and it’s a match with too many questionable players. QB Richardson might be back for the Colts and with Jacksonville using QB Mac Jones it would sway the chances in the Colts direction. Not enough to warrant a wager, though.

2024 NFL GW18 REGULAR SEASON PICK: No Bet

BUFFALO BILLS (13-3) @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (3-13)

Vegas Line: Buffalo -2.5; Total Points 38

Jan Keys Ratings: Buffalo -11.1; Total Points 51.8

LAST WEEK

NEW ENGLAND 7 LA CHARGERS 40

BUFFALO 40 N.Y. JETS 14

The Buffalo Bills are seeded 2 in the AFC playoffs. Win or lose this match, this will not change. Although QB Josh Allen will start for the Bills, he is likely to drop out in the first quarter and Mitchell Trubisky will take the helm. Buffalo will also rest many of their first team with reserve players hoping to perform and stake a claim for a starting spot in the post season.

Although Buffalo are resting many key players, New England are currently in the number one Draft Pick position and it would be fair to say they don’t want to win this match. It’s unlikely QB Drake Maye will start. It’s hard to see how New England winning this match and maybe losing their no.1 pick.

2024 NFL GW18 REGULAR SEASON PICK: BUFFALO BILLS -2.5 POINTS

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (5-11) @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (9-7)

Vegas Line: Tampa Bay -14; Total Points 43.5

Jan Keys Ratings: Tampa Bay -12.3; Total Points 45.2

LAST WEEK

Tampa Bay 48 Carolina 14

New Orleans 10 Las Vegas 25

Tampa Bay need to win to secure the NFC South and a home tie in the playoffs. A loss coupled with an Atlanta win would see them eliminated from the playoffs. Tampa’s offense is in good form and will be taking no chances about securing a tough playoff tie against the losers of the Detroit/Minnesota match.

New Orleans have had a rough last two matches losing 34-0 to Green Bay and then 25-10 to Las Vegas. It is really poor form. They will be hoping QB Derek Carr returns for this season ending match, but even if he does, it’s hard to see the Saints getting close in this one.

2024 NFL GW18 REGULAR SEASON PICK: No bet

NEW YORK GIANTS (3-13) @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (13-3)

Vegas Line: Philadelphia -2.5; Total Points 37.5

Jan Keys Ratings: Philadelphia -20; Total Points 43.4

LAST WEEK

Philadelphia 41 Dallas 7

New York Giants 45 Indianapolis 33

The line on the match speaks volumes here. Philadelphia are seeded second in the NFC playoffs and win or lose here, it remains the same. Philadelphia will play their second or third string players in this fixture and will rest all their starters.

The New York Giants winning last week has moved them down to fourth in the Draft Pick order so there’s no reason now to ease up on their final match of the season. As bad as the Giants are, I’m confident they can beat a second string Eagles team.

2024 NFL GW18 REGULAR SEASON PICK: NEW YORK GIANTS +2.5 POINTS

HOUSTON TEXANS (9-7) @ TENNESSEE TITANS (3-13)

Vegas Line: Tennessee -1; Total Points 37.5

Jan Keys Ratings: Houston -3.8; Total Points 47.7

LAST WEEK

HOUSTON 2 BALTIMORE 31

JACKSONVILLE 20 TENNESSEE 13

The Houston Texans are seeded fourth in the AFC and cannot move from that position. It’s believed Houston will start many first teamers to try to get some spirit back into the side following their Christmas Day debacle, but surely they won’t want to risk too many injuries.

Tennessee are seeded 3rd in the draft pick with three season wins alongside New England and Cleveland. So, losing this match wouldn’t be a disaster. I’m not sure how much either team will be giving their all and I am happy to sit this one out.

2024 NFL GW18 REGULAR SEASON PICK: No Bet

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (15-1) @ DENVER BRONCOS (9-7)

Vegas Line: Denver -10.5 Total Points 40.5

Jan Keys Ratings: Kansas -1 Total Points 45.8

LAST WEEK

CINCINNATI 30 DENVER 24

PITTSBURGH 10 KANSAS CITY 29

Denver need a win to secure their first playoff since 2015 and will feel this is the best time to play Kansas City. Denver rookie QB Bo Nix has had a good first season and will be under pressure to deliver in Mile High Stadium.

Kansas City are seeded one in the AFC and have a bye next week, so most of their first teamers will not have a match for three weeks. QB Patrick Mahomes is rested, leaving Carson Wentz to lead a makeshift offence.

KC haven’t lost many matches over the last three seasons and really this shouldn’t go down as a loss, but they will probably lose this. Again, the line is set high at 10.5 but it’s hard not to see an all-out Denver side not covering and a trip next week to Buffalo awaits them.

2024 NFL GW18 REGULAR SEASON PICK: No Bet

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (6-10) @ ARIZONA CARDINALS (7-9)

Vegas Line: Arizona -4.5; Total Points 43

Jan Keys Ratings: Arizona -3 Total Points 44

LAST WEEK

LA RAMS 13 ARIZONA 9

SAN FRANCISCO 34 DETROIT 40

Arizona’s season went from a 6-4 to a 7-9 in the final weeks and their chances of winning the NFC West evaporated. They have recently lost RB James Conner, who was putting together a very good season. It may help that this game is a nothing to play for match.

San Francisco played well last week against Detroit in what has been an injury hit season for this classy team. It looks like QB Brock Purdy will miss this non-event but backup QB and former Cardinal Josh Dobbs isn’t a bad player to come in.

2024 NFL GW18 REGULAR SEASON PICK: SAN FRANCISCO + 4.5 POINTS

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (9-7) @ LOS ANGELES RAMS (10-6)

Vegas Line: Seattle -6.5; Total Points 38.5

Jan Keys Ratings: LA Rams -3.4; Total Points 43.8

LAST WEEK

LA RAMS 13 ARIZONA 9

CHICAGO 3 SEATTLE 6

Both teams were involved in low scoring matches last week, the result being the Rams made the playoffs and the Seahawks were eliminated. The L.A. Rams are currently seeded third in the playoffs but a defeat here is likely to give them a tougher playoff match, so for me it would be important for them to try to win this match. QB Matthew Stafford and many starters will be rested and Jimmy Garoppolo comes in at QB.

Seattle will be disappointed to mis out of the playoffs despite a win in last week’s borefest in Chicago. They would still like to finish the season with 10 wins which would amount to small progress. This match does feel like one of those matches neither side wants to play. No Bet

2024 NFL GW18 REGULAR SEASON PICK: No Bet

MIAMI DOLPHINS (8-8) @ NEW YORK JETS (4-12)

Vegas Line: NY Jets -1; Total Points 39.5

Jan Keys Ratings: Miami -3.4; Total Points 46.2

LAST WEEK

BUFFALO 40 N.Y. JETS 14

CLEVELAND 3 MIAMI 20

Miami have a hope of a playoff spot if Denver lose to Kansas and if they can beat the Jets. It’s a slim hope but stranger things have happened. Although Miami will be score watching from Denver, they come into this match without QB Tua Tagovailoa and continue with Tyler Huntley. He had a good game in last week’s win, but he is no Tagovailoa.

The N.Y. Jets’ 41 year old QB Aaron Rodgers starts again in what could be his last match for the Jets. With the Jets missing a bit of sparkle it will be all change this summer. Rodgers has 1 year left on his contract but may not be in New York next season.

This is a tricky one to call, especially as the Denver score could change Miami’s match motivation.

2024 NFL GW18 REGULAR SEASON PICK: No Bet

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (10-6) @ LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (4-12)

Vegas Line: LA Chargers -4.5 Total Points 41.5

Jan Keys Ratings: LA Chargers -4.3 Total Points 43.7

LAST WEEK

NEW ORLEANS 10 LAS VEGAS 25

NEW ENGLAND 7 LA CHARGERS 40

This match line will change after Saturday’s game between Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati.

If Pittsburgh win then the LA Chargers will rest players and you should take Las Vegas.

If Cincinnati win then the LA Chargers will be all out to win this match to move up a place in the playoffs for a favourable match.

2024 NFL GW18 REGULAR SEASON PICK: No Bet

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (14-2) @ DETROIT LIONS (14-2)

Vegas Line: Detroit -2.5 Total Points 56

Jan Keys Ratings: Detroit -6 Total Points 51.2

LAST WEEK

SAN FRANCISCO 34 DETROIT 40

MINNESOTA 27 GREEN BAY 25

This is the match of the weekend and a massive game for both teams.

The winner is seeded one in the NFC Playoffs and receives a bye next week. The loser will be seeded five and will struggle to make the Superbowl.

It’s incredible that two teams go into the last game of the regular season with 14-2 records coming from the same Division. At least we know both teams will be trying their hardest for this final regular season match.

Detroit have been pretty good all season and for me are the better of these two teams. Minnesota have ridden their luck at times to be 14-2 and have had to work harder at times to get a lot of close wins.

The Vegas Line would make you think that they are of the same ability but Detroit are a better team and they have to be my final selection of the regular season. Hopefully we can end it with a winner.

2024 NFL GW18 REGULAR SEASON PICK: DETROIT LIONS -2.5 POINTS

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-JanKeys