2024 NFL Regular Season GW1 Picks

We went agonisingly close to landing our first winner on Thursday night. Unfortunately, we missed our under 46 Total Points bet by two Total Points as the Chiefs beat the Ravens 27-20 in the season opener. Hopefully we can get a winner on the board with my 2024 NFL Regular Season GW1 picks.

Last season went well for us and I can see no reason why we can’t reap even more rewards with our NFL and College Football bets this year. In Week One I’ll be working off two sets of ratings; last season’s and this season’s ratings adjusted for roster changes and draft picks.

Below you can see the lines for all this weekend’s matches and I like a total of five bets for GW1.

PITTSBURGH @ ATLANTA – Atalanta -3; Total Points 42

Based on the ratings I have no selection on this match. No bet.

ARIZONA @ BUFFALO – Buffalo -6; Total Points 48

On last season’s ratings I would have expected Buffalo to easily cover the 6 point spread. However, I’m not sure Buffalo are improving and Arizona got slightly better as the season went on last year. If I had to make a selection it would be Buffalo but I’m going to go with no bet.

TENNESSEE @ CHICAGO – Chicago -3.5; Total Points 44.5 

A new era for the Chicago Bears with their No.1 Draft Pick, Quarterback Caleb Williams, taking Centre Stage. Expectations and ticket prices are high and based on how bad the Titans were at the end of last season, for me this is one of the steals of the weekend.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW1 SELECTION: CHICAGO BEARS -3.5 points @ 2.00

NEW ENGLAND @ CINCINNATI – Cincinnati -9; Total Points 40

This is a match where based on the end of last season’s form, I would back New England. However, the Patriots are still a bad side whereas Cincinnati are a team who are improving with playoff expectations. I will therefore leave this match alone.

HOUSTON @ INDIANAPOLIS – Houston -2.5; Total Points 49

You would have thought Houston’s end of season form would give them a much higher rating than Indianapolis but they only finished the season 1 point higher. Houston have an exciting Quarterback who could make the difference for them in their quest to reach the Championship match. This is a tough opening fixture for them and it should be a close match. No bet.

JACKSONVILLE @ MIAMI – Miami -3.5; Total Points 49.5

Two teams that aren’t bad but both will struggle to make the playoffs. If I had to bet then I would back the Dolphins but -3.5 is a terrible number. I really don’t fancy the Jaguars to win the match. Maybe Jacksonville +3.5 will tempt some bettors but not me on this occasion. No bet.

CAROLINA @ NEW ORLEANS – New Orleans -4; Total Points 41.5

My last season ratings have New Orleans clear in this match. Carolina are one of the rank outsiders for The Superbowl with a team that is very limited. New Orleans should simply be too good for the Panthers.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW1 SELECTION: NEW ORLEANS -4 points @ 2.05

MINNESOTA @ N.Y. GIANTS – Minnesota -1; Total Points 41

Neither of these two teams are likely to reach the playoffs. I don’t have much confidence in either of these outfits. One of them will win, but I’m staying out of this match up. My last season ratings agree with the line. No Selection.

LAS VEGAS @ L.A. CHARGERS – Chargers -3; Total Points 40

A very interesting matchup. My last season rating would favour Las Vegas by 1 point. However, Betfair’s outright odds would make the Chargers 5 point favourites. Can’t say I have a big opinion on this 3 point line. No Selection.

DENVER @ SEATTLE – Seattle -6; Total Points 42 

On last season’s form I would’ve taken the Broncos +6 all day. Denver also went 3-0 in pre-season whilst blooding in Rookie Quarterback Bo Nix. Seattle have a new coach and may take a while settling into their rhythm. I’m not expecting too much from either of these teams this season but I’m tempted with a +6 advantage for Denver in what I think will be a close match.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW1 SELECTION: DENVER +6 points @ 1.95

DALLAS @ CLEVELAND – Cleveland -2.5; Total Points 40.5

Sometimes lines are easy to call and for me this is one of them. Dallas may be shorter odds in the outright market but that’s because their Division is weaker. Both sides should be challenging for the playoffs and this could be a good game to watch, but I really can’t pick the result of this one. No bet.

WASHINGTON @ TAMPA BAY – Tampa -3; Total Points 43.5

Last season’s ratings make Tampa Bay a shoo-in for this match up. This is the one line that I really don’t get. Tampa Bay won their Division and Washington were 31st out of 32 teams. I can only see the Bucs cruising to victory here.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW1 SELECTION: TAMPA BAY -3 points @ 1.81

L.A. RAMS @ DETROIT – Detroit -3.5; Total Points 51

If you had asked me at the end of last season which one of these two are the better team, I would have said the Rams. Detroit beat The Rams in the Wild Card match 24-23, a match, in my opinion, in which the Rams were the better team. The line that day was the Lions -3. I’m expecting another close affair and was almost tempted to back the Rams, but I will leave this match alone. No bet.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

N.Y. JETS @ SAN FRANCISCO – San Francisco -4; Total Points 43.5

This is another line that I can’t fathom. With home advantage being 3 total points, the linemakers are saying the Jets are only one point behind the 49ers. Outright odds for S.F. are 7.2 and NYJ are 23.0. This is a big step up in class for the Jets and although it is Week One, the 49ers should be far too good for them.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW1 SELECTION: SAN FRANCISCO -4 @ 1.86

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-JanKeys