2024 NFL Regular Season GW10

Another Thursday Night Football blank for Jan Keys as both his prop bets outperformed his expectations. Now, our record for this regular season stands at 26-28, hopefully we can get back in front this weekend. Check out Jan’s 2024 NFL Regular Season GW10 preview and picks below.

NEW YORK GIANTS (2-7) @ CAROLINA PANTHERS (2-7) (MUNICH)

Vegas Line: New York Giants -6.5; Total Points 40.5

My Rating: New York Giants -4.7; Total Points 42.7

This match is being played in The Allianz Arena in Munich, Famous for hosting the 2012 Champions League Final. The New York Giants come into this match after four straight defeats but haven’t played too badly the last two matches. They just lost to much better teams. They will be expected to control this match up.

Carolina somehow scraped a 23-22 win last week against New Orleans, although the yardage figures didn’t hold the Panthers in good stead, losing 427–246 but it’s the result that count. Carolina traded wide receiver Johnathan Mingo last week but he wasn’t hitting big numbers so he’s not a great loss.

With the line set at 6.5 it’s hard to take either side. No bet.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW10 Pick: NO BET

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (2-7) @ CHICAGO BEARS (4-4)

Vegas Line: Chicago -6; Total Points 39.0

My Ratings: Chicago -8.9; Total Points 40.9

New England will consider themselves unlucky last week, losing in Tennessee 20-17. However, the Titans are like the Patriots, just not a very good football team. New England look set to stick with Drake Maye at QB and the Patriots have struggled for yards on offense all season.

The Chicago Bears are 4-0 at Soldier Field so far this season and will be looking to bounce back after a heavy defeat in Arizona last week. They will reflect on what went wrong against the Cardinals and try to rectify their problems. I do believe that the Bears are a lot better than today’s opponents and I feel they can cover the 6 point handicap.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW10 Pick: CHICAGO BEARS -6

BUFFALO BILLS (7-2) @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (4-5)

Vegas Line: Buffalo -4; Total Points 48.5

My Ratings: Buffalo -4.3; Total Points 44.6

After two very comfortable wins, Buffalo just got home last week against their divisional rivals the Miami Dolphins, winning 30-27. Buffalo come into this match with a few injuries which is not a good sign and may want to just win and move on, as they host the Chiefs next week which is a must win for their Conference seeding.

Indianapolis’ matches have all been reasonably close, although they did lose fairly convincingly last week at Minnesota 21-13. The Colts have struggled at QB this season and it’s hard to see them putting in big numbers. They will again rely on RB Jonathan Taylor hitting big rushing numbers. The line seems about right to me.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW10 Pick: NO BET

DENVER BRONCOS (5-4) @ KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (8-0)

Vegas Line: Kansas City -8; Total Points 41.5

My Ratings: Kansas City -11.1; Total Points 41.9

After being blown away by Baltimore last week, all Denver needed was a trip to Kansas. The big question, as always, is how many points do we think the Chiefs can cover. Denver’s offense figures haven’t been that bad under QB Rookie Bo Nix and they will be out to prove they are a better team than last week’s performance.

Kansas City are coming off a short week albeit they did play at home on MNF. Tampa Bay ran them close on Monday but every week KC just know how to get home. Kansas are 2-6 against an 8 point spread this season, which is a worry for favourite bettors and with a trip to Buffalo coming next weekend, I’m going to take the Broncos to cover the point spread.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW10 Pick: DENVER BRONCOS + 8 Points

ATLANTA FALCONS (6-3) @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (2-7)

Vegas Line: Atlanta -4; Total Points 46.5

My Ratings: Atlanta -3.4; Total Points 48.8

Interesting match up here. Atlanta were outscored in terms of yards on offense last week and won and New Orleans had more yards than Carolina and lost. It would also be fair to say Atlanta are still in the hunt for the playoffs and New Orleans’ season has nearly gone. Atlanta (Home) won the Week 4 match up between these two 26-24, with the Saints having more yards (385 – 315).

I see New Orleans having more yards than Atlanta but that doesn’t mean they will win the match. This could go either way so I will favour the home team with the four point advantage.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW10 Pick: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS +4 Points

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (4-4) @ TAMPA BAY BUCANEERS (4-5)

Vegas Line: San Francisco -6.5; Total Points 50.5

My Ratings: San Francisco -5.7; Total Points 53.2

Both teams come into this match knowing it’s still all to play for and a loss would seriously be a dent in their seasons. San Francisco have missed their star wide receiver Christian McCaffrey all season but he could be playing this Sunday which would be a great boost for the 49ers.

Tampa Bay are on a short week after losing to Kansas in Overtime on Monday Night, whereas the 49ers had a Bye week. This match up looks like a high scoring game and I would be tempted by the over points if I was having a bet on that market.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW10 Pick:NO BET

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (6-2) @ WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (7-2)

Vegas Line: Washington -2.5; Total Points 45.5

My Ratings: Washington -1.1; Total Points 44.7

Pittsburgh have the positive of coming off a bye Week for this matchup between two of the surprise teams of the season. It was a bit of a surprise that QB Russell Wilson got the nod in Week 7 but he has undoubtedly improved the Steelers’ offense. With three wins in a row and a Bye Week behind them, it’s hard to oppose this team.

Washington have seen a new owner of the White House this week and he has inherited a very good NFL team, although I doubt if it’s his favourite team. This version of the Commanders are 8 points better in my ratings than the team that finished Week 1. That is some achievement. QB Rookie – Jayden Daniels has to take most of the credit, already looking like Rookie of the Year with great passing and rushing numbers.

This match is a tough call and should be a close match.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW10 Pick: NO BET

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (6-2) @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (2-7)

Vegas Line: Minnesota -5; Total Points 45.5

My Ratings: Minnesota -2.1; Total Points 48.0

Minnesota are another team that have come on leaps and bounds this season, starting with a surprising 5-0 record and beating some very good sides along the way. When their 100% record finally slipped it was to the Detroit Lions 31-29, which has turned out to be no shame at all.

Jacksonville, in contrast to the Vikings, started the season 0-4 and are 2-3 for their last 5 matches. Last week’s 28-23 defeat at Philadelphia flattered them a bit as the yardage figures were 215 – 447 against them.

All logic points to a Vikings victory but my ratings have this as a closer game than what my logic suggests.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW10 Pick: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +5

TENNESSEE TITANS (2-6) @ L.A. CHARGERS (5-3)

Vegas Line: L.A. Chargers -7.5; Total Points 38.0

My Ratings: L.A. Chargers -11.1; Total Points 39.2

There are not many positives to take out of Tennessee Titans’ season, except their offensive yardage has been +400 for the last two matches. However, this offense just doesn’t know how to put points on the board, only once in 8 matches scoring more than 20 points, making it easier for teams to beat them. The L.A. Chargers defense is unlikely to make it easy for Tennessee.

The L.A. Chargers are playing well, with two comfortable wins against poor teams, this week they play another poor team and this match looks like a simple win for them. Minus 7.5 is always a bad number to play, even though they may well cover. I do think the Chargers will win by more than the spread but because of the 7.5 line, I will give this one a miss.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW10 Pick: NO BET

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (6-2) @ DALLAS COWBOYS (3-5)

Vegas Line: Philadelphia -7.0; Total Points 43.5

My Ratings: Philadelphia -6.1; Total Points 46.6

Philadelphia have won their last four games quite comfortably with excellent yard numbers. Their average yards in their last four matches are 389 -214. Philadelphia are definitely heading to the playoffs.

The Dallas Cowboys lost their QB Dak Prescott last week for the season. His replacement Cooper Rush struggled last week in Atlanta when coming on. The Cowboys are on a three match losing streak, albeit against good teams. They are not a bad team but losing Prescott will probably mean the end for their season.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW10 Pick: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -7

NEW YORK JETS (3-6) @ ARIZONA CARDINALS (5-4)

Vegas Line: New York Jets -1.0; Total Points 45.5

My Ratings Arizona -3.8; Total Points 42.8

The New York Jets have had an extra few rest days after a good win against Houston. I’m not the biggest fan of the Jets and QB Aaron Rodgers. Although he may be experienced, he just doesn’t have the big numbers of some of the other good Quarterbacks.

The Arizona Cardinals are on a three game winning streak and know this will be another tough match. This is going to be a close game and although I slightly favour the Cardinals, it’s not enough of an opinion to take a selection.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW10 Pick: NO BET

DETROIT LIONS (7-1) @ HOUSTON TEXANS (6-3)

Vegas Line: Detroit -3.5; Total Points 49.0

My Rating: Detroit -3.4; Total Points 48.3

It was a big win for the Detroit Lions last week at Green Bay and they have another tough match up this week. Detroit are probably the best team in the NFL right now. They are just playing well and it will take a good side to beat them.

Houston made a great start to the season with some good results and thoughts that they were a Top Six team. However, the last few matches they have lost that tag of being a top six team and are now in that second tier of teams. They do have a top QB in C.J. Stroud who last week was sacked 8 times and sackings have been a regular occurrence.

Houston have had an extra few days rest to try to get their season back on track but I am happy to just watch this game. No bet.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW10 Pick: NO BET

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-JanKeys