2024 NFL Regular Season GW11

Jan Keys went 1-1 with his player prop picks on TNF. That leaves him with a 34-32 record so far this season. Check out Jan’s 2024 NFL Regular Season GW11 preview and picks below.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (6-3) @ CHICAGO BEARS (4-5)  

Vegas Line: Green Bay -5.5; Total Points 40.5

My Rating: Green Bay -2.1; Total Points 42.4  

Green Bay will be disappointed with last week’s Home loss against divisional rivals Detroit, losing 24-14 despite posting good yardage figures with a positive 411-261 advantage. QB Jordan Love remains hot and the Packers have every chance of making the Playoffs.

This season was meant to be all about Rookie QB Superstar Caleb Williams and a hopeful Bears team. Last week’s defeat by New England, 19-3 when 6 point favourites, shows you how bad Chicago are. In that match Williams passed for only 69 yards and the Bears only rushed for 73 yards.

Looking at the last two matches, Jordan Love has been sacked zero times, Caleb Williams 15. Plus, Chicago have sacked their offense coach this week. What a mess. Surely another heavy defeat is on the cards for the Bears.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW11 Tip: GREEN BAY PACKERS -5.5 POINTS

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (2-8) @ DETROIT LIONS (8-1)

Vegas Line: Detroit -14; Total Points 47.0

My Ratings: Detroit -13.6; Total Points 48.9

Jacksonville have lost three in a row against good sides in Green Bay, Philadelphia and Minnesota and this will probably be loss number four. With the Jaguars’ starting QB out injured, Mac Jones played last week but he only produced 87 Passing Yards. It’s hard to see Jacksonville scoring many points against the Lions.

The Detroit Lions have won two matches this season by a big margin, at Dallas 47-9 and against Tennessee 52-16, so being two touchdown favourites isn’t a big issue for Detroit. There is a chance Detroit will ease up to protect their players once the game is won, so although Detroit are worthy favourites, the 14 point line is just too high for me. As I doubt the Jaguars will score more than 14 points, I favour Under Total Points line.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW11 Tip: TOTAL POINTS UNDER 47 POINTS

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (7-2) @ TENNESSEE TITANS (2-7)

Vegas Line: Minnesota -5.5; Total Points 40.0

My Ratings: Minnesota -6; Total Points 42.9

Minnesota stayed on track for the playoffs with a 12-7 win in Jacksonville. They scored 4 field goals and threw two Interceptions in the end zone, so silly mistakes cost them an easier win. The Vikings are entering a soft run of games and can still win this division if they have a good run.

Tennessee Titans season is over and they are playing for pride. QB Will Levis gets the dreaded vote of confidence, his figures were okay last week except for being sacked seven times. It’s really hard to see this team having enough confidence to beat Minnesota.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW11 Tip: MINNESOTA -5.5 POINTS

LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (2-7) @ MIAMI DOLPHINS (3-6)

Vegas Line: Miami -7.5; Total Points 44.0

My Ratings: Miami -8.9; Total Points 44.0

Las Vegas Raiders have one advantage in the fact they’re coming off a bye week, whilst Miami played on Monday Night Football. Unfortunately, there are very few other positives for this Las Vegas team. The Raiders still have a lack of confidence over underperforming QBs and running backs. They may have had two weeks off, but if your players aren’t up to the grade there is little you can do to get a team going.

Miami will be pleased for their win at the L.A. Rams on Monday night, it was always going to be a tough match but it keeps Miami’s slim playoff chances alive. Miami are a good side and deserve to be strong favourites for this match but again, the line is quite high and I wouldn’t want to give a Touchdown+ away. No bet.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW11 Tip: NO BET

L.A. RAMS (4-5) @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (3-7)

Vegas Line: L.A. Rams – 4.5; Total Points 43.0

My Rating: L.A. Rams -1; Total Points 41.4

The L.A. Rams are coming off a Monday night defeat to Miami 23-15. Their numbers weren’t that bad, but the result was. Having a short week and a trip to New England isn’t going to help their preparation time.

This season has been all about improving for the New England Patriots and last week’s easy win in Chicago will have given them great confidence. Chicago were so bad last week that it’s hard to say how good the Patriots are, the Rams will certainly be a bigger test.

I think this match can go either way and I wouldn’t mind taking +4.5 points about the home team.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW11 Tip: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +4.5 POINTS

CLEVELAND BROWNS (2-7) @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (3-7)

Vegas Line: New Orleans -1; Total Points 44.0

My Ratings: New Orleans -1.3; Total Points 43.3

Cleveland are coming off a bye week. It has been a below par season for them so far and the team are running 3.5 points off the season’s opener. With QB Deshaun Watson out for the season they have to rely on QB Jameis Winston who will be playing his third match, a run that includes a win versus Baltimore.

New Orleans Saints will be buoyed by a win against Atlanta and have a chance here of another close match. QB Derek Carr is (3-4) this season with 3 losses when he didn’t play.

This match could go either way and I hold no firm opinion on who will be the victor.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW11 Tip: NO BET

BALTIMORE RAVENS (7-3) @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS (7-2)

Vegas Line: Baltimore -3; Total Points 47.5

My Ratings: Baltimore -0.4; Total Points 50.7

I tend to be biased for Baltimore every week as on their day, they’re probably the best team in the League. However, two narrow wins against Cincinnati and defeats against Las Vegas and Cleveland leave me wondering if they’re as good as I think.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have been one of the surprise teams of the season and they are on a four game winning streak. Last week they went to Washington and just edged out another good side. QB Russell Wilson’s offense is producing good numbers and this match looks like a high scoring slug out between good sides. Over points could be tempting but I feel the 3 points line is about right.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW11 Tip: NO BET

ATLANTA FALCONS (6-4) @ DENVER BRONCOS (5-5)

Vegas Line: Denver -1; Total Points 44.0

My Ratings: Denver -1.3; Total Points 43.4

The Atlanta Falcons will be disappointed about last week’s loss when they were warm favourites in New Orleans. Looking at their fixtures, their last seven matches have been fairly soft and the Falcons have had mixed results. QB Kirk Cousins has some okay figures, although he gets sacked more than the team would want.

Denver are coming off Away matches to Baltimore and Kansas City so it hasn’t been easy, although they nearly won in KC. Rookie QB Bo Nix has had a good season, although their yardage and scoring numbers could be better. Denver have been playing some good sides recently and that may prove an advantage against a team who have had loads of soft fixtures.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW11 Tip: DENVER BRONCOS -1

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (4-5) @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (5-4)

Vegas Line: San Francisco -6.5; Total Points 47.0

My Ratings: San Francisco -9.8; Total Points 48.3

When these two teams met earlier in the season the 49ers came out 36-24 winners and a yardage advantage of 483 – 358. Since that meet up, San Francisco have improved and Seattle have stayed the same.

Seattle are coming off a bye week which has given them longer to prepare for this big important Divisional match. For Seattle, it’s a must win game or their season is virtually over due to the Head to Head records.

San Francisco won last week 23-20 in Tampa. The scoreline doesn’t give a picture of the yardage dominance to SF: 413 – 215 was quite convincing. It was also Christian McCaffrey’s first match of the season, so confidence will be growing for the second half of their campaign.

I do think San Francisco will have too much for Seattle but this is an all or nothing game for Seattle so I will sit this one out.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW11 Tip: NO BET

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (9-0) @ BUFFALO BILLS (8-2)

Vegas Line: Buffalo -2.5; Total Points 46.0

My Ratings: Buffalo -3.4; Total Points 44.9

Kansas City are lucky that their undefeated run continues as a blocked Field Goal gave them a 16-14 win against Denver. KC’s unbeaten run is now 15 matches and they are underdogs here! QB Patrick Mahomes’ underdog record is 12-1-1, this team just don’t know how to lose.

Buffalo are on a five game winning streak of their own at the moment and they know if they win here, they can still be No.1 seeds in the AFC Conference. Buffalo have a few key injuries going into this match, wideout Keon Coleman is out and WRs Amari Cooper & Dalton Kincaid are both doubtful. Tough one to call.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW11 Tip: NO BET

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (4-6) @ NEW YORK JETS (3-7)

Vegas Line: New York Jets -3.5; Total Points 43.5

My Ratings: New York Jets -2.1; Total Points 40.9

Indianapolis have had a tough recent schedule with three losses against Houston, Minnesota and Buffalo. On a positive note, they beat the Bills on yardage 415-361 with running back Jonathan Taylor rushing for 114 yards. The Colts can still make the playoffs with a good end of season run.

New York Jets have lost 6 of their last 7 matches and after last week’s 31-6 mauling by Arizona, their slim chances of making the playoffs look even slimmer. The Jets keep on under achieving and it has been going on for at least 2 seasons now. Scoring points has been their biggest problem this season, other than that I’m not too sure what is their biggest problem.

I have to favour Indianapolis here after the Jets’ heavy defeat last week.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW11 Tip: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +3.5

CINCINNATI BENGALS (4-6) @ L.A. CHARGERS (6-3)

Vegas Line: L.A. Chargers -1.5; Total Points 47.0

My Ratings: L.A. Chargers -3.4; Total Points 45.4

Cincinnati are coming off a long week and an impressive performance in defeat at Baltimore. QB Joe Burrows passed for 421 yards last week to show what this team can do on offense when passing the ball. Ja’Marr Chase received for 264 yards, which was an NFL Season high by a mile.

The LA Chargers have had 3 comfortable wins on the trot against New Orleans, Cleveland and Tennessee and have a good chance of making the playoffs in 5-7 place. QB Justin Herbert had a rare sack free match last week.

This match is tricky to call as both have similar abilities.

2024 NFL Regular Season GW11 Tip: NO BET

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-JanKeys