2024 NFL Thanksgiving Preview

Jan Keys landed his spread bet on the Ravens on MNF but his two player prop bets let him down. This week it is Thanksgiving so we have two matches on Thursday and another two on Friday. Hopefully Jan can improve on his overall seasonal record of 42-37, check out Jan’s 2024 NFL Thanksgiving picks below.

Thursday Matches

Chicago Bears (4-7) @ Detroit Lions (10-1)

Vegas Lines: Detroit Lions -10.5; Total Points: 48.5

Jan Keys’ Ratings: Detroit -14; Total Points: 44.8

Last week’s Results

Indianapolis Colts 6 – Detroit Lions 34; Chicago Bears 27 – Minnesota Vikings 30.

Offensive And Defensive Averages

Lions: Average Total Yards (Off/Def) 394-322; Passing 243-227; Rushing 151-95.

Bears: Average Total Yards 299-339; Passing 188-209; Rushing 111-130.

Projected Totals: Detroit 367 – Pass 226, Rush 141; Chicago 311 – Pass 208, Rush 103.

The Detroit Lions are the current favorites for the Superbowl and with a combined 76-12 scoreline for their last two matches, we can see why people are taking notice. They are on a nine match winning streak at the moment and it’s highly unlikely to end here against their divisional rivals.

The Chicago Bears come into this match on a five game losing streak and will finish bottom of the NFC East this season, barring a miracle. Super-hyped Quarterback Caleb Williams is finally coming to the party and he will be asked to carry this team to better performances for the remainder of the season.

Both teams come into this Thanksgiving match with little rest and a few injuries. With the line in double digits for a match between two divisional rivals, I’m going to take a chance on the Bears here with a 10.5 point head start.

2024 NFL Thanksgiving Pick: Chicago Bears +10.5 points @ 1.83

New York Giants (2-9) @ Dallas Cowboys (4-7)

Vegas Lines: Dallas Cowboys -3.5; Total Points: 37.5

Jan Keys’ Ratings: Dallas -6.4; Total Points: 43.3

Last week’s Results

Washington Commanders 26 – Dallas Cowboys 34; New York Giants 7 – Tampa Bay 30.

Offensive And Defensive Averages

Cowboys: Average Total Yards (Off/Def) 323-370; Passing 237-223; Rushing 86-147.

Giants: Average Total Yards 304-342; Passing 188-194; Rushing 116-148.

Projected Totals: Dallas 333 – Pass 216, Rush 117; New York 337 – Pass 206, Rush 131.

This isn’t the best match up for a Thanksgiving afternoon. Both teams will be playing with their second string quarterbacks and neither team are having a good season. These two teams met in New York in Week 4 with Dallas winning 20-15.

Dallas had a surprise win last week when 10.5 underdogs at Washington. This will boost their confidence and understudy QB Cooper Rush had his second good game and will be hoping to build on it. Although they are facing a short turnaround, Dallas will have a few players coming back from injury, which is another positive for them coming into this match.

All is not well in the Giants’ camp. Many star players are not happy with the dropping of QB Daniel Jones and have said so. Tommy DeVito came in last week at QB but the team just got worse. Tampa Bay took them to the cleaners 30-7, this coming after a loss in Munich to lowly Carolina. I’m not sure when the Giants will turn the corner, but it’s unlikely to be any time soon.

2024 NFL Thanksgiving Pick: Dallas Cowboys -3.5 points @ 1.91

Friday Matches

Miami Dolphins (5-6) @ Green Bay Packers (8-3)

Vegas Lines: Green Bay Packers -3; Total Points: 47.5

Jan Keys’ Ratings: Green Bay -5.5; Total Points: 44.5

Last week’s Results

Green Bay Packers 34 – San Francisco 49ers 10; Miami Dolphins 34 – New England 15.

Offensive And Defensive Averages

Packers: Average Total Yards (Off/Def) 380-319; Passing 230-207; Rushing 152-111.

Dolphins: Average Total Yards 324-304; Passing 207-197; Rushing 117-107.

Projected Totals: Green Bay 342 – Pass 213, Rush 129; Miami 321 – Pass 207, Rush 114.

Match number three of our Thanksgiving treat is probably the best. Both sides come into it with a lot of confidence following good wins at the weekend. Although no snow or rain is expected, it’s going to be very cold for this night match. I’m not sure how the boys from sunny Florida will feel about this.

Green Bay remain in the Play Off Wild Card places and just need to keep winning. Last week’s big win versus San Francisco may have flattered them as QB Brock Purdy missed the match for the 49ers and star DB Fred Warner is playing though a fractured ankle. I still question how good the Packers really are and I feel they still have lots of room for improvement.

This will be a difficult match for Miami, who are on a similar level to their hosts tonight. They have been playing well these last five weeks and they should be full of confidence. Their form is built around QB Tua Tagovailoa, who has been amazing since coming back from (another) concussion for the Dolphins. However, one thing to note is that Tagovailoa has is a 0-7 record in cold weather. Obviously, records are there to be broken and this is a tricky one to call, but I’m going with home field advantage.

2024 NFL Thanksgiving Pick: Green Bay Packers -3 points @ 1.83

Las Vegas Raiders (2-9) @ Kansas City Chiefs (10-1)

Vegas Lines: Kansas City Chiefs -13; Total Points: 42.5

Jan Keys’ Ratings: Kansas City -12.3; Total Points: 47.3

Last week’s Results

Carolina Panthers 27 – Kansas City Chiefs 30; Las Vegas Raiders 19 – Denver Broncos 29.

Offensive And Defensive Averages

Chiefs: Average Total Yards (Off/Def) 343-301; Passing 226-216; Rushing 117-85.

Raiders: Average Total Yards 293-328; Passing 218-208; Rushing 75-120.

Projected Totals: Kansas City 336 – Pass 217, Rush 119; Las Vegas 297 – Pass 217, Rush 80.

Friday Night Football brings us double Superbowl Champions, the Kansas City Chiefs versus the low flying Las Vegas Raiders. On paper, this should be one to miss unless you are a diehard Chiefs fan. The only question we are all asking is will KC beat the 13 point spread?

The Kansas City Chiefs come into this match after a poor performance and just getting home against the Carolina Panthers. As they say in football, “You are only as good as your last game.” We have become accustomed to the Chiefs winning this season, but not by a whole lot. The Chiefs ran out 27-20 winners in Las Vegas earlier in the season.

Las Vegas have lost seven matches on the trot and in most of them, they have been well beaten. Last week Las Vegas lost QB Gardner Minshew to injury and he is out for the season. Backup QB Aidan O’Connell isn’t a bad replacement, this team is just struggling as a whole.

I expect KC to win but they haven’t beaten a team by more than 13 points all season, so the only logical bet is to take the underdogs with a 13 point head start.

2024 NFL Thanksgiving Pick: Las Vegas Raiders + 13 points @ 1.91

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-JanKeys