2024 NFL Week 11 TNF Picks

Jan Keys landed both his player prop bets on Monday Night Football and that means he is now ahead for the season with an overall record of 31-29. Hopefully we can keep the momentum going on Thursday night with the Eagles hosting the Commanders in an NFC East top of the table showdown. Check out Jan Keys’ 2024 NFL Week 11 TNF picks below.

Washington Commanders (7-3) @ Philadelphia Eagles (7-2)

Vegas Lines: Philadelphia Eagles -3.5; Total Points: 48.0

Jan Keys’ Ratings: Philadelphia Eagles -6.8; Total Points: 46.7

Last week’s Results

Dallas Cowboys 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 34; Washington Commanders 27 – Pittsburgh Steelers 28.

Offensive And Defensive Averages

Eagles: Average Total Yards (Off/Def) 374-274; Passing 198-173; Rushing 176-101.

Commanders: Average Total Yards 377-325; Passing 223-183; Rushing 153-142.

Projected Totals: Philadelphia 350 – Pass 191, Rush 159; Washington 326 – Pass 198; Rush 127.

Philadelphia have now won five matches in a row. They have admittedly had a favourable schedule but there is no doubt that they have improved into Superbowl contenders.

The NFC East is a head to head battle between tonight’s two rivals and they will meet again in Week 16. So, although it’s an important game tonight, nothing will be decided. I wouldn’t read too much into last weekend’s emphatic win for the Eagles over Dallas, the Cowboys were without their starting QB and their backup leaves a lot to be desired.

Commanders On The Rise

Washington are a team on the up and they have performed amazingly this season. They just missed out last weekend against Pittsburgh, going down to a narrow defeat. Washington lacked a running game last week and only carried for 60 yards, but I’m expecting to see their number one running back Bryan Robinson Jr back on the field after missing the last two weeks.

Although my ratings expect Philadelphia to cover, I’m a bit reluctant to take the minus 3.5 spread in such an important match for both sides. The winners of the NFC East are likely to be seeded no.2 in the Conference playoffs, with the loser seeded 6. This shows you how important this Divisional match is to both teams and given what’s at stake, I am going to swerve the spread market and focus on a couple of prop picks instead.

2024 NFL Week 11 TNF Pick: No Bet

Prop lines

Philadelphia Eagles

Jalen Hurts Passing Yards – 226.5 (so far: 278, 183, 311, 158, 264, 114, 236, 230, 202) 5 Ov/4 Un

Rushing Yards

Saquon Barkley 93.5 (so far: 109, 95, 147, 84, 47, 176, 108, 159, 66) 6 Ov/3 Un

Jalen Hurts 41.5 (so far: 33, 85, 25, 20, 33, 56, 37, 67, 56.) 4 Ov/5 Un

Receiving Yards

AJ Brown 80.5 (so far: 119, DNP, DNP, DNP, 116, 89, 84, 36, 109) 5 Ov/1 Un

Dallas Goedert 31.5 (so far: 31, 38, 170, 62, 0, DNP, DNP, DNP, 25) 3 Ov/3 Un

Saquon Barkley 12.5 (so far: 23, 21, 9, 32, 7, 11, 3, 40, 12) 4 Ov/5 Un

Washington Commanders

Jayden Daniels Passing Yards 220.5 (so far: 184, 226, 254, 233, 238, 269, DNP, 326, 209, 202) 5 Ov/3 UN

Rushing Yards

Brian Robinson Jr 45.5 (so far: 40, 133, 33, 101, 18, DNP, 71, 65, DNP, DNP) 4 Ov/3 Un

Jayden Daniels 44.5 (so far: 88, 44, 39, 47, 82, 22, 34, 52, 35, 5.) 4 Ov/6 Un  

Receiving Yards

Terry McLaurin 61.5 (so far: 17, 22, 100, 52, 112, 53, 98, 125, 19, 113) 5 Ov/5 Un

Noah Brown 40.5 (so far: DNP, 56, 29, 26, DNP, 58, 16, 73, 60, 33) 4 Ov/4 Un

Zach Ertz 33.5 (so far: 28, 62, 38, 22, 10, 68, 40, 77, 5, 31) 5 Ov/5 Un

I’m expecting to see Philadelphia have a strong rushing game tonight. That should mean that the wide receivers’ numbers may be slightly down. Dallas Goedert has had two big games this season with 170 & 62 receiving yards. They both happened when the Eagles’ no.1 receiver A.J. Brown was sidelined. In matches when A.J. Brown has played, Goedert’s yards are 31, 0, 25. It is fine lines with this bet, but given those stats you just have to favour Under 31.5 receiving yards for Goedert.

2024 NFL Week 11 TNF Prop Pick: Dallas Goedert UNDER 31.5 receiving yards @ 1.91

Jalen Hurts’ passing yards line has gone up from 220.5 to 226.5, which is a big move with many overs players. I’m expecting Philadelphia to run the football a lot tonight and my original projected passing number for the Eagles is 191 Yards. If Philadelphia hit the front early they are a really good side at chewing the clock, so I’ll happily take the under line.

2024 NFL Week 11 TNF Pick: Jalen Hurts UNDER 226.5 passing yards @ 1.91

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-JanKeys