2024 NFL Week 12 MNF Picks

Jan had another decent night on Sunday, going 4-2 with his spread picks and his overall record now stands at 41-35. Now, he switches focus to Monday Night Football and the clash between the Baltimore Ravens and the Los Angeles Chargers. He likes two more player props and a bet against the spread, check out Jan Keys’ 2024 NFL Week 12 MNF picks below.

Baltimore Ravens (7-4) @ Los Angeles Chargers (7-3)

Vegas Lines: Baltimore Ravens -2.5; Total Points: 51

Jan Keys’ Ratings: Baltimore Ravens -1; Total Points: 47.2

Last week’s Results

Los Angeles Chargers 34 – Cincinnati Bengals 27; Pittsburgh Steelers 18 – Baltimore Ravens 16.

Offensive And Defensive Averages

Chargers: Average Total Yards (Off/Def) 327-317; Passing 205-207; Rushing 122-110.

Ravens: Average Total Yards 430-362; Passing 253-284; Rushing 177-78.

Projected Totals: Los Angeles 344 – Pass 244, Rush 100; Baltimore 374 – Pass 230, Rush 144.

I’ve been pro Baltimore all season but they have been making hard work of matches and this will probably be another tough game. Baltimore continue to hit big yard numbers with QB Lamar Jackson and RB Derrick Henry both showing they’re a lethal pairing.

The Ravens’ rushing numbers have been down these last four weeks (124,127,99,124) with their first seven season matches averaging 211 yards. That has made a big difference to how this team plays.

The L.A. Chargers come into this match on a four game winning streak and have been lucky with a soft fixture list for the season. QB Justin Herbert is having a very good year, throwing just one interception. While the Chargers like to mix their game up well, I feel they may struggle against Baltimore’s rush defense.

The highlight of this game is the sibling rivalry between the coaches. Brothers John and Jim come together to renew their rivalry, who will come out on top? I will continue my biased opinion in thinking Baltimore are just a cut above the Chargers.

2024 NFL Week 12 MNF Pick: Baltimore Ravens -2.5 @ 1.87

Prop lines

Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert Passing – 255.5 (so far: 144, 130, 125, 179, 237, 349, 279, 282, 164, 297) 4 Ov/6 Un

Rushing Yards

JK Dobbins 47.5 (so far: 135, 131, 44, 32, 96, 40, 57, 85, 50, 56)  7 Ov/3 Un  

Gus Edwards 22.5 (so far: 26, 59, 9, 19, DNP, DNP, DNP, DNP, 59, 26) 4 Ov/2 Un

Justin Herbert 21.5 (so far: 6, 18, 0, 0, 2, 8, 49, 2, 32, 65) 3 Ov/7 Un

Receiving Yards

Ladd McConkey 66.5 (so far: 39, 26, 44, 67, 43, 46, 111, 64, 52, 123) 3 Ov/7 Un

Quentin Johnston 48.5 (so far: 38, 51, 44, 9, 22, DNP, DNP, 118, 24, 48) 2 Ov/6 Un

Will Dissly 42.5 (so far: 13, 29, 19, 24, 26, 81, 41, 9, 30, 80) 2 Ov/8 Un

Josh Palmer 36.5 (so far: 15, 19, DNP, 36, 38, 63, 72, 63, 36, 23) 4 Ov/5 Un

Baltimore Ravens

Lamar Jackson Pass 238.5 (so far: 273, 247, 182, 156, 348, 323, 281, 289, 280, 290, 207) 8 Ov/3 Un

Rushing Yards

Derrick Henry 85.5 (so far: 46, 84, 151, 199, 92, 132, 169, 73, 106, 68, 65) 6 Ov/5 Un

Lamar Jackson 44.5 (so far: 122, 45, 87, 54, 55, 40, 52, 46, 4, 33, 46) 8 Ov/3 Un

Receiving Yards

Zay Flowers 59.5 (so far: 37, 91, 20, 10, 111, 132, 11, 115, 127, 34, 39) 5 Ov/6 Un

Rachod Bateman 37.5 (so far: 53, 40, 28, 23, 58, 71, 121, 28, 25, 54, 30) 6 Ov/5 Un

Mark Andrews 32.5 (so far: 14, 51, 0, 0, 55, 66, 41, 36, 26, 68, 22) 6 Ov/5 Un

Isaiah Likely 26.5 (so far: 111, 26, 4, 26, 13, 27, 17, 47, 0, DNP, 75) 4 Ov/6 Un

Player Prop Picks

There are a few reasons why I like the under for Ladd McConkey’s receiving yards. Firstly, and simply, McConkey has gone under this number seven out of 10 times this season. Secondly, he was put in as getting 5.5 receptions by the oddsmakers and the money has come for the under. Last, but not least, he is currently suffering from a shoulder injury and has missed some practise this last week.

2024 NFL Week 12 MNF Prop Pick: Ladd McConkey UNDER 67.5 receiving yards @ 1.91

I am expecting the Chargers to have difficult rushing the football against this vaunted Ravens’ defense. Herbert has only gone over 21.5 rushing yards in three out of ten games this season, so this will be a hard number for him to achieve.

2024 NFL Week 12 MNF Pick: Justin Herbert UNDER 21.5 rushing yards @ 1.83

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-JanKeys