2024 NFL Week 6 TNF Picks

After a brief break last week Jan Keys is back for Thursday Night Football, an NFC West grudge match between the 49ers and the Seahawks. He likes a couple of prop bets, check out Jan’s 2024 NFL Week 6 TNF picks below. You can find his Week 7 College Football spread picks here.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (3-2) VS SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (2-3)

VEGAS LINES: SAN FRANCISCO -3.5; TOTAL POINTS: 49.5  

JAN KEYS RATINGS: SAN FRANCISCO -1.5; TOTAL POINTS: 46.8 

Last Week’s Results

Seattle 20 – N.Y. Giants 29; San Francisco 23 – Arizona 24

Offensive And Defensive Averages

Seattle: Total Yards (Off/Def) 376 – 311; Passing 271 – 183; Rushing 105 – 128

San Francisco: Total Yards  407 – 308; Passing 263 – 197; Rushing 144 – 111

Seattle made a great start to the season, going 3-0, although they had a soft start. They beat Denver at Home 26-20 then just scraped past New England 23-20 and in their third game they beat a Miami team suffering from Quarterback problems.

The first decent team they played was on the road at Detroit where they lost 42-29, before last week losing to the New York Giants 29-20, a game they were expected to win. Basically, the Seahawk are not a top 10 team.

San Francisco are a good side but somehow have a losing record. The 49ers have been favourites for all 5 matches played and only won 2, so something isn’t going right. Hard to see how bad things are going but they have underperformed big time. Punters will mostly be backing the 49ers simply because they are a better team on paper. However, -3.5 isn’t a perfect line and one to give a miss.

San Francisco have won the last 5 meetings between the two sides.

Seattle Prop Lines

Geno Smith (QB): Passing Yards 252.5; Pass Attempts 36.5; Completions 24.5

Rushing Yards: Kenneth Walker III 63.5; Geno Smith 14.5; Zach Charbonnet 13.5

Receiving Yards: Zach Charbonnet 13.5; Noah Fant 22.5; Tyler Lockett 44.5; D.K. Metcalf 64.5; Jaxon Smith- Njigba 47.5; Kenneth Walker III 19.5

San Francisco Prop Lines

Brock Purdy (QB): Passing Yards 250.5; Passing Attempts 31.5; Completions 20.5

Rushing Yards: Jordan Mason 82.5; Brock Purdy 12.5; Deebo Samuel 13.5

Receiving Yards: Brandon Aiyuk 64.5; Jauan Jennings 28.5; Kyle Juszczyk 7.5; George Kittle 49.5; Jordan Mason 9.5; Deebo Samuel 56.5

Jan Keys’ Prop Picks

GENO SMITH OVER 14.5 YARDS RUSHING @ 1.89

Geno Smith has gone Over Rushing Yards on the 3/3 times when both Walker and Charbonnet played. On the 2 occasions he didn’t go over, Kenneth Walker didn’t play, so they didn’t really use the Rushing game as much. I expect him to use his feet tonight.

BRANDON AIYUK UNDER 62.5 YARDS RECEIVING @ 1.83

Brandon Aiyuk had amazing yardage last Week of 147 yards against a leaky Cardinals defense which has raised his average yardage. His overall figures this season are 28, 43, 48, 48 and 147.  That is 4 Under and 1 Over so the value surely lies with the under here.

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-JanKeys