2024 NFL Week 7 MNF Picks

It was a tough day for Jan Keys on Sunday and he finished up going 2-3 but he is still well ahead overall with a 21-14 record. We have two matches this Monday night, the Saints v Broncos and the Chargers v Cardinals.  Check out Jan’s 2024 NFL Week 7 MNF picks below.

Baltimore Ravens (4-2) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2)

VEGAS LINES: Baltimore -3.5; TOTAL POINTS: 49.5

JAN KEYS RATINGS: Baltimore -2.5; TOTAL POINTS: 52.4

Last week’s Results

Baltimore 27 – Washington 23; New Orleans 27 – Tampa Bay 51

Offensive And Defensive Averages

Baltimore Ravens: Average Yards (Off/Def) 454-335; Passing 248-276; Rushing 206-59

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Average Yards 365-357; Passing 230-252; Rushing 135-105

The Baltimore Ravens remain one of the best teams in the NFL and they are second favourites for the Superbowl. After losing their opening two matches they have bounced back with four straight wins.

The Ravens have only conceded an average of 59 yards Rushing per match whilst the Henry – Jackson rushing partnership rolls on. My only negative about backing Baltimore is the line of -3.5 as their two wins on the road this season were both by 3 points.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers scored a massive 51 points last weekend (the highest of the season) but their form has been a bit up and down. The ‘Up’ was winning in Detroit, but they followed that by being smashed by the Denver Broncos.

They may have been impressive last week in New Orleans but The Saints were missing their first choice QB and the Bucs still conceded 27 points.

I expect the Ravens to win but I’m just not a fan of the -3.5 point line, so I will leave this match alone. No bet.

2024 NFL Week 7 MNF Pick: No Bet

Los Angeles Chargers (3-2) @ Arizona Cardinals (2-4)

VEGAS LINES: LA Chargers -1.5; TOTAL POINTS: 44.5

JAN KEYS RATINGS: LA Chargers -1; TOTAL POINTS: 42.1

Last week’s Results

Denver Broncos 16 – LA Chargers 23; Green Bay 34 – Arizona Cardinals 13

Offensive And Defensive Averages

LA Chargers: Average Yards (Off/Def) 281-289; Passing 154-192; Rushing 127-97

Arizona Cardinals: Average Yards 332-373; Passing 198-217; Rushing 134-156

The LA Chargers might be pleased with their 3-2 seasonal record but those three wins have been against Carolina, Las Vegas and Denver, three average teams. So far, all of their five matches have been Total Points Unders –   32, 29, 30, 27, 39. So, the line of 44.5 points might be a bit of value under bet Bet.

The big question is which version of the Arizona Cardinals will turn up. Will it be the one that gained impressive wins against the San Francisco 49ers and LA Rams? Or will it be the pitiful version that has been embarrassed by Washington and Green Bay recently.

As I have pointed out The Chargers are 5-0 in the under total points market, it’s worth noting Arizona are 5-1 going over. That makes the total points line a no bet.

There is one prop bet that is catching my eye and that is for JK Dobbins to have over 79.5 rushing yards.

Dobbins has mixed rushing figures so far this season; 135yds, 131yds, 44yds, 32yds and 96yds. He is the Chargers primary rusher. The main reason I believe he will go over the line is because this leaky Arizona defense is allowing an average of 156 rushing yards per match.

2024 NFL Week 7 MNF Pick: JK Dobbins to have over 79.5 rushing yards @ 1.83

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-JanKeys