2024 NFL Week 9 TNF Picks

Jan Keys got back on track on Monday Night Football. The Steelers managed to cover the 6 point spread but they were a shade fortunate with the Giants suffering from a couple of questionable calls by the umpires. Now, we focus on Thursday Night Football. The Jets host the Texans and it is a must win match for the home team. Check out Jan’s 2024 NFL Week 9 TNF picks below.

Houston Texans (6-2) @ New York Jets (2-6)

Vegas Lines: New York Jets -2; Total Points: 42.5

Jan Keys’ Ratings: Houston Texans -1.7; Total Points: 43.5

Last week’s Results

NE Patriots 25 – NY Jets 22; Houston Texans 23 – Indianapolis Colts 20

Offensive And Defensive Averages

NY Jets: Average Total Yards (Off/Def) 311-287; Passing 224-161; Rushing 87-126

Houston Texans: Average Total Yards 351-280; Passing 232-164; Rushing 119-116

Jan Keys Projected Totals: NY Jets 295 – Pass 194; Rush 101.

                                                  Texans 319 – Pass 196; Rush 123.

The New York Jets have a positive total yards over their eight games this season, which is a surprise for a team with a 2-6 record. The Jets have lost five games in a row and although they have been unlucky in a couple of close matches, they seem to have forgotten how to win. This should be another tight encounter.

The Houston Texans are the polar opposite to the Jets. They know how to win close matches. The Texans have only lost 2 matches this season, to Minnesota and Green Bay, who are both solid teams. The New York Jets aren’t up to that standard and I’m surprised that they are the favourites for this match. Sure, it will probably be a close match but I, and my ratings, expect Houston to just about come out on top.

2024 NFL Week 9 tNF Pick: Houston +2 @ 1.91

Prop lines

New York Jets

Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards – 233.5 (so far 167, 176, 281, 225, 244, 294, 276, 233) = 4 Over/4 Under

Rushing Yards: Breece Hall 66.5 (so far 54, 33, 55, 4, 23, 113, 38, 80) = 2 Over/6 Under

Receiving Yards: Breece Hall 31.5 (so far 39, 52, 29, 14, 14, 56, 103, 9) = 4 Over/4 Under

                                Garrett Wilson 61.5 (so far 60, 57, 33, 41, 101, 107, 61, 113) 3 Over/5 Under

Houston Texans

CJ Stroud Passing yards – 225.5 (so far 234, 260, 215, 345, 331, 192, 86, 285) 5 Over/3 Under

Rushing Yards: Joe Mixon 80.5 (so far 159, 25, X, X, X, 102, 115, 102) 4 Over/1 Under

Receiving Yards: Dalton Schultz 42.5 (so far 16, 21, 11, 34, 34, 27, 28, 52) 1 Over/7 Under

There are two prop bets that seem to represent a bit of value. Firstly, Breece Hall under 66.5 rushing yards is tempting. He has only gone over twice this season. The Jets have struggled to rush the football this season but I have the Jets down for 101 rushing yards tonight and Hall is likely to get around 70% of those yards. So what looked like a good under bet initially, doesn’t make as much appeal now. – no bet

The other value bet on paper is Dalton Schultz under 42.5 receiving yards (1 Ov-7 Un). However, Houston are missing their top two receivers, including Stefon Diggs who was 5-81 yards last week. Schultz is likely to be targeted a lot more with Diggs absent so it might just be worth backing Schultz to have OVER 42.5 receiving yards.

2024 NFL Week 9 TNF Pick: Dalton Schultz OVER 42.5 yards receiving @ 1.91

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-JanKeys