2024 PDC World Championship Darts Preview – JP
2024 PDC World Championship Darts Betting Preview
The 2024 PDC World Championship, the greatest show in darts, starts on the 15th of December and runs through until the 3rd of January when the new World Champion will be crowned, but will it be a new champion?
There have only been eleven men who have won the title, mostly thanks to Phil Taylor hogging it for fourteen years. Thankfully, since Taylor’s last win in 2013, we have seen six different winners.
Michael van Gerwen has won three, Gary Anderson and Peter Wright two each and one each for Rob Cross, Gerwyn Price and defending champion Michael Smith.
The list of runners up isn’t a lot different. In the same time period there has only been six different runners up. Phil Taylor twice, Gary Anderson twice, Michael Smith twice, Michael van Gerwen twice and Peter Wright and Adrian Lewis once.
Closed Shop
Reaching the final of the World Championship has been a very closed shop. It is a very elite group of players. We do get some interlopers reaching the semi-finals, such as Gabriel Clemens last year, but if you are looking to find the finalists this year, stick to the big players, the major winners who are near the top of the rankings.
Looking at the last fifteen years, all of the winners have been ranked in the top 20. The longest seed was Rob Cross in 2018. He was only ranked 20th but if memory serves me well, he was quite well up in the betting, joint 5th favourite and around 15.00 in the market.
Cross was a hot ticket in 2017 having reached two Euro Tour finals and he also made the final of the European Championships, the Grand Slam quarter final and Players Championship finals semi-final.
Top 5 Seeds Dominant
Of the fifteen world champions in this period, thirteen were seeded in the top five. Only Cross and Peter Wright (7th seed) were not. The picture is similar for the runner up. Only one unseeded player made the final, Simon Whitlock in 2010.
Andy Hamilton was the seventeenth seed when runner up in 2012, Peter Wright was the sixteenth seed in 2014, and Gary Anderson was the eleventh seed in 2011 and the thirteenth seed in 2021. Anderson had had to sit out much of 2020 with a back injury and his seeding was depressed as a result. All the rest were seeded in the top ten.
Form Trumps Rankings
Clearly there is a very strong correlation between the finalists and the World Rankings. I have always been keen to stress that very often, the market is overly influenced by a player’s world ranking.
Recent form trumps a players ranking for me and it has proved to be a profitable approach. However, the World Championship outright market is the exception. In this market it is important to concentrate on the very top ranked players and find which of them is in good form and ready to have a big run.
The form players outside the top of the rankings have to be considered, but they are of more interest in the side markets, such as winning their quarter and so on, but the Worlds are really all about the Big Beasts.
Ally Pally Form Key
Tournament form is very important. This is the richest tournament on the calendar by a huge margin. Other majors pay out £100000 to £150000 to the winner, the World Championship winner picks up £500000. Inflation is eating into that but this is a very big pie.
First round losers get £7500. The top 32 seeds go straight into the second round and they are guaranteed £15000. If you make the quarter finals it is £50000, so a decent run here makes a player’s season and secures their future for at least the next couple of years.
The players are aware of its importance and that ramps up the pressure to perform in each and every match.
Less Stress
The very top players have banked so much ranking money that they are less stressed by playing for the big bucks. They can still get very tight at the business end because they want the title, but it is the players around the top 16, top 32 and top 64 cut off points who can really feel it.
Those are the rankings that open doors for the next season and it is a case of money making money, and this is where the big money is.
We can now take a more detailed look at the list of the top thirty two ranked players and see if we can get any strong pointers to the likely finalists.
2024 PDC World Championship: The Top Thirty Two Seeds
Last ten match record on the left, tournament record on the right with the most recent on the far left.
1) Michael Smith 6-4 1/1/3/3/QF/3/2/RU/2/2/RU/W
Smith is the defending champion and number 1 seed. His seasonal win rate is 66% but his recent form is not world class.
There is a general consensus that Smith’s form has taken a dip ever since he switched darts manufacturer in July of this year. He hasn’t won a title since, but he has had some decent runs.
He was a semi-finalist at the World Grand Prix in October but since then he lost in the second round at the European Championship, didn’t get out of the group stage of the grand Slam for the first time since 2023, and lost in the first round of the Players Championship.
Defending the Championship came easy to Phil Taylor but in the last fifteen years, the title has only been successfully defended three times and the last was by Gary Anderson in 2016.
2024 PDC World Championship Odds – 15.00
2) Michael van Gerwen 8-2 1/2/2/1/3/RU/W/SF/3/W/SF/W/RU/QF/3/RU
MVG is the winning most player in the field with three titles and three times a runner up. It is fair to say that while he still considers himself to be the best player in the world, his results say otherwise.
His win rate in 2023 is a very healthy 71%, but that is well short of his peak of 91% back in 2016. His win rate has declined in every year since, but is still amongst the very best.
Amongst the very best is a good way to describe MVG these days. His record in the ranking majors in 2023 is played seven, runner up in three, quarter finalist in one, second round loser in two and a first round loser in the other. His best performance was to win the non-ranking Premier League.
Last year he won three majors and the Premier League. It has been a year of more slight decline. He is still one of the likely contenders, but he will have to improve his doubling on the big darts. There are pivotal moments in big matches which require a double to be hit and MVG’s effectiveness is not what it was.
2024 PDC World Championship Odds – 5.00
3) Luke Humphries 10-0 PR/QF/QF/1/QF/4
There was an online straw poll on Twitter the other day asking who the best player in the world was right now. Humphries was the popular choice, and rightly so.
His 2023 win rate is 77%, he has won all of his last ten matches, he has won three ranking majors in 2023, along with a semi-final and a quarter final. Of his last twenty one matches in ranking majors, he has won twenty.
His tournament record is surprisingly good for someone who is just 28 years old. He has played in six previous Championships and reached three quarter finals, the first back in 2019. He knows where the toilets are, and Ally Pally holds no fears for him.
2024 PDC World Championship Odds – 4.33
4) Peter Wright 6-4 1/3/1/2/RU/QF/QF/SF/2/2/W/3/W/3
Wright is a two time winner and one time runner up but is it time to discount his chances? Wright has won a ranking major and a Euro Tour title in 2023 which suggests otherwise.
However, it was very hard to fancy his chances of winning either of those titles and that applies here as well. His tinkering with his equipment is as old as the hills, but when he is doing it mid leg, you have to think that his confidence has gone. He can still produce his A game, but only occasionally.
The longer format may help him find the time to settle on a set of darts and get on with playing. The big stat for Wright is that his seasonal win rate is just 53%. His seasonal average has fallen to 93.71. When he last won the World Championship it was 99.26.
2024 PDC World Championship Odds – 23.00
5) Gerwyn Price 8-2 1/1/1/3/2/SF/W/QF/QF
Price was a bit of a late bloomer at the World Championships but his record in the last four years is impressive. His recent form, on the other hand, is a bit of a head scratcher.
His win rate in 2023 is 73%. He has won two Euro Tour events in 2023 and three Players Championship qualifiers, but his record in the big majors has been less impressive.
Runner up in the Premier League, runner up in the Grand Prix, quarter finalist in the World Championship and European Championship, but losing his second round at the UK Open, Matchplay, Grand Slam and Players Championship.
His last match saw him average 85.92 to Kim Huybrechts and lose 1-6. Which Gerwyn Price will show up at Ally Pally? The one that hit ton plus averages for fun, or the frustrated one who can just play flat.
Of his last ten matches, he has hit five big ton plus averages, but three sub 94s. He has the game to go all the way, is a leading contender, but is he losing a bit of confidence?
2024 PDC World Championship Odds – 6.50
6) Nathan Aspinall 3-7 SF/SF/3/3/3
The Asp is very hard to fancy given that his recent form is poor. That form may not be as poor as that sounds, he has played well and lost matches, but his inconsistency could make it hard for him to have a long run.
He is a major winner in 2023 having won the World Matchplay in July, but losing ten of his last thirteen matches is poor by anyone’s standards. His seasonal win rate is just 55%, down from 71% this time last year.
2024 PDC World Championship Odds – 34.00
7) Danny Noppert 8-2 2/3/3/3/3
Noppert withdrew from the Players Championship Finals as his partner was due to give birth to their second child. He had been in decent form so it was unfortunate timing.
Noppert has won eight of his last ten matches but scratch the surface of the bare results and seven of those ten matches saw sub 91 averages. He had been picking up plenty of wins in Players Championship events, winning PC22 in September, the quarter finals of PC25 and PC30. There was also a run to the semi-final of the European Championship.
His tournament record is not great and it is one thing winning with your B game in best of eleven leg matches, and another in longer matches on the game’s biggest stage. He may get a ‘Nappy Factor’ boost but at this moment, I’m not even sure if the birth has happened.
2024 PDC World Championship Odds – 81.00
8) Rob Cross 6-4 W/4/2/2/4/4
Voltage won the Championship on his debut in 2018 but he came to Ally Pally in fine form having been runner up at the European Championship, semi-finalist in the Grand Slam and runner up at the Players Championship Finals. Since than he has not progressed beyond the fourth round.
His recent form is six wins from his last ten matches and he was runner up at the Grand Slam before going out in the second round of the Players Championship Finals.
He is one of the most consistent players scoring wise for the last two or three months and that kind of level should serve him well in the longer matches. He has a good draw in the top quarter and I expect a good run.
2024 PDC World Championship Odds – 17.00
9) Jonny Clayton – 4-6 2/1/2/3/3/4/QF
Ever since reaching the final of the World Matchplay followed by the passing of his father, Jonny Clayton’s form has dropped off. He says he is still struggling to get to grips with things but he knows he has to get on with the job, but perhaps he is finding keeping his mind on that job quite difficult.
He has lost six of his last ten matches, went out in the first round of the Grand Prix, first round of the European Championship, the group stage of the Grand Slam and the second round of the Players Championship Finals.
2024 PDC World Championship Odds – 51.00
10) Damon Heta – 7-3 2/1/3/3
Mr. Quarter Final continues to have good runs in just about everything he plays in. He has reached three ranking major quarter finals in 2023, four Euro Tour quarter finals and four semis.
Heta is a good player to back in matches up to the point of the quarter finals, but for tournament betting, not so good. He has a 2023 win rate of 69% and won two Players Championship events, but with a win rate nudging 70%, you’d expect more Ws in his timeline.
Another good run but coming up just a bit short again? It would be no surprise.
2024 PDC World Championship Odds – 81.00
11) Dave Chisnall – 7-3 3/3/1/2/3/QF/1/QF/3/SF/3/3
Chizzy has managed two quarter finals from his previous twelve World Championships and remains the ‘best player never to have won a major’. Another year has passed with that unwanted tag, despite Chisnall having a good season.
Chizzy won three Euro Tour titles and two Players Championship events, but his form in the majors was very poor, winning one match at the World Championship, one match at the Masters and two at the Players Championship Finals. Otherwise, he fell at the first fence every time. He remains very hard to fancy on TV.
2024 PDC World Championship Odds – 51.00
12) Dirk van Duijvenbode – 3-7 1/QF/4/4
It has been a season of two halves for Dirk. He won PC4 in February, PC6 in March and PC10 in April. There were two Euro Tour finals as well but his season was rocked by a knee injury when leaping about like a loon at ET6.
He had to play with a knee brace for a while but he did make the final of ET 9 in July, losing 7-8 to Luke Humphries. He choked badly in that final and it was worse than any knee injury. His confidence took a big hit and his form tailed off.
Last month he turned up sporting a shoulder support to try and help with another injury. This was much more serious than the knee injury and his form took a big nosedive.
Lost 7 of last 10
He has lost seven of his last ten matches. He lost in the first round of the Grand Prix, the European Championship, the group stage of the Grand Slam and the Players Championship finals. Dirk was a player who is easily frustrated at the best of times, but now that he physically can’t throw properly, any semblance of form has disappeared.
I would doubt he has been ‘fixed’ in the last two weeks but he was playing an exhibition without the shoulder support, so he may be fitter for this. If not, just like the last four majors, he is turning up to collect the first round losers prize money.
2024 PDC World Championship Odds – 101.00
13) James Wade – 7-3 1/1/3/QF/SF/QF/2/SF/SF/QF/2/QF/QF/1/4/3/3/QF/2
It has been a season of two halves for Wade as well. He did very little in the first half, losing his opening matches at the World Championship, UK Open, Matchplay and Grand Prix. That dropped him out of the top 16 in the world rankings.
That seemed to get his attention and since then, he has been runner up in the European Championships, a Grand Slam semi-finalist and a Players Championship quarter-finalist.
He has won seven of his last ten matches and has a seasonal win rate of 65%. Wade has reached four World Championship semi-finals in his nineteen appearances, but only one in the last ten years.
Wade has made his fortune by being around the top of the rankings for a very long time, but is he now just being outgunned by too many players? He has upped his seasonal average to 94.55 which is competitive, but the Big Beasts are nearer 99.00.
2024 PDC World Championship Odds – 51.00
14) Joe Cullen – 2-8 1/1/1/1/1/1/2/1/2/2/4/3/4
There are two things against Cullen’s chances. His current form, and his tournament form. Cullen has lost eight of his last ten matches, averaging sub 90 in six of them.
His record at Ally Pally was stunningly poor, losing five consecutive last 64 stage matches, but in 2017 he did win one, before losing his next four.
Cullen reached the last 16 stage in 2020, as he did again last year. All in in all he has played nineteen and won just seven matches. To put a more positive spin on it, he has won five of his last eight, but it is still a pretty poor record.
2024 PDC World Championship Odds – 81.00
15) Dimitri van den Bergh – 4-6 2/1/QF/3/QF/4/2/SF
Van den Bergh has a decent tournament record but his recent form is not good, losing six of his last ten. His scoring has been well shy of where it should be.
Outside of World Series events he hasn’t had much in the way of long runs since a Players Championship semi-final in April. On TV, only the UK Open Semi-final back in March stands out since he made the semi-final here last year.
2024 PDC World Championship Odds – 81.00
16) Ross Smith – 6-4 1/2/1/2/3/3
It has been a frustrating season for Smith. He won the European Championship last year but didn’t make much impression in the majors this season. He is one of the heavier scorers in the game, and the biggest 180 hitter over the last 12 months.
Smith won PC5 back in March but didn’t do much else, until winning PC28 in October. He definitely has the potential to have a good run, but he doesn’t have much major pedigree outside of the 2022 European Championship title.
2024 PDC World Championship Odds – 81.00
17) Chris Dobey – 5-5 2/1/4/4/3/3/QF
Dobey is having a financially successful season. It started with a quarter final at the World Championship, winning the Masters at the end of January and being selected for the Premier League as a result.
He then embarked on a mad schedule of playing the usual Players Championship events, the Premier League, Euro Tour qualifiers and Euro Tour events. It was a lot of travelling never mind a lot of playing.
His game held up well enough but while he kept on having good runs in tournaments, he kept on losing quarter finals. He had six tournament quarter final defeats after the end of the Premier League.
Four ranking major quarter finals and a non-ranking TV tournament win is still pretty good going, and Chris Dobey will end the season with his highest ever world ranking, but his career record is very light on tournament wins, just two in his eight years with a tour card.
Another quarter final appearance would be no surprise, but winning the title certainly would.
2024 PDC World Championship Odds – 71.00
18) Stephen Bunting – 7-3 QF/2/1/1/2/4/SF/2/QF
Bunting has had a similar sort of season to Dobey, certainly in the second half of it. He started the year by reaching the quarter final of the World Championship and had some decent runs in Europe and in the Players Championship, but when he switched to a heavier dart his form picked up.
There was a Euro Tour final, a Players Championship semi-final, the Grand Slam semi-final and Players Championship Finals quarter final. All good ranking money landed but again, like Chris Dobey, there is a lack of tournament wins.
He has now played in 61 ranking majors in the PDC. He has reached eight quarter finals and five semi-finals. Again, like Dobey, there is a lack of tournament wins. Another decent run is almost likely, his form remains good with seven wins from his last ten matches, but winning the title? That would be a surprise.
2024 PDC World Championship Odds – 41.00
19) Ryan Searle – 7-3 4/3/4/4/3
Heavy Metal has won seven of his last ten matches and is playing some nice stuff. He won the first Players Championship event of the season, was runner up in PC4 & 6, and had a couple of rare good runs on the Euro Tour, reaching a semi and a quarter final. That was all before the end of April.
He then played very little in the midseason but reached the quarter final of the Matchplay in July. In the Autumn he had a couple of Players Championship quarter finals but overall, it has been a quiet season.
His record in the majors is nothing great with one final in 2021 and a couple more quarter finals. He is a better floor player than stage player, but he was playing some good darts at the Grand Slam and Players Championship. Another 3rd or 4th round exit?
2024 PDC World Championship Odds – 101.00
20) Andrew Gilding – 3-7 1/2/2/2
Gilding is enjoying his best ever season, both ranking wise and financially. He won the UK Open back in March and reached the Grand Prix quarter final.
However, his recent poor is not good and he has never gone beyond the second round in the World Championship. If he was in better form, he might have bettered that, but I expect a relatively early exit.
2024 PDC World Championship Odds – 301.00
21) Gary Anderson – 4-6 2/F/QF/3/3/W/W/RU/QF/SF/4/RU/SF/3
What to make of the chances of Gary Anderson? He remains one of the Ally Pally specialists. A two time winner, three time runner up and made at least the quarter finals in nine of his fourteen appearances. He is 14-0 in his opening matches.
Anderson has also enjoyed a season of improvement, raising his seasonal average to 98.72, up from 95.94 in 2022. His 12 month average is bettered by no one.
However, his recent form is not good, losing six of his last ten matches. His performances in the Majors in 2023 has been disappointing. The highlights were a quarter final in the Grand Slam and reaching the sixth round of the UK Open. Outside of those, Anderson failed to get beyond the third round in the others.
Practice Doesn’t Make Perfect
Anderson makes a point of saying that he doesn’t practice much, he does a bit with Ryan Searle and Searle says that Anderson basically kicks his arse, but he is not as fully committed than say Luke Humphries, or even MVG. He is happier at home with his fishing business.
However, this is the World Championship and there is nothing more he would like to do than win it for a third time, just to shut up his perceived critics.
Perhaps his natural talent is no longer enough. The game is still there but maybe the hunger isn’t. The depth of talent is also very good and he doesn’t have the luxury of playing his way in.
I have backed him a few times in 2023, when his current form was excellent, and he came up short. His current form has not been great and that makes him harder to back, but he does remain a player who has the ability to win it, and he knows how to win it.
2024 PDC World Championship Odds – 15.00
22) Gabriel Clemens – 7-3 2/1/4/3/SF
Clemens remains without a PDC title. He started the year by reaching the semi-final of the World Championship, lost the final of PC3 in February and then had a quiet season until very recently.
Clemens reached the quarter final of the final Euro Tour of the year in October and most recently the semi-final of the Players Championship finals. He played some very nice darts in that tournament and he has been showing many signs of a return to form.
Last year’s semi-finalist warmed up by having his second best ever result in a major a couple of weeks ago. He will be feeling confident returning to Ally Pally and another good run wouldn’t be a surprise, but his performances in finals he has reached doesn’t inspire any confidence that he could do much better than in 2023.
2024 PDC World Championship Odds – 301.00
23) Josh Rock – 7-3 4/
Rock arrived here last year as one of the fancied players, by the deluded. It was his debut season as a tour card holder and while he was making a big impression on the game, he was never going to win the World Championship on debut.
This season has been a bit more under the radar, there are other new kids on the block getting the headlines. Rock lost the final of PC7, was runner up on the Euro Tour and lost the final of PC12. More recently he reached the semi-final of ET11, lost the final of PC25 and reached the quarter final of the Grand Slam. No titles, but four finals and a major quarter finals is still good for a player only in his second season.
Rock has won seven of his last ten matches but there is still a bit too much inconsistency. He has had four sub 92 averages in his last ten to go with the four ton plusses. Rock is hard to call, he could have a decent run, but going all the way? That is very optimistic, and his odds, although better than last year, remain on the short side.
2024 PDC World Championship Odds – 34.00
24) Krzysztof Ratajski – 5-5 1/1/3/QF/2/3
It has been a reasonably successful season for The Polish Eagle. He won on the Euro Tour, won a Players Championship title and reached two other finals.
Most recently he has won five of his last ten and his darts have been a real mixed bag of big ton plus averages, interspersed with a couple of sub 90s.
The 2021 season apart, his form in the TV majors has been poor. With his A game in good shape, he could win a few matches, but his stage form is a bit shy of his floor form.
2024 PDC World Championship Odds – 201.00
25) Jose de Sousa – 3-7 1/1/1/3/3/4
It seems that The Special One’s decline is ongoing. His seasonal average continues to fall and while he still has the odd good run, it looks like it is all a bit joyless. He won the Grand Slam in 2020, was Premier League runner up in 2021 but his other form in the ranking majors is nothing special.
De Sousa’s recent form sees just three wins from his last seven matches and his scoring has been poor. Half of those last ten saw sub 90 averages and just two over 92. An early exit looks likely.
2024 PDC World Championship Odds – 201.00
26) Martin Schindler – 4-6 1/1/1/3
Another season has passed by without his first tournament win. He has had the odd good run as usual but he remains a good player, but a frustrating one. Losing six of his last ten matches is not great and I can’t see him having much joy this time around.
2024 PDC World Championship Odds – 251.00
27) Daryl Gurney – 4-6 2/1/2/QF/2/3/3/QF/3/2
It has been a strange season for Superchin. He has upped his seasonal average by a couple of points, upped his win rate to 64% (his best since 2017), but his best results were a Euro Tour semi-final, a quarter final at the World Matchplay and the semi-final of PC21.
There have been signs of a return to form, but the problem has been stringing wins together. Frustration is hard to shift when the results don’t come. Daryl has decided to have a reset for 2024 and is parting ways with MDA and indeed will no longer be sporting the TXODDS logo.
It was a blast to be involved with a player who won two majors and played in three Premier Leagues. I wish Daryl all the best and maybe a change of scenery will be what he needs.
His recent form sees just four wins from his last ten matches and there is just too much inconsistency to think there will be a decent run here this year.
2024 PDC World Championship Odds – 201.00
28) Brendan Dolan – 6-4 1/2/2/1/2/2/2/1/2/1/QF/2/3/2/3
This will be Dolan’s sixteenth PDC World Championship, a testament to his durability. Outside of his quarter final here in 2019, Dolan hasn’t made too much of an impression on the championship, but he has won his at least a match for four of the last five years.
His recent form sees six wins from his last ten matches and I wouldn’t put it past him to be playing on the other side of Christmas.
2024 PDC World Championship Odds – 401.00
29) Raymond van Barneveld – 5-5 W/3/RU/SF/QF/1/SF/3/SF/SF/SF/QF/2/1/2/3
RVB will be playing his seventeenth PDC World Championship but he is not the player he once was. He has reached the odd quarter final on the pro tour and still averages 93.40, so he may win a match, but maybe not.
2024 PDC World Championship Odds – 201.00
30) Callan Rydz – 4-6 2/2/QF/2
It has been a difficult year for Rydz and his recent form, losing six of his last ten matches, reflects that. He is playing with a great deal of inconsistency and frustration. He has won just one match on TV this season and is unlikely to make much of an impression in this event.
2024 PDC World Championship Odds – 751.00
31) Kim Huybrechts – 6-4 QF/1/2/3/1/3/1/3/4/3/3/4
Huybrechts still has his moments, such as beating Gerwyn Price 6-1 in the Players Championship finals, or winning PC3 back in February. Consistency is not a big part of his game but he has a reasonable record of winning a few matches at Ally Pally.
He has only made one ranking final in his career and that was back in 2012, and there is nothing to suggest that he will add to that in 2024.
2024 PDC World Championship Odds – 401.00
32) Madars Razma – 3-7 1/2/1/2
Razma is a mercurial player, capable of great performances but rarely stringing too many together. He averaged 104 when taking MVG to a deciding leg at this year’s European Championship and that was a match he should have won. He is too inconsistent to think he can much of a run, as seasonal win rate of just 48% suggests.
2024 PDC World Championship Odds – 751.00
Other Players of Note
History tells us that by looking at the top thirty two seeds, we have already gone too far down the list in terms of looking for possible finalists, but there are a few names that will no doubt be bandied about as live outsiders. It is likely to be delusional to entertain the idea, but I’ll have a look for the ultra-optimists.
Gian van Veen
There can be few bigger fans of Gian than myself, but he won’t be winning this. He is a huge talent but you do need a reasonable degree of experience in the major tournaments to be able to play your best on the biggest stage of all. It is a big deal.
Some inexperienced players can just see it as a learning process to be able to relax and play. Most get a bit tight and can struggle. Van Veen can point to the fact that he reached the semi-final of the European Championship a few weeks ago and followed that up with a Players Championship quarter final and a semi-final.
High Expectations
However, that may have raised his expectations a little too high as he struggled in the Grand Slam, losing all three matches in the group stage. He was then beaten heavily by Stephen Bunting in the second round of the Players Championship finals and lost the World Youth Championship 4-6 to Luke Littler.
That was a better performance but the fact remains that Van Veen has lost six of his last seven matches and at times, his body language told you that he was getting a bit ahead of himself, expecting wins to come, and just looking a bit frustrated.
Experience is the last thing to come to these great young players and patience is a virtue rarely seen in the young. I won’t rule out Gian having a good run and having a couple of weeks off before the Championships may have helped him manage his expectations. His draw is not the best either.
2024 PDC World Championship Odds – 67.00
Luke Littler
Last year it was Josh Rock who was the new kid on the block who was going to shake up the darting world at ridiculously short odds. This year it is the new World Youth Champion, Luke Littler.
Luke has been on the radar for a few years, despite him still being just sixteen. He is the best junior player in the world, no mistake about that, but he does not have a tour card, and has very little stage experience, never mind the biggest stage there is.
He played in the WDF World Championship in 2022 and lost in the third round, as he did at the World Masters, the two biggest tournaments under that umbrella.
Littler’s seasonal average is 92.2, exactly the Pro Tour average, and that tells us he will be very good, but right now he is unlikely to have a really long run. Perhaps the early rounds are doable, but the latter stages are a whole different kettle of fish.
Like Gian Van Veen, Littler is one for the future, but look how long it took another World Youth Champion, Luke Humphries, to reach his full potential. Humphries made the quarter finals here in 2019, the same year he won the World Youth’s. If Littler can match that, he will have done well.
2024 PDC World Championship Odds – 67.00
It is worth remembering that Michael van Gerwen is the youngest winner of the World Championship at the age of 24, and for the record, Phil Taylor the oldest at 52.
Summary
Last year we were on Michael Smith to win the World Championship because he ticked all the right boxes. A repeat of that exercise will hopefully find the Bullseye again.
The last eleven winners had won at least one ranking event in the previous twelve months and of those eleven, nine had won at least one ranking major in the previous twelve months.
Of this year’s ranked majors we have just five different winners. Michael Smith, Andrew Gilding, Nathan Aspinall, Peter Wright and Luke Humphries (x3). Gerwyn Price has not won a ranking major in the last twenty five months.
Of those five players, all are ranked in the top 20 of the World rankings. Andrew Gilding is the lowest ranked at 20, and the rest are ranked in the top 6. In the last fifteen years, only two winners have been ranked outside of the top 5.
Top 5
The top five players in the World Rankings are Michael Smith (1), Michael van Gerwen (2), Luke Humphries (3), Peter Wright (4) and Gerwyn Price (5). Nathan Aspinall just misses out at number 6.
We now have three players who have won a ranking event in the last twelve months, have won a ranking major in the last twelve months and are ranked in the top five in the world rankings.
Michael Smith is the defending champion. Outside of fourteen time World Champion, Phil Taylor, only Gary Anderson and Adrian Lewis have defended the title. Not even three time winner Michael van Gerwen has successfully defended. Given that his form since switching darts manufacturer has dropped, I will scratch him from the short list.
Wright Off Form
Peter Wright has won two of the last four World Championships, he has won a ranking event, a ranking major in 2023, and is ranked in the top 5. He is now 53 years old and that would make him the oldest World Champion in history. It is also fair to say that his form in 2023 is not that of a potential 2024 World Champion.
His seasonal win rate is just 54%, his seasonal average of 93.62 is bettered by thirty one other players, and his most recent form is confusing at best. Winning the European Championship was a surprise. He can produce surprises and he is not finished yet. Wright is a 23.00 shot to win his third World Championship title, and while I cannot rule him out, neither can I back him.
Cool Hand Ticks The Boxes
Luke Humphries has won three of the seven ranking major championships in 2023. He has won twenty of his last twenty one TV matches and has the highest seasonal win rate of any of the three remaining candidates.
His recent form is the best in the tournament and he is a three time quarter finalist. Luke Humphries is the 4.33 favourite and rightly so. He is one of three players who ticks all the boxes and is clearly playing better than the other two. He is the obvious selection, but the most logical one.
3 points Luke Humphries to win the 2024 PDC World Championship at 4.33 with Boylesports, Betfair, Betfred
Last year we had a nice 15.00 winner on Smith to meet MVG in the final. I have nailed my colours firmly to the Humphries mast and as such, have him to win the bottom half of the draw.
For the top half of the draw I have a short list of six. From Q1 The two Smiths, Michael and Ross, make some appeal, but the very consistent Rob Cross gets the nod. Q2 has no less than three previous World Champions. Gerwyn Price, Peter Wright and Gary Anderson.
Wright is a recent major winner, Price is a bit cold in the majors, as is Gary Anderson. However it is Price and Anderson who are playing a lot better. Anderson has the highest 12 month average in the game and he has also beaten Price in all four of their matches in 2023.
If, and it is a big if, we got a Rob Cross vs. Gary Anderson semi-final, it would be hard to pick a winner, but Anderson is 15-4 with Cross and he would start favourite. Anderson’s world ranking of 21st makes him a statistical outlier to make a final, but he has made six in the last thirteen years, Cross has made one.
1 point Luke Humphries to play Gary Anderson in the final @ 26.00 with Pokerstars
There will be another preview posted on Monday, looking at the many side markets and trying to find a few value bets. There will be daily updates for every day of the Championship, so stay tuned and enjoy what promises to be another fantastic tournament.
