2024 Premier League Darts Outright Betting Preview

Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Premier League Darts outright preview. Check it out below…

Premier League is Back!

Love it, or loathe it, the Premier League is back, and it will once again be played as an eight-player format, which each night being a mini-tournament. Its’s five points for the nightly winner, the runner up three points and the four semi-finalists, two points each.

The league phase consists of sixteen rounds with the top four players going on to play in the play offs in late May.

The lineup is always debateable but the top four in the rankings are automatic selections and the other four are picked by the PDC on the basis of who might sell the most tickets and get the TV viewers tuning in.

Luke Littler was a no brainer from that point of view and clearly the PDC are happy to cash in ASAP. There will be no breaking him in gently and he is a bit of a dark horse on debut.

Peter Wright may be making his Premier League swan song, Rob Cross has suddenly found a new love for the event after being overlooked last year, while Gerwyn Price was a fairly obvious pick, if only to give the Boo Boys something to look forward to.

2024 Premier League Darts: Meet The Players

1 Luke Humphries

The new World Champion and World number one. Humphries has never played an entire PL season but has made two appearances as a ‘contender’ in 2019 and 2020. He has plenty of big match experience and this lack of PL experience won’t be a problem, but the full schedule might be.

He will have to pick and choose his events more carefully than before, maybe missing more Euro Tour events and skipping some Players Championships. Humphries was already doing this last year, which is encouraging.

Having won four of the last five ranking majors, Humphries is very much on the shortlist. This is an event which rewards consistency over a long period of time, and I would say his form in 2023 confirmed that he has a very high level of performance which he can maintain.

His win rate in 2023 was 77% and in 2022 73% and that is what you are looking for in a potential winner.

2 Michael van Gerwen

The seven-time Premier League Champion and two-time runner up. He has won six of the last eight and despite the fact that he is not the player he was, his consistency is still good enough to expect him to reach the play offs as a minimum. He has only failed to do that once in his previous eleven appearances.

However, his seasonal win rate continues to decline. He peaked in 2016 with a remarkable 91% of his matches won that year. It has dropped every year since and in 2023 it was down to 71%, but he still won this last year.

MVG has won the league part of the season in eight of his eleven appearances, but only once in the last four, which highlights the fact that this is no longer an MVG benefit.

3 Michael Smith

After his big breakthrough season in 2022, 2023 was a bit of a disappointment for Smith. He started the year by becoming World Champion but he only made one ranking major semi-final after that. Perhaps now that he is no longer World Champion, he will get a bit more hunger back and want to prove that he will not just be a one-time Champion.

His Premier League record is not great for a player of his calibre. He has played in six previous Premier Leagues but only made the play offs twice, being the runner up in 2018 and he made the play offs last year.

His seasonal win rates are good, but not at the same kind of level of MVG or what Luke Humphries has shown in in the last couple of years. In the last ten years, only twice has Smith had a win rate over 70%. At this level, it is hard to have too many dips in form and still make the play offs.

4 Nathan Aspinall

Ended the 2023 season as the World number 4. That was thanks to the likes of Price and Wright dropping back and the fact that he won the Matchplay. Outside of that win in the summer, The Asp didn’t do an awful lot. His win rate was just 55%, his lowest in the last seven years by some margin.

Aspinall has played in three previous Premier League seasons as well as a contender appearance in 2019. He was runner up to Glen Durrant in 2020, made the play offs in 2021 and finished fifth last year.

That is good tournament form, and he is a player who enjoys playing in the big arenas. However, that must be balanced against that extremely poor win rate of 2023.

5 Gerwyn Price

Price’s role as pantomime villain has impacted on his performances in the Premier League. It was usually a hate fest for him and that is a big handicap, but he did manage to get more of the crowd on his side last year.

He made the effort to be nice to the crowd, not give it the big noise and it helped him reach the play offs for the first time in five appearances. He lost 5-11 to MVG in the final and this is still a box waiting to be ticked.

Price had a win rate of 73% in 2023 and the highest seasonal average (98.68), but it was a disappointing season titles wise. If he can continue to minimise the crowd abuse by being less confrontational, Price can have another good run.

He has had a 70%+ win rate for five of the last six years and that is the kind of consistency required to make the play offs. His form in the last few months is a concern. He just seems to have lost the hunger. The adrenalin is not quite flowing (a deliberate choice?) and maybe that is taking the edge off his game.

6 Rob Cross

Had to wind his neck in a bit after slagging off the PL last year, but now he is back in the fold, making his fifth appearance. Cross was runner up in 2019 and made the play offs in 2018, but his other two PL’s saw him finish ninth.

Cross made one ranking major final in 2023 which is hardly earth shattering, but his form, especially in the latter half of the season was particularly good and very consistent.

His 2023 season win rate was 67% and his scoring at the business end of the season was heavy and consistent. He is in the mix for a playoff place, but he is no stick on to do so.

7 Peter Wright

Snakebite hasn’t been picked for his 2023 form, but he is still considered to be a bit of a box office draw. The fancy pants will only get him so far, however, and most people will have Wright down as more likely to finish last rather than make the play offs.

He has not been a very consistent player for the last couple of years and in 2023 his win rate was just 53%. His scoring in 2023 saw a seasonal average of 93.6 and that is little better than the Pro Tour average.

Wright’s Premier League record is mixed at best. He has played in the last ten Premier Leagues and only made the play offs twice. He was runner up in 2017 and a semi-finalist in 2020. In both those years, his seasonal win rate was 77%.

It is fair to say that he is a shadow of that player now. He manged to pick up just nine points last year, only winning five of his twenty one matches played.

8 Luke Littler

I find it hard to assess Littler’s chances. We had his credentials confirmed by his making the World Championship final at the start of the year. That was backed up by him wining the Bahrain Masters and being runner up in the Dutch Masters. That makes it three senior events played and three finals reached. That is outstanding.

Littler can play as well as any of the other eight players. He was not fazed by playing, big, long matches on the biggest stage of all and he took the whole media storm in his stride. I think we can almost forget that fact that he is still only 17.

Lacks PL Experience

He has the game of a very experienced player, but he doesn’t have the experience of playing in front of huge crowds for fourteen weeks in a row, all over the UK and Europe. The intense schedule will be a test, as will playing against many of the best players in the world for those fourteen weeks.

He will lose matches and the novelty of being the new kid on the block will wear off quickly in this event. Littler will be the crowd favourite, and that will be helpful. So long as he takes the defeats well, then he must be considered as one of the more likely players to make the play offs.

Can He Cope With Losses?

Sometimes just playing well isn’t enough in the PL. The matches are short and playing against top class opposition can mean you can lose with ton plus averages. Coping with a losing run comes with experience, as does managing a schedule.

Littler will want to play in everything. This is his first season on the full tour and to do that with the added burden of a fourteen week Premier League will be tiring. We are going to learn a lot about him in the next four months, and he will learn a lot about playing at the very top level.

MVG won this title on his debut in 2013, so Littler cannot be dismissed for a lack of experience, but Van Gerwen was in his third year on tour by that stage.

Summary

The key to success in the 2024 Premier League darts is playing well and doing so consistently. All the players have dips in form over a four-month period, and those that have the least dips, or still be able to nick the odd win when not at their best, will be rewarded.

For me, there are two players who look nailed on for the playoffs. Michael van Gerwen and Luke Humphries. Van Gerwen’s record speaks for itself, and he is very well equipped to rack up the points needed to make finals night. Topping the table may not be so easy, nor winning the title, but he will be there at the end.

Consistent Cool Hand

Luke Humphries level of consistency over the last couple of years has been outstanding. He is not at the same kind of level as MVG was at his best, but his win rate in 2023 was 77% and 73% in 2022. He looks to be carrying on in same vein in 2024 and so long as being World Champion does not take the edge off his game, like it can do, he should be right in the mix.

Luke Littler is still a bit of an unknown quantity, but what we have seen of him at the senior level more than suggests that he has the game to make the finals night. He is enjoying playing darts more than any other player and he has no scar tissue to put doubts in his mind.

This will be a tough school, but he looks to be an A grade student and will pass with flying colours. I have him making the playoffs.

Who might join those three?

I like the way Rob Cross has been playing for the last year or so. He may not be quite the player he was when he burst onto the scene in 2017, but his win rate in 2023 was 67%, in 2022 68% and in 2021 67%.

It is not as good as Humphries or MVG, but he has been playing consistently well for quite some time and while he is no longer a prolific winner of titles, he is having lots of good runs, and he should rack up a lot of points.

Gerwyn Price has had a win rate of 73% or better for four of the last five years and that sort of record should be rewarded in this format. However, in Price’s case it hasn’t. He did make the final last year, so he may be getting the hang of this marathon event.

Hostile Crowds

Things are more difficult for him because he tends to get a hostile reaction from the crowd week in and week out, with the exception of the night in Cardiff. What worries me more is his form of the last couple of months.

He just looks a bit flat. He is not up for the fight like he used to be. His greatest strength is his competitive nature, and that spirit has dimmed. If he gets his mojo back then he’ll be there or there abouts, but he needs to get a rocket under him as soon as possible.

Smith Off Colour

Of the other three competitors, Michael Smith has been off his A game for months now. His PL record is a little disappointing. He has played in six, reached the play offs twice and been runner up once.

It isn’t a bad record but in four of the six, he has struggled. His win rate in 2023 was 66% but he, like Price, is just missing something in his game. He will need to find that spark to get him back to his best.

Nathan Aspinall is a bit of a mystery. He is a two-time major champion and PL runner up and a semi-finalist from just three appearances. He does enjoy playing on the big stages, but he is not the most consistent of players.

55% Win Rate

His win rate in 2023 was just 55%, in 2022 it was 70% and in 2021 61%. His form since winning the Matchplay in the summer has been indifferent at best and he doesn’t strike me as one of the more likely candidates to make the play offs.

He took a lot of time off last year and has admitted that it didn’t work and a lesson has been learned. It goes to prove that managing a schedule is not easy.

Last of all we have Peter Wright. Odds on to finish last with the bookies and it is easy to see why. His win rate in 2023 was just 53% and he has been on the slide for three years now. Wright came last in 2023 and he has only ever made the play offs twice in ten appearances.

The Premier League can be a very tough environment for a player whose form is in the toilet. Wright has vowed to stick with one set of darts and taken all his trophies out of his practice room to try and reset his game. So far, there are no signs of improvement.

2024 Premier League Darts: Ante Post Selections

It is fair to say that the market is not dripping with value. In the outright winner market, we have Luke Humphries as the 4.00 favourite. Given his successes in 2023, he does look the man to beat, but this is his debut. His schedule is going to be a demanding one and he might get a bit jaded.

The World Championship – Premier League double has only been achieved three times in the last ten years. Anderson in 2015 and MVG in 2017 and 2019. Gerwyn Price had to withdraw in 2021 so had no chance to attempt the double. On the plus side, only Peter Wright failed to make the playoffs as the World Champion since 2014.

MVG Joint 2nd Fav

Michael van Gerwen, the seven-time champion and nine-time finalist is the 4.50 joint second favourite along with Luke Littler and that is hard to argue with. I would be surprised if the winner did not come from those three players.

MVG is going for his second hat trick of PL titles and his record is phenomenal. I suspect the arrival of young Luke Littler and Luke Humphries as the new number 1 could re-energise MVG.

He really had to dig deep to beat Littler in the Dutch Darts Masters final, but he did it and he loved it. A proper rivalry could concentrate his mind, and this is his event. Thanks to the new level of competition, MVG is at backable odds, and I think we will get a good run for our money by backing Mighty Mike.

2024 Premier League Darts Tip: 2 points Michael van Gerwen to win the Premier League @ 4.50 with Betfair, Skybet, Fitzdares, SpreadEx

Rob Cross and Gerwyn Price look to be fighting it out for the final place in the finals. Price’s lack of top form is a bit of a negative, and so is the fact that he does tend to a lot of grief from the crowd. Price did make the final last year, but is he playing as well now as he was twelve months ago? I think not.

Rob Cross may not be a big tournament winning machine anymore, but his game has been in decent shape for quite a while now and that sort of high scoring consistency should be well suited to a tournament played over a period of months.

2024 Premier League Darts Tip: 1 point Rob Cross to reach the semi-finals @ 2.40 with Ladbrokes

I am happy backing Peter Wright to finish last again. He is going into the event in stinking form, and he looks the most likely to finish last, just as he did last year. The other seven players all have something going for them.

Nathan Aspinall is the only player who looks like he could struggle, but at least he has a decent tournament record to draw upon. Sadly, the odds on Sunday were 1.91 and now just 1.67, so the best value has gone, but I will have to accept the lesser odds, which is annoying.

2024 Premier League Darts Tip: 2 points Peter Wright to finish last @ 1.67 with Ladbrokes

Luke Littler has already hit a nine darter in 2024. Given that he should get to play 30+ best of 11 leg matches in the league phase, he has plenty of scope to get another across the next 14 weeks.

He is playing with freedom and a smile on his face, and he looks very capable of delighting the crowd with a nine darter at some stage. He was a 7.00 shot with Fitzdares, but they have closed that market for some reason and I can only see Skybet offering it as a price boost, which means very limited stakes only.

-JamesPunt