2024 Premier League Night 1 Preview & Tips – JP
2024 Premier League Night 1 Preview & Tips
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Premier League Night 1 preview. His outright preview can be viewed here.
So It Begins
And so it begins. Night One of the eight man 16 week Premier League marathon kicks off from the Motorpoint Arena in Cardiff. The one night of the year that Gerwyn Price is not treated like Vincent Price by the crowd.
Price won the night here last year, even overcoming a 110 average by MVG in the quarter final, before going on to beat Aspinall in the final. He lost in the first round here in 2022 but fellow Welshman, Jonny Clayton, made the final where he was beaten by Peter Wright.
Under the old (and better format), Price drew with Daryl Gurney in 2020, beat Michael Smith in 2019 and lost to Anderson in his first season in the PL in 2018.
Peter Wright vs. Rob Cross
My fancy to come last vs. my fancy to make the play offs. Peter Wright has never really thrived in the PL for a player of his standing. He was plumb last in 2023, winning just five matches, and it took him until week six before he got a match win.
Given his form over the last 12 months, it might take him even longer this season. Wright has lost seven of his last ten matches and he picked up just the one win across the two World Series events he played in the last fortnight, and he was lucky to get that.
Rob Cross continues to play at a high level without getting as many wins as he should. He has won six of his last ten but only one from three in 2024. However, he has averaged 98 across those three matches and that will be more than enough, unless Wright suddenly finds his A game.
Puncher’s Chance
This is a first to six leg format, which gives the outsiders a punchers chance, but while they all say there are no easy matches in the PL, the other seven players will see playing Wright as a should/must win match.
Their H2H record is 17-13 to Cross. He won their last match in 2023 7-0, but their other two matches in 2023 required a deciding leg. The close matches were both in January 2023 and Wright’s form has fallen considerably since then. Cross has won their last four in a row and he should win this.
Cross is the 1.36 favourite with Wright the drifting 3.30 outsider. I guess this should be a matter of not if Cross wins, but by what margin.
2024 Premier League Night 1 Tip: 1 point Rob Cross to win -2.5 legs @ 2.05 Ladbrokes, Betfred, Hills
Gerwyn Price vs. Nathan Aspinall
The home crowd favourite against a player who professes to love playing ‘Gezzy.’ Their H2H record is 17-11 to Price and he has won their last five in a row. He won them all easily with a cumulative score of 34-16. In last year’s PL it was 4-2.
Neither player is at the top of their form with Price winning six of his last ten, Aspinall losing six of his. The Asp has lost five of his last six matches but he has played better than that sounds. Yes, half have seen sub 91 averages, but the other three saw two 100+ and a 97.
Price has home advantage for what that is worth, but I guess for him, he can enjoy the experience rather than have to ignore the heckling.
The odds see Price as the 1.40 favourite and Aspinall at 3.20. Recent H2H form and recent form suggests that Price wins, but he hasn’t really been scoring that well. He has only had two 95 plus averages in his last ten, which means he is playing below his 12 month average of 98.6.
Nerves
First night nerves and the pressure of home crowd expectations might get to Price and I feel that this game can be closer than the odds suggest. Price deserves to be made favourite, but if he doesn’t fire and Aspinall has one of his good games, a 50/50 chance, then The Asp can win.
These two played in the opening night last year, in Belfast, and Aspinall won 6-4. It was an OK game but Price only averaged 91. Price lost to Wade here on the opening night of the 2022 season, so he hasn’t started his campaigns well under the new 8 man format.
I will split a point on two decent priced bets.
2024 Premier League Night 1 Tip: 0.5 point Nathan Aspinall to win @ 3.20 with Betvictor
2024 Premier League Night 1 Tip: 0.5 Aspinall to win 6-4 @ 10.00 generally available
Michael van Gerwen vs. Michael Smith
These two played on last year’s opening night and it was MVG who ran out the 6-3 winner. Van Gerwen is in better form having just won the Dutch Darts Masters and eight of his last ten matches.
Smith, who will be sporting a very natty, crowd pleasing shirt, has lost five of his last ten matches, one of which was a 6-7 loss to MVG in Bahrain.
Michael van Gerwen has won their last three in a row and in last year’s PL it was 3-2 to MVG. In 2022 it was 5-2 to Van Gerwen in the first of these eight man mini tournament format.
Michael van Gerwen is the 1.44 favourite with Smith 2.80. I’ll go for a small correct score.
2024 Premier League Night 1 Tip: 0.5 point MVG to win 6-4 @ 6.25 with Unibet
Luke Littler vs. Luke Humphries
Seconds out, round three. This will be their third match in 2024 and so far, it is 1-1. Humphries has won eight of his last ten matches (one of his last three) and he continues to play well. His World Series’ performances were OK, but he will need to do better tonight.
Littler has also won eight of his last ten matches and it will be interesting to see how he reacts to what will be an electric reaction from a huge crowd. He is loving life on the Senior tour, taking it in his stride. I don’t expect anything other than a high 90s or ton plus average from him.
They played in the Netherlands last weekend with Littler winning 6-5, averaging a fraction under 98. Humphries only averaged just shy of 93 and he can do better than that.
Luke Humphries is the 1.91 favourite with Littler a best priced 2.00, but most firms have this has a 1.91 coin toss. I would hope for, and expect, another close match.
