2024 Premier League Night 10 Betting Preview – JP
2024 Premier League Night 10 Preview & Tips
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Premier League Night 10 preview.
Profitable Night 9
Night 9 in Belfast was a good night betting wise, with three out of four winners and a 4.15 point profit. That takes us to the giddy heights of +2.25 points for the tournament to date. Not quite enough for a deposit on the yacht, but better than a poke in the eye with a stick.
Manchester is the venue for Night 10, home advantage for Stockport’s Nathan Aspinall and pretty close to home for Luke Littler and Michael Smith. Indeed, it was Smith who won in Manchester last year.
There are still seven nights to go, including tonight, so there is plenty of time for things to change, but it does look like Gerwyn Price and Rob Cross need to start getting some runs going. Peter Wright has picked up four points in the last three weeks but he is still well off the playoff places.
Nathan Aspinall vs. Rob Cross
Aspinall will be buzzing to play in front of a ‘home crowd’. It didn’t do him any good last year, when he lost 3-6 to Michael Smith in the first round.
The Asp has good momentum coming into this, picking up all of his 16 points in the last six weeks, reaching four finals and winning one. He has only come up dry once in the last six weeks.
His overall form sees six wins from his last ten matches. He is still lacking the consistency to win a Euro Tour event for example, but he is certainly capable of winning one of these three match mini tournaments.
Cross Losing Consistency
Rob Cross, so consistent scoring wise for so long, seems to be losing some of that form. He has lost five of his last ten, and five of his last six. Two of his last three matches, including his match with Peter Wright last week, were poor, and he hasn’t been poor very often in recent months.
Voltage may just be getting frustrated at his lack of wins, despite scoring well. He has drawn a blank in the last three weeks and dropped to sixth place. He will be heaping pressure on himself if he doesn’t score for a fourth night.
H2H Close
Their H2H record sees four 2024 PL defeats for Cross at the hands of Aspinall, two in the last three weeks. Both required a deciding leg. Overall it is 9-8 to Aspinall, but both players will be very aware that Cross has lost four PL matches to Aspinall already this year.
Three of their four matches this year have been over 9.5 legs and seven of their ten best of eleven leg matches went over 9.5 legs.
Rob Cross is the 1.80 favourite and being backed. I have Aspinall as favourite and over 9.5 legs makes enough appeal.
2024 Premier League Night 10 Tip: 1 point Nathan Aspinall to win @ 2.00 generally available
2024 Premier League Night 10 Tip: 1 point over 9.5 legs @ 1.91 with Boylesports
2024 Premier League Night 10 Tip: 0.5 point Aspinall to win 6-4 @ 7.00 generally available
Luke Littler vs. Michael van Gerwen
It will be interesting to see if MVG is carrying any scar tissue after being made to look very second best on Monday night. He was thrashed 8-1 by Luke Humphries in the final of the German Darts Grand Prix. That was another reminder that these new kids on the block are better than him.
Tonight he faces the other Luke. MVG has a 3-3 H2H record vs. Littler and in the PL, it is 2-2. Littler has won their last two, 6-2 and 6-3. MVG’s two wins were both 6-5. Van Gerwen might just be getting sick of playing Lukes. He has lost twice to Littler in the last three weeks and Humphries on Monday night.
Littler had last weekend off which will have been a nice break while the other players had to go from Belfast to Munich and back to Manchester. Littler will be fresh and raring to go.
First Win For The Nuke
Littler got his first PL nightly win in Belfast last week. It was only a matter of time and he will be none the worse for it. We have seen MVG and Humphries win three in a row, and while Aspinall hasn’t yet followed up his nightly win with another, he has made a habit of making finals. It could be the start of a roll for Littler.
MVG has lost four of his last ten matches, poor form by his standards. Everyone is vulnerable to losing to the in-form Littler, who has won ten of his last twelve matches, including a 6-3 win over MVG last week. MVG is trying to come back from a real kicking on Monday and he is up against it here.
2024 Premier League Night 10 Tip: 1 point Luke Littler to win @ 1.73 generally available
Michael Smith vs. Luke Humphries
Last year’s Manchester winner, Michael Smith, will be hoping that Luke Humphries used up a lot of energy when winning in Munich on Monday.
Humphries played four matches that day and won the lot with scorelines of 6-2, 6-2, 7-3 and 8-1. His averages in those matches were 111.63, 106.94, 99.93 and 112.66 respectively. Needless to say, he was impossible to beat.
Humphries has won eleven of his last twelve matches, including two wins over Smith in the PL, 6-4 and 6-2.
Smith Scoring OK
Michael Smith has won five of his last ten matches but he is scoring better than that sounds. However, he has had some double troubles, not as bad as in the old days, but three of his last ten matches saw checkout rates of 25% and needless to say, he lost those three. Playing at this level, you need to be spot on, especially against a red hot Humphries.
Their career H2H record is 9-6 to Humphries. In this year’s PL, Humphries has beaten Smith 6-3, 6-4 and 6-2. Humphries has won their last five matches, and in their best of eleven leg matches six of the nine played have been under 9.5 legs (and five of their last six).
Well Prepared
Smith has a good record of playing in long quarter finals matches. Of his nine played so far, only one has been under ten legs. That suggests that he prepares well and is not playing his way in.
When these two played in the quarter final in Nottingham, Night 7, Humphries averaged 103, Smith just 90, but the score was 6-4. Smith was totally outplayed, scoring wise and doubling, but Smith still got four legs on the scoreboard.
This might be a bit closer than Humphries’ matches on Monday night. You can back Humphries -1.5 legs at 1.73, but I’ll have a small stake on a correct score.
2024 Premier League Night 10 Tip: 0.5 point Luke Humphries to win 6-4 @ 6.00 generally available
Gerwyn Price vs. Peter Wright
These two last met on Night 7 and it was Wright who was the unlikely 6-5 winner. That was his first win of the league and he picked up another, last week in Belfast, beating Rob Cross 6-3. Cross was poor that night, but Price averaged 103 in defeat in Nottingham.
Overall, Wright’s recent form remains modest, winning five of his last ten matches, but losing five of his last seven. His latest defeat was in Germany on Sunday, going down 4-6 to Gerwyn Price. He is improving, but not at a great pace.
Struggling To Win
Gerwyn Price continues to play very well but continues to struggle to win. He too has lost five of his last ten, despite hitting six ton plus averages and just one sub 97. He is having problems on the doubles and is just missing too many important darts. Price can lose to players scoring worse than him, as Wright did on Night 7.
Their H2H record is 24-14. In 2024, it is 1-1. They have played eight PL matches in this format and it is 4-4. Their last ten matches? 5-5. You have to go back to September 2020 to find the last time either player won back-to-back. Based on this trend, it is Wright’s turn to win.
