2024 Premier League Night 12 Betting Preview – JP
2024 Premier League Night 12 Preview & Tips
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Premier League Night 12 preview.
Night 11
It was a total wipeout last week. Very much a case of one leg out, but it was 4.50 points dropped, taking the tally down to -3.22 points. Familiar territory for the Premier League.
This week’s torture comes from Rotterdam and it’s home advantage for Michael van Gerwen, who bounced back by winning Night 11, ending a run of six weeks with just two points scored. MVG now sits in third place, four points behind Luke Littler in first place and two behind Luke Humphries.
Playoff Battle
At the bottom of the table we have Peter Wright in last place with just four points, Gerwyn Price in seventh on ten points and Rob Cross in sixth on eleven. The battle for the final play off place would now seem to be between Michael Smith on 17 points, and Natah Aspinall on 18.
How the bottom three players perform over the remaining five nights will be interesting. It is no fun being dragged around Europe and the UK every week and getting beaten.
Do those who are effectively out of the running get motivated by trying to win at least some of the nightly prize money? Take professional pride and try win a few matches, or just go through the motions and wait for it all to be over?
Michael Smith vs. Luke Littler
Bully Boy is still very much in contention, despite not playing his best darts. Smith has lost six of his last ten matches and is very inconsistent. He is hitting ton averages and following those up with low 90s or sub 90s. That makes him a very poor player to back, or indeed, oppose.
Luke Littler is enjoying a much lighter schedule than most of the other players. He hasn’t played any Euro Tour darts events for over a month, and while I’m sure he’d rather have been playing, he will not be as travel weary as the rest.
Littler has won seven of his last ten matches, but he lost last week’s final in a very disappointing fashion. It was an 88 average and 3-6 loss to MVG. He had put in some under par performances in PC 6 and PC 7, just looking a bit frustrated, and that reared its head again in that final. He is human, he has poor days, and he can let frustration get in his way.
Smith Needs A Win
Michael Smith could really do with a win here, and there is one reason to think he may get it. He has a winning H2H record against Littler. They have played four times, and Smith has won three, all in the Premier League.
Littler is the 1.44 favourite, Smith 2.90. Despite Smith being inconsistent, I’ll take a chance that he brings something like his A game, and it must be said that Littler hasn’t been totally consistent himself.
2024 Premier League Night 12 Tip: 1 point Michael Smith to win @ 2.90 with Ladbrokes, Betfred
Rob Cross vs. Gerwyn Price
Here we have two of the players who are adrift of the fight for the playoffs. With five nights remaining, both could still make it but in reality, they would need to win at least two nights, and maybe three. Neither look like doing so.
Gerwyn Price is playing well enough to win all five, but there is something missing in his game. It is not scoring ability. His PL average is second only Luke Humphries. It is his competitive nature. His need to win.
That is what marked him out on his rise to the top. He really wanted to win. Now, he looks like he is just going through the motions. Very good motions it must be said, but he isn’t winning titles.
Missed Opportunity
Another opportunity slipped through his fingers at the weekend, losing the final of the International Darts Open to Martin Schindler. That was a title Price had won four times, but he lost to a player winning his first title of any sort at senior level.
He averaged 101.6, but still lost 5-8. Schindler averaged 96.3, but still won, despite being outscored. It is now over six months since Price won a tournament.
Price was interviewed after one of his matches last weekend and casually said that that he was just waiting for the Premier League to be over. Clearly, he is not enjoying the experience, and not for the first time either. Unless he is near the top and in with a chance, he isn’t interested.
Sadly for Price, he is contractually obliged to turn up every Wednesday for press day, Thursday for the darts, and Friday to travel home or to the next tournament.
Cross Struggling
Cross came into the Premier League like consistency on a stick. He was all set up to pick up points each week and glide into the play offs. It started to plan. He was in third place after five weeks, but then the wheels fell off. Just two points for the last six weeks, and none from the last five. He knows that the game is up.
Like Price, Rob Cross is one of the heaviest scorers in the game and has a seasonal average of 97, but he has lost five of his last ten matches and hasn’t won a title since last August. Also like Price, Cross has lost a Euro Tour final in 2024.
Close H2H
Their H2H record is 12-9 to Price and in 2024, 2-1 to Cross. In the 2024 PL, 1-1. They haven’t had many close matches lately. Their last five have been 7-3, 6-1, 6-2, 6-0 and 7-3. Their last match with a deciding leg was back in March 2022. Their two PL matches so far this year have ended 6-2 to Price, and 6-1 to Cross. They were both back in February.
Price is the 1.57 favourite, Cross 2.40. I couldn’t pick the winner here. I have no idea who will be putting a shift in. I would lean towards Cross, but I couldn’t back him. Under 9.5 legs makes some appeal given their recent record.
2024 Premier League Night 12 Tip: 1 point under 9.5 legs @ 1.83 with Betfred, Fitzdares
Peter Wright vs. Nathan Aspinall
The first thing to say is that Peter Wright’s game is back in the toilet. He has won just two of his last ten matches. He has the odd good performance, but he is used to losing.
Aspinall has won six of his last ten matches. He is scoring quite consistently and he has won six of his last eight PL quarter finals.
Their H2H record is 12-6 to Aspinall and 2-0 in 2024, both PL matches, 6-4 and 6-2.
A win here would move Aspinall closer to the playoffs and playing the bottom of the table player is a bit of a must win. Wright’s motivation is just to avoid further embarrassment.
However, there is no pressure on Wright, he knows his chances are purely mathematical. That may allow him to relax and play well, while Aspinall really does need the points.
Aspinall is the 1.55 favourite, but he has covered the -1.5 leg handicap in both their matches so far, and his odds to do so again look fine.
2024 Premier League Night 12 Tip: 1 point Aspinall to win -1.5 legs @ 1.85 with Ladbrokes
Michael van Gerwen vs. Luke Humphries
This is a tricky one. Both players are very likely to qualify for the playoffs, but both would like to win the league table phase. MVG ended a very poor run by winning Night 11, and he celebrated by taking the weekend off, withdrawing from the International Darts Open.
Van Gerwen does manage his schedule well. He makes sure he takes time off, and as he has had a shoulder injury, he is probably right to do so.
Luke Humphries did travel to Eastern Germany for the International Darts Open and may have wished he didn’t. He beat Jose de Sousa 6-2 but lost his third round match, 4-6 to Stephen Bunting. So, he had a couple of days at home before heading off to Rotterdam and the Sindelfingen for more Euro Tour action. Is it all a bit too much?
Tiring Schedule
It is looking like it might be. He has said that the schedule is tiring and his scoring has tailed off a bit. He was playing at a ridiculously good level and that wasn’t going to last forever, but compared to his seasonal average of 100.5, his last six matches saw an average of 94.8.
From hitting ton after ton, Humphries has been hitting mid 90s. It isn’t terrible, but it is a noticeable drop off. That would tie in with him just being a bit jaded.
Michael van Gerwen has won six of his last ten matches but he hasn’t been anywhere near his best. He got very lucky to face a very out of sorts Luke Littler in last week’s final. MVG won 6-3 despite averaging just 90.38. Like Humphries, MVG has been hitting a lot of mid to low 90 averages and isn’t playing with much consistency.
112 Average
These two have met three times in 2024 and Humphries is 2-1. Their last match saw an absolute hammering for MVG, losing the final of ET2 1-8. Humphries averaged 112 in that match and Van Gerwen looked absolutely shell shocked afterwards. In the PL it is 1-1, but that was back in February.
Humphries is the 1.62 favourite, MVG the 2.40 underdog. Neither player is playing near their best recently, which makes this hard to call. I have no idea who will win. MVG makes some appeal at 2.40. He has had a rest while Humphries has been on the hamster wheel of endless travel and playing. Some appeal, but not enough. No bet.
