2024 Premier League Night 13 Betting Preview – JP
2024 Premier League Night 13 Preview & Tips
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Premier League Night 13 preview.
Night 12
After a wipe out on Night 11, we got a full house on Night 12, leaving a tournament balance of +0.33 points. Nosebleed time.
Night 13 comes from Liverpool. We have just four more nights, including this one, before the playoffs. Peter Wright is just going through the contractual obligations of having to turn up. Rob Cross has not won a match for six weeks and is all but out. Much the same is true of Gerwyn Price.
However, the top five are actually pretty close. First placed Luke Humphries is only six points clear of Michael Smith in fifth place, and that is a gap that can be closed. Nothing is settled between the top five.
Luke Littler vs. Gerwyn Price
Littler is tied on 26 points with Humphries, behind only on a large leg difference (+31 vs. +13). Littler has had a few sub-par performances in the last few weeks, losing five of his last ten matches, but four ton plus averages in his last five suggests that his is back on his A game.
Gerwyn Price remains an enigma. His seasonal average is 99.32, but he has not won a title in 2024 and indeed he has gone six months without picking up a trophy. His doubling at vital moments has let him down and while it is not affecting his scoring, it is costing him matches, He has lost four of his last ten matches.
These two have played four times, all in 2024, and Littler is 3-1. In the PL it is 1-1. Littler won their last match, the final of Night 10, 6-3.
Price Playing Well
Price is playing well enough to beat anyone, to win any title, but he isn’t. He is hard to oppose as he is likely to score heavily and create chances. He will start taking them at some point, maybe after the PL has finished.
Littler is the 1.67 favourite, Price 2.30. Those odds look about right to me. I would expect a close match, so long as Price is feeling motivated. I guess he knows his chance of making the play offs has gone and he is just going through the motions, but he may want to improve on that H2H record with Littler.
They are going to meet each other a lot in the coming years, and Price will not want to let Littler have the Indian sign over him.
2024 Premier League Night 13 Tip: 1 point over 9.5 legs @ 2.10 with Betfair
Luke Humphries vs. Nathan Aspinall
The Asp has played himself into contention to make the playoffs. Luke Humphries has regained his position at the top of the table, but he hasn’t made a final in the last four weeks and his recent form sees five defeats from his last ten matches.
His game has become a little inconsistent, but we are talking about a 95 average being his B game. Unfortunately, that B game may not be enough at the top level.
Aspinall says he is putting all his eggs in the PL basket. The next four, and hopefully for him, five weeks will all be about the Premier League. He withdrew from last weekend’s Euro Tour event and he says he won’t play in anything else until the PL is done.
Brave Decision
I like his style. It is quite brave. It also puts a bit of a spotlight on now he plays these remaining four nights. If he falters, he will have lost out on his race in the European Championship rankings. He is currently 21st and the top 32 qualify, so he should be OK, but the higher your ranking, the better your draw. But, at least we know where his head is.
His laser focus paid off last Thursday when Aspinall won Night 12, beating Humphries 6-4 in the semi-final. The Asp has won seven of his last ten and will be fresh, not having travelled to Sindelfingen at the weekend.
Jaded Humphries
Luke Humphries may be thinking of doing something similar. He is a bit jaded after playing a pretty full schedule of Premier League, Euro Tour and Pro Tour events. He did skip four Players Championships a few weeks ago, but this is a frantic part of the season for the PL players.
We have three Euro Tour events back-to-back, right at the business end of the PL. That is a lot of travelling. Trips to Birmingham, then Riesa, back home for a day or two, then off to Rotterdam, then east Germany, back to Liverpool before flying off to Austria for this weekend’s Euro Tour.
Their H2H record is 6-6 and they have met five times already in this year’s PL. Humphries has won three, Aspinall two. Humphries is the 1.44 favourite, Aspinall 3.00.
The value looks to be with Aspinall. He beat Humphries last week and has had a week at home to prepare for this, while Humpries had another weekend on the road. I’ll back The Asp’s approach to pay off.
2024 Premier League Night 13 Tip: 1 point Nathan Aspinall to win @ 3.10 with Hills
Peter Wright vs. Michael van Gerwen
With Peter Wright’s form in tatters, we are left with MVG being the 1.22 favourite. Wright has lost nine of his last ten matches, MVG has won seven of his.
This should be another no contest, but it is a short format game and Wright has hit a 103 and a 109 average in those last ten matches.
Their H2H record is 75-27 to MVG, but it is Wright who has won their last two, both 6-4. They have met just once in this year’s PL, MVG winning 6-2 back in February.
MVG is not in great form himself. He was won seven of his last ten, but his averages have been below his seasonal average of 97.11 in seven of those ten. There are more low to mid 90’s than 97+ and only one ton plus. There is a lot of B game on show.
Upset On The Cards?
That may very well be enough to beat Wright, but Snakey would love nothing more than to rain on someone’s parade in these last four weeks, just to remind everyone that he used to be a great player.
At his stage last year, Wright was bottom of the league and had been since Night 3, but he beat …MVG 6-3 on Night 13. Darts ja vu? MVG is under some pressure after all. He is not nailed on for the playoffs, and he has lost six of his last eight quarter finals. I will take a minimum stake tilt at the outsider, mad as it probably is.
2024 Premier League Night 13 Tip: 0.5 Peter Wright to win @ 4.50 with Betfair, Livescorebet, BET365 (5.00 Betfair Excange)
Michael Smith vs. Rob Cross
Rob Cross has hit the buffers in the PL. Six consecutive quarter final defeats and he sits in seventh place. A solid if unspectacular first six weeks saw him sitting fourth, but he has been in freefall ever since.
His overall form sees five wins from his last ten. He made the semi-final in Europe last weekend and while his consistent scoring has dropped off, he still hits plenty of big averages. Cross should just be playing out these last four weeks, using them as quality practice against the top players. A good player like Cross, with the pressure off, could do some damage.
Digging In
Michael Smith has dug in and kept himself in the frame for the playoffs. He is just two points outside of the playoff places and with four weeks to go, he will fancy his chances.
In the last seven PL nights, Smith has made three finals and two semi-finals. His overall form mirrors Cross’. He has lost five of his last ten, is scoring well in most matches, but the consistency is not there.
Cross is a bit of a bogeyman for Smith, He has won nineteen of their twenty five matches and their only one this year, a 6-4 win on Night 3. Smith is the marginal 1.85 favourite, while Cross is being backed as the 2.00 outsider.
These two have only played four best of eleven leg matches in the last four years, which is a surprise. All of them were over 9.5 legs.
