2024 Premier League Night 15 Preview & Tips – JP
2024 Premier League Night 15 Preview & Tips
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Premier League Night 15 preview.
Night 14
The penultimate night of the league stage. Night 14 saw Gerwyn Price withdraw due to a back problem and he is now officially eliminated. That also meant that Luke Humphries got a walk over into the semi-final and a confirmed place in the playoffs.
That leaves two playoff places up for grabs and four players trying to take their place at the O2 in London, and a chance to win the £275000 first prize.
In reality, Rob Cross, on seventeen points and seven off Michael van Gerwen in fourth place, is only mathematically in with a chance. There is only three points between Nathan Aspinall in third place, and Michael Smith in fifth. So we have some crucial matches to be played on Night 15.
Full House
Night 14 gave us three wins from three bets and one non runner. It was a mighty +3.32 profit on the night, leaving the running tally at +5.35.
Whether we will have all four quarter finals tonight is open to question. Gerwyn Price hasn’t played any darts since 25th April, Night 13. He withdrew from the Euro Tour event the following weekend and also withdrew from this week’s Players Championship events in Germany.
If he wasn’t fit for Monday and Tuesday, is he suddenly going to be for Thursday? He is free to withdraw from the Players Championships, but he is contracted to play in the PL. I would guess a medical reason gets him off the hook, but he will then have to miss this weekend’s Baltic Darts Open.
Michael van Gerwen vs. Gerwyn Price
With Price now eliminated, and injured, why would he want to travel up to Leeds and play? I am sure there will be some pressure on him to play, there are thousands of paying punters expecting four quarter finals after all, but there is no logical reason for him to turn up.
It means MVG could get a free pass into the semi-finals and two points in the bag. It is a bit unfair on the other two players trying to make the play offs.
I would have thought that, as a bit of contingency planning for injured players not turning up, the PDC would have a few players on speed dial, ready to step in and give the playing fans something like what they paid for? It’s not rocket science.
Anyway, I’m not wasting time previewing a match that looks unlikely to happen.
2024 Premier League Night 15 Tip: No Bet
Luke Littler vs. Peter Wright
I am in full moan mode today. Yes, the PL will throw up dead rubbers at this point in the season, but we already know that we will have this match again in next Thursday’s quarter final. Still, I can just cut and paste this for next week, so it is a win of sorts.
There is not much to say about the form player in the league playing the worst player in the league. This is Man City vs. Sheffield Utd. What’s the point?
Littler has already qualified, there is no longer a bonus for topping the table, but the league winner gets to play the player finishing fourth, an easier job in theory.
Snakebite Out Of Form
Peter Wright travelled to Germany for the Players Championship, unlike Luke Littler, but it was a bit of a waste of time. He lost in the first round of PC9 to Ian White, but he did win two matches in PC10. That means he has won just three of his last ten matches. Luke Littler has won his last twelve in a row.
For those that like to clutch at straws, the last time these two played, the match was very good, and very close. Littler won 6-5 with both players averaging over 103. That is the only time they have met.
Wright can put in the odd very good performance. In his last 50 matches he has hit six ton plus averages, but still lost three of them. In his last 50 matches, Littler has hit 25 ton plus averages, winning twenty two.
Littler Short Odds
Littler is the 1.17 favourite, Wright a 5.50 shot. I can’t get too juiced up for this one. I suspect Wright will do better than most expect. He loses a lot of matches, but he hasn’t been whitewashed in a best of eleven leg match since last October.
In his losing quarter final matches, Wright has averaged 3.4 legs. Seven of his ten losing quarter finals have seen over 8.5 legs, including his only match against Littler.
2024 Premier League Night 15 Tip: 1 point over 8.5 legs @ 1.75 with Fitzdares
Luke Humphries vs. Rob Cross
Cross is all but done, but he has been for a week or two, certainly in his own head. That didn’t stop him making the final last week and he did say that he may as well turn up and try and win the nightly bonus of £10000.
Cross has won six of his last ten matches, having not travelled to Germany for the Players Championship events on Monday and Tuesday.
Luke Humphries also sat out the Players Championships this week and has won just four of his last ten matches. Two of those defeats were to Cross. There was a 2-6 defeat on the Euro Tour three weeks ago, and a 5-6 loss in last week’s semi-final.
H2H Close
They have met four times in 2024 with Cross winning three and overall, he is 10-8 vs. Humphries.
With Humphries not at the top of his game, but safely qualified, this is not a match of any great importance for him. Cross is playing for pride and will be trying to finally win one of these PL nights. He has made the last two finals with only Luke Littler denying him.
2024 Premier League Night 15 Tip: 1 point Rob Cross to win @ 2.60 with Ladbrokes, SpreadEx
Nathan Aspinall vs. Michael Smith
This is the big match of the night. Smith is on the cusp of making the play offs, but if MVG gets a walk over in the opening match, he will have his eyes very much on Aspinall. MVG would have moved ahead of The Asp, leaving Smith three points behind Aspinall.
A win for Smith, and he is right in the mix. Whatever happens, he can’t really afford to lose. Smith won the opening night, but since then he has lost three finals. Just making the final tonight would make it all to play for next Thursday night.
Smith was one of the few PL players to travel to Germany for the Players Championships on Monday and Tuesday. Maybe it was a bit of a risk, to travel there and back before such a crucial night.
PC9 Winner
However, he will be very pleased that he did, after winning PC9 on Monday. He made the last sixteen on Tuesday and he has now won nine of his last ten matches. That will do his confidence a great deal of good.
Nathan Aspinall has taken the decision to play in the PL exclusively for the last few weeks. The opposite strategy to Smith. They did have a week off, which they spent in Vegas together, and perhaps Smith has made the better choice. He got a break but has since picked up another title. He had his cake and ate it.
Aspinall Fresh
Aspinall has won six of his last ten matches, but he has only played six matches in the last month, winning four. Luke Littler has beaten him twice in those last six. Will The Asp be fresh and ready to roar, or will Smith be feeling like a winner after his success in Germany earlier this week?
Their H2H record is 12-11 to Smith, but Aspinall has won their last three, having lost the previous four. They have met twice in this year’s PL, Aspinall winning both, 6-4 and 6-5. Another close one?
