2024 Premier League Night 3 Preview & Tips – JP
2024 Premier League Night 3 Preview & Tips
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Premier League Night 3 preview.
Frustrations
Night two was the usual exercise in frustration betting wise. Aspinall’s great start to his match with MVG meant he won four legs, one more than we needed, and the Smith vs. Price match went one leg too many, but at least Smith did win.
It was a 0.90 point loss, meaning we are -2.35 down so far. Usual fare for this event really. It was a good night of darts though. Five of the seven matches went to a deciding leg and we got no less than seven ton plus averages. More of that would be welcomed. Night three comes from Glasgow. Usually a lively night.
Rob Cross vs. Michael Smith
Rob Cross lost 5-6 to Luke Littler last week and his habit of playing decent stuff but losing continues. That theme was continued at the two Players Championship events earlier this week.
Cross won both his first round matches but lost both his second round matches, both 5-6. Cross has now lost seven of his last ten matches despite hitting decent averages in most of them and only one under 94. His frustration can only be building.
Michael Smith beat Gerwyn Price 6-5 last week in a quality match with both players averaging over the ton. He is not unlike Cross in as much that he is playing well enough but losing too many matches. Smith has lost five of his last ten matches and only won one at the Players Championship events this week.
Cross Dominates H2H
Two players, who are playing quite well, but not at their best and both are frustrated. Their H2H record is very much in Cross’ favour, 18-6. They have not actually played each other very much, only three times in the last three years and just once last year, which Cross won 6-5 on the Euro Tour. They have played five previous Premier League matches and Cross has won four.
The market makes Smith the marginal favourite at 1.90, and Cross 2.00.
Voltage Should Be Fav
Based on their H2H record, I would have Cross shorter and the favourite, but am I going to back a player who has lost seven of his last ten matches? No.
I will take a chance on the match being close. Both Smith and Cross have been involved in plenty of close best of eleven leg matches in 2024.
Cross has played nine and six went over 9.5 legs, Smith has played eleven and seven went over 9.5 legs. They have only played each other in eight best of eleven leg matches in the past, and half of them were over 9.5, including their last three.
2024 Premier League Night 3 Tip: 1 point over 9.5 legs @ 2.10 with Betfair
Michael van Gerwen vs. Peter Wright
‘Home’ ground for Peter Wright tonight. Can he take whatever advantage that may give him? History suggests not. Snakebite has played eight matches here in the PL and only won two. He had two draws and lost four.
Wright actually had a good run at the Players Championships earlier this week, reaching the semi-final on Tuesday. He only averaged 92.61across his six matches, so it wasn’t a massive return to form, but it will not have done his confidence any harm.
Break For MVG
Michael van Gerwen took time off to have a family holiday this week, rather than got to Wigan for the Players Championships. He is in great form, winning eight of his last ten, and it was a decent call to have a little break when he could afford to do so.
MVG won the night last week, beating Littler 6-5 in the final, but he had to survive match darts. He had three ton plus averages, including a 107 when beating Smith 6-4.
This will be their 102nd match and it is MVG who has won 74 of the previous ones, and in 2023 it was 4-2 to him (and 3-1 in the PL).
MVG is the 1.17 favourite to win, Wright the 6.00 outsider.
Will Wright’s little run to a semi-final on Tuesday give him enough confidence to up his game in front of a partisan crowd? It might, but will it raise it enough? Probably not.
Too Strong
MVG is averaging some 12 points more than Wright so far in this year’s PL and he is likely to be too strong. They had five best of eleven leg matches in 2023 and only one went beyond 9.5 legs.
The bookies are wise to this and generally only offering an over/under 8.5 leg market. There is 1.40 available for under 9.5, but that isn’t giving much away.
You have to give MVG a -3.5 leg handicap before we get odds against in that market and this is another match low on value. Hopefully for our ante post bets, MVG wins. No bet.
2024 Premier League Night 3 Tip: No Bet
Nathan Aspinall vs. Luke Humphries
Luke Humphries’ post World Championship hangover continues. He has now lost eight of his eleven matches since winning the big one. He isn’t playing badly, but he is just struggling to get wins.
His confidence has taken a knock and he will be getting a bit frustrated. He won just one match at the Players Championship events this week.
Nathan Aspinall showed some good form last week, well, just long enough to lose our bet, before his game just went to bits against MVG. His form was in and out at the Players Championship this week. The Asp won five of his seven matches but his scoring was erratic, but at least all saw 90+ averages.
Positive Signs For Asp
Aspinall has won six of his last ten matches and while he is far from his best, there are a few positive signs that he is heading in the right direction.
It is Aspinall who leads their H2Hs 4-3, but Humphries won both their matches 6-2 in 2023. The market has Humphries as the 1.36 favourite and Aspinall the 3.25 outsider.
Given that Humphries is struggling to win, and that the PL crowds have not been very kind to him so far, I’m just about happy to risk a point on the Asp.
2024 Premier League Night 3 Tip: 1 point Nathan Aspinall to win @ 3.25 generally available
Gerwyn Price vs. Luke Littler
Price is a hard player to understand at the moment. He is playing well, winning six of his last ten matches, hitting six ton plus averages, but he isn’t dominating like he should.
The Welshman got himself into a bit of bother on Monday at PC1. He won his first two matches, averaging 102 and 111, but went 2-4 down to Brendan Dolan in the third, and then walked out. He said it was too cold to play and went home, withdrawing from the second day. He’ll pick up a fine for that.
PC1 winner
Littler just missed out on winning Night 2 but bounced back by winning PC1 on Monday. He also played in the Euro Tour qualifiers on Wednesday, earning a place in the opening event.
The Nuke has won eight of his last ten matches and the only cause for concern is that he has hit four sub 90 averages in those last ten matches. He has played seventeen matches in the last week, so he is experiencing the full brunt of playing pro tour and Premier League.
These two have already met twice in 2023 and Littler won both, 7-4 and 7-3, in World Series matches.
Luke Littler is the 1.62 favourite and Price 2.40. Littler has not faced Price’s A-game yet and I suspect he might be about to.
Littler may be a bit jaded after playing so many matches in a short time, there have been those four sub 90s and Price was flying on Monday before cold hands gave him a chance to spit the dummy out.
