2024 Premier League Night 6 Preview & Tips – JP
2024 Premier League Night 6 Preview & Tips
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Premier League Night 6 preview.
One leg Away
It was a small -0.67 loss on Night 5 with our tournament total now running at -2.61. Just the usual one leg out from a profitable night. Onto Night 6 and the delights of Brighton, on the English South coast. A home draw for Rob Cross if that counts for much more than the fact that he has little travelling to do.
Luke Humphries vs. Gerwyn Price
Cool Hand lost out on the UK Open title in a deciding leg on Sunday. He said that he had been tired all week and while that was not an excuse, it means that he is struggling with the schedule.
This week he has the usual PL night, before hopping on a plane to Belgium for the opening Euro Tour event of the season. The hamster wheel never stops spinning.
There is not much amiss with his game. His scoring is heavy and consistent by and large. Perhaps it is the fatigue that is just taking the very sharpest of edges off his game.
Gerwyn Price is in a bit of a rut. His form has been off for a few months, in relative terms, and he is getting found out at this level. Price has lost six of his last ten matches, and his last four in a row. In the PL he has lost four of his last five matches, including a 3-6 loss to Humphries on Night 3 in Glasgow.
Their overall H2H record is 9-5 to Price but in the last two years, it is 4-2 to Humphries.
2024 Premier League Night 6 Tip: 1 point Luke Humphries to win @ 1.67 with Ladbrokes
Rob Cross vs. Michael van Gerwen
Van Gerwen’s three week winning streak was ended last Thursday and it was followed up by a loss to Mensur Suljovic at the UK Open. Both were very flat, sub-par performances and begs the question, is MVG a bit jaded the same as Humphries?
He says that it was a shoulder problem which was to blame. He did suffer with a bad shoulder at one point last year, but he said that this was not the same issue and it was just a fleeting problem. He was fine the next day. That still begs the question, why was he so flat versus Suljovic? I will be watching his throw closely.
At least his early UK Open exit meant MVG had a couple of extra days off to recharge his batteries. He has lost four of his last six and he needs to up his game here.
Voltage Flat Spot
Rob Cross hit a real flat spot at the UK Open. He reached the quarter final but went down 7-10 to Ricky Evans. It was terrible display of doubling, from both players, and a very disappointing performance for Cross.
His PL performances have reflected his general play, solid, consistent, but without hitting the heights. He has scored in four of the five nights and was runner up last week, moving him up to third place in the table.
Like MVG, Cross has lost four of his last six matches. He will need to make sure he is a lot better on the doubles than he was on Sunday, obviously.
MVG Leads H2H
Their H2H record is 28-7 to MVG and he has won their last four, including a 6-4 win on Night 3 in Glasgow. They have met twice in 2024 and MVG has won both 6-4.
Van Gerwen is the 1.62 favourite and given his H2H record, that is fair enough. However, consider their PL H2H record. These two have met nine times in the PL, and MVG has won the lot. I have to take Van Gerwen at his word that he is injury free.
2024 Premier League Night 6 Tip: 0.5 point Michael van Gerwen to win 6-4 @ 6.00 generally available
Nathan Aspinall vs. Luke Littler
I do like to back a player who is feeling confident and at the minute that has to include Nathan Aspinall. He has been open about his troubles on and off the board but the last two weeks have seen him being runner up in Night four and winning Night five.
The Asp is ‘buzzing’ and cannot wait to get to Brighton and beat Luke Littler. He has won seven of his last ten matches and he could be a touch of value tonight.
Littler has won six of his last ten matches and hit six ton plus averages. His form hasn’t dropped, but other players are upping their games against him, and he is feeling the heat, no more so than in his last match against The Heat.
UK Open Classic
Damon Heta produced darts of the highest quality to beat Littler in the UK Open. It may be getting to Littler. He is used to winning, to overpowering players and of course he has the odd duff game, but he is generally too strong for his opponents.
Those opponents are now saying, what do I have to lose? and are just going for it. He is bringing the best out of his opposition.
These two have only played once so far in competition, and Littler won that World Series match, hitting a nine darter for good measure. Aspinall averaged 100 that day, but still lost 3-6. He is out for revenge and believes that he will win. It won’t be easy, but he is confident.
Littler is the 1.50 favourite and Aspinall 2.87. I will give a rejuvenated Asp the benefit of the doubt.
2024 Premier League Night 6 Tip: 1 point Nathan Aspinall to win @ 2.87 with Ladbrokes
Michael Smith vs. Peter Wright
An interesting matchup to round off the quarter finals. Michel Smith is not in great form, losing five of his last ten matches (and four of his last five). His scoring has been largely below his usual standard.
In 2024, so far, his win rate is just 52% and his average 93.86. That is still handy, but he is a 97+ player. His doubling can be a problem and it has been just about OK lately.
Smith averaged 101.6 last week but lost 2-6 to Luke Littler. His big problem is that he has won just one match in the last four PL nights. He is still dining out on winning night one, but he has dropped out of the top four in the table.
Winless Snakebite
At the start of this marathon, playing Peter Wright was as close to a free win as a player was going to get, and indeed, Wright has yet to get a single win under his belt.
We are a third of the way through the league stage, and Wright needs to hit form and hold it if he is to make the play offs. He may have already given up and sees the rest of this event as very good training school.
The bad news for Smith is that Wright has started to show a return to form. His best results have been on the floor but it is only a matter of time before he brings it to the stage. His win rate in 2024, is 58%, better than Smith’s, despite only averaging 92.58.
Improving Form
His most recent form sees six wins from his last ten matches. He reached the semi-final of PC4 a couple of weeks ago and he won a couple of matches at the UK Open, including a 10-1 win over Andrew Gilding. He only just lost out to Bunting for a place in the quarter finals.
His confidence is returning and he will win a match in the PL very soon, and this looks like a good chance.
Their H2H record is 53-33 to Wright, but of more relevance, in 2023 it was 5-3 to Wright. Smith won their only 2024 meeting, a 6-1 at the first World Series event. Wright is much improved since then, Smith has dropped off somewhat.
Smith is the 1.60 favourite, with Wright the 2.40 outsider. I make it a lot closer than that and the value looks to be with Wright.
