2024 Premier League Night 7 Preview & Tips – JP
2024 Premier League Night 7 Preview & Tips
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Premier League Night 7 preview.
Frustrating
Night 6 was much the same as every night. Three losers and winner. For the second night running it all came down to Peter Wright missing a dart to win his match at nice odds. It is very annoying. The PL tally now stands at -4.14 points.
Night 7 comes from Nottingham, and it is all starting to feel a bit tired already. Michael van Gerwen is not fine, despite saying he was last week. Peter Wright is scared of winning, Michael Smith’s form has gone AWOL again. Luke Littler continues to win trophies.
Peter Wright vs. Gerwyn Price
As I said above. Peter Wright can’t hit a winning double. He has been out of the top tier for so long, that winning has become alien. His response seems to be to change his darts.
Gerwyn Price continues to play great stuff but not get a lot in return. He must be nearly as frustrated as Wright. Price has lost six of his last ten matches overall and his last four PL matches.
If Price just plays like he has been doing, he wins. However, he has got into the habit of playing well and not winning. I won’t be backing a player who has lost six of his last ten matches at 1.45. Wright has to hit a winning double at some point, but I’m going broke trying to catch that moment. No bet.
2024 Premier League Night 7 Tip: No Bet
Luke Humphries vs. Michael Smith
Luke Humphries got knocked out in the third round in Belgium at the weekend, but he still ended up with a ton plus average, his seventh from his last ten played. He just started too slowly and ran into a player having a rare good day on the Euro tour.
Cool Hand has won eight of his last ten and was very impressive last week, picking up his first nightly win which moved him into second place in the table.
Michael Smith lost 3-6 to Humphries in last week’s final. Smith averaged 100.8, which was only his eighth ton plus average in his last 50 matches. By comparison, Humphries has hit the same number in his last eleven matches.
Luke Humphries is 1.40 to win again. I’ll, take him on the handicap to make it eight wins over Smith in their last ten matches. Humphries has covered the handicap in their last four best of eleven leg matches.
2024 Premier League Night 7 Tip: 2 point Luke Humphries to win -1.5 legs @ 1.80 with Ladbrokes
Michael van Gerwen vs. Luke Littler
MVG’s losing streak has now hit four. Not a lot to be fair, but you have to go back to mid-May 2022 since he last lost four matches in a row. His average across these four matches was 93.4, still better than the tour average, but well shy of the elite level need to win at Premier League level. It doesn’t help that he now faces Luke Littler.
Littler added a first Euro Tour title to his fast growing collection on Sunday, and now he gets a crack at MVG, a player he has lost to three times already this season. Littler did beat MVG in the first World Series event, but since then, Van Gerwen has lifted his game to extract revenge and send a message to the young pretender.
Shoulder Injury
The question is, can MVG do so again? He said he was physically fine this time last week, having shown signs of a shoulder problem the week before. He clearly wasn’t, and he still wasn’t in Belgium at the weekend.
If he turns up fit, than he could well continue his run against Littler, but he will need to be fit, fully fit, and playing his A game. Littler just seems to have an A game right now.
He is not travelling to Germany for the two Players Championship events next week, so he is feeling the schedule, but he has already won so much, he can afford to take time off and still qualify for the big events.
2024 Premier League Night 7 Tip: 1 point Luke Littler to win @ 1.73 generally available
Rob Cross vs. Nathan Aspinall
Rob Cross did very little wrong at the weekend, losing 7-8 to Luke Littler in the Belgian Darts Open final. Cross averaged 108 in the decider and in the first four rounds he went 96, 97, 98 and 97. He also averaged 108 in last week’s semi-final match against Luke Humphries and lost that one as well. Clearly, he takes a bit of beating, even if he is not quite at the same level as Littler and Humphries.
Nathan Aspinall was talking about his confidence being restored after winning Night 5, but that confidence proved to be fragile in Night 6, losing 3-6 to Luke Littler. It was only an 87.13 average and The Asp has now lost his last three matches, two with sub 90 averages.
On the plus side for Aspinall, he has beaten Rob Cross twice already in this year’s PL. Cross managed to miss thirteen doubles in the Night 5 final (13%), but it was Aspinall who missed sixteen doubles on Night 4 and he still won 6-4.
Cross is the 1.57 favourite with Aspinall 2.50. Recent H2H form suggests Aspinall is the value, but Cross is in great form and hard to oppose with a player whose form is only fair at best.
I am happy to leave this alone.
