2024 Qatar GP Preview & Tips

We ended up with a small loss in Vegas but it could have been worse. James Punt is determined to get back into the black this weekend, check out his 2024 Qatar GP betting preview and tips below.

2024 Qatar GP Preview

It was a -2.55 point loss for us in Las Vegas. Ferrari had no answers to the surprise pace of the two Mercedes’, we suffered with two selections being DNFs, Magnussen’s one stop strategy didn’t work and Alonso missed out on a point by a place. We now move across the ocean to Qatar and the exhausted crews will be glad that it will all be over next weekend in Abu Dhabi.

The Lusail International Circuit has played host to just two F1 GPs, the 2021 race and after a break while Qatar hosted the World Cup, F1 returned to Qatar last year. Lewis Hamilton won in 2021, Max Verstappen last year.

Last year was a sprint race format, and we have another this weekend. The extra points up for grabs are going to be very valuable for whoever gets them, as while Verstappen was crowned World Champion in Vegas, the Constructors’ Championship is closer still.

McLaren Lead

McLaren are now just 24 points ahead of Ferrari and 53 ahead of Red Bull. Mercedes have bagged fourth place, Aston Martin have a firm grip on fifth, but there are just four points covering Haas, Alpine and Visa RB in the battle for sixth place.

Last year’s Sprint race weekend saw McLaren taking a 1-2 in the Sprint shootout, Piastri won the sprint race, Verstappen was second and Norris third. For the GP proper, Verstappen started from pole and won the race.

The two McLarens had flopped in the qualifying session on Friday, only making 6th and 10th. It was the two Mercedes who lined up second and third, but they collided with each other in the first corner, ending Hamilton’s race. Russell was knocked down the order but recovered to finish fourth. The two McLarens came through from their lowly grid positions to finish second and third.

The 2024 Qatar GP Circuit

This place was built to host Moto GP races and it is a fast, flowing layout featuring a lot of medium to fast corners. There is just one long straight which has the only DRS zone on it. It is a busy lap with the corners coming up one after the other in quick succession.

The drivers have to work hard and in the hot and humid conditions, fitness is tested. It is a track that encourages close, side by side racing and the left-right combinations offer up opportunities for a switcheroo pass. The pole position driver has won both previous GPs here and the Sprint Race was also won from pole.

Kerbs An Issue

The kerbs caused problems to the tyres last year, to the point that stints were limited to a maximum of 18 laps. This year the kerbs have been modified at seven of the corners. They have been smoothed off to take away the sharp edges which were hurting the tyres.

Some gravel strips have been added to stop drivers from running wide and gaining an advantage, much like the changes to the Red Bull Ring in Austria. Who knows, maybe they will try this in Texas next season.

Breaching track limits has been a big feature of this track and that can cause a few surprises in qualifying.

The track is demanding on the tyres and Pirelli will be bringing their hardest compounds.

The Weather Forecast

After the very cold conditions of Las Vegas, the teams will face much more pleasant conditions this weekend. All three evenings will be dry, around 18 degrees, with humidity at 67%. The humidity can be a problem for the drivers, and it does get more humid in the evening.

2024 Qatar GP Team-by-Team

McLaren 

Crunch time for McLaren, and our bets on Norris to win ‘without Verstappen’, and McLaren to win the Constructors’ Championship. They are still the 1.25 favourites to do it, but they need to nail this weekend. This is a track which should suit their car and, just as importantly, should not be Ferrari friendly. Red Bull should be decent here as well, but they are stymied by having Perez in the second car.

McLaren have gone off the boil in recent races. They have not won any of the last four and they have picked up just one podium. At the same time, Ferrari have won two races and had three other podiums.

Ferrari have made progress, McLaren have stalled. Norris has been nervy and Piastri disappointing. The two McLaren drivers need to be at their very best, max out on the heap of available points, and then hang on in Abu Dhabi.

Vegas was a bit of a perfect storm for McLaren, and back on a track that needs more downforce and features faster, longer corners, they should be right up there.

Ferrari 

Both cars are likely to have the upgraded floor that Sainz tested last weekend, so they are not taking their foot off the gas. Both drivers say that they expect this track to be a difficult one for them, and with a complete lack of slow, short duration corners, it doesn’t look likely to suit them.

Their best result here has been a fifth place for Leclerc last year. Both their drivers expect McLaren to be the team to beat. Let’s hope they are right.

Ferrari did introduce a new front wing in Singapore, aimed at improving high speed corner performance, so that might pay dividends here. We shall have to wait and see by how much.

Skid Blocks

The technical directive regarding the underfloor skid blocks, which was suddenly introduced for the Las Vegas GP, does seem to have been a bigger problem for Ferrari than anyone else. Fred Vasseur’s body language was big tell. He asked for the change to be delayed until next season, as it was already pencilled in for, but Red Bull seemed keen to get it done early.

It was more of an inconvenience to have to do it in Vegas, and it wasn’t the cause of their disappointing performance, that was down to the tyres graining in the cold weather. But, it is likely that it will have had some negative impact on performance, and perhaps more than for Red Bull, Mercedes and McLaren.

Red Bull 

They still have an outside chance of the Constructors’ Championship, but they are the 151.00 outsiders, and with Perez still AWOL, I can’t see it happening. Max getting ahead of a Ferrari or two would be most welcome, however. Verstappen has been 2nd and 1st in the last two races here and now he has a grip on the car again, he shouldn’t be far off.

Mercedes 

When it is cold and dusty, we have the best car. So said Toto Wolff after their 1-2 finish in Vegas. George Russell said something different. He said that the car hates bumps. When it is bumpy, they have to raise the ride height and soften the suspension. That hurts performance.

On a very smooth circuit, ‘we can run it stiff and low, and we fly’. The good news for Mercedes is that this is another very smooth track. There is some truth in what Toto said. Their car doesn’t like things too hot.

If this was day race, they might have a problem, but in the evening, the track temperature should be OK. Maybe not as ideal as Vegas, but it should not be a big problem. It will be interesting to see how they get on. I suspect they will be OK, not as dominant as in Vegas, but they could be the final nail in the Ferrari title hopes coffin.

Merecedes have enjoyed the last two races, especially George Russell. However, they have been two pretty extreme races. The wet, red flagged Sao Paulo race, and the freezing cold Las Vegas GP. This should tend more towards a ‘normal’ race weekend. Where that leaves them re finding their sweet spot remains to be seen, but a top six, top five looks realistic. A podium, optimistic.

Aston Martin 

Diabolical in Las Vegas qualifying, at least Alonso managed to work his way up to eleventh place in the race. The fact remains that the Aston Martin has not scored a point in the last four races. As such, on recent form, they are on par with Sauber, and Alonso concurs. Onto next year, but now that they have all their new toys, and have recruited a lot of big players, 2026 is their new year zero.

Haas 

They got everything right with Hulkenberg last weekend, getting him home in eighth place, and more importantly, ahead of Tsunoda in the VISA RB. Turning Magnussen’s race into a one stop strategy wasn’t so clever. They have scored points in six of the last seven races and who would bet against them adding another point or two this weekend?

Alpine 

It was back to earth with a bump in Vegas. A double podium in Brazil’s crazy race was a real outlier, but there is no doubt that they have got things pointing in the right direction now. Gasly qualified in third place in Vegas, but his power unit blew up in the race.

Ocon was unlucky in qualifying, getting caught out by Colapinto’s crash, but after that he was never up to much. Ocon scored a seventh place here last year, so they should be respected in the very close battle for sixth place.

Visa RB 

Points scored from three of the last four races and still very much in the hunt for sixth place. Tsunoda has raised his game since the arrival of Liam Lawson in the other seat, and he has been a real contender for Q3 and points in the last five races.

Lawson has scored two ninth places, and two sixteenth places. The team really need a couple of big performances from him this weekend, and next. Lawson raced here last year, finishing seventeenth, with Tsunoda fifteenth.

Williams 

It just keeps on going wrong for Williams. The double podium for Alpine in Brazil has doomed them to ninth place, and all these big crashes have depleted the bank account. Any momentum they had built up between the Italian GP and the USA GP has been replaced by endless rebuilds.

Morale must be low, just waiting for the next wipeout. They have suffered eleven total write offs in 2024. One more, and they will only be able to field one car. The spares cupboard is bare again. It just isn’t worth their while trying to run two cars when they are so far off eighth place.

Sauber 

An upgraded floor in Vegas gave Zhou his best qualifying position of the season with thirteenth on the grid, but his eleventh place in the very first race of the season, remains the team’s best showing. It looks like scoring a point just is not going to happen.

2024 Qatar GP Summary

We are now just running down the clock on the longest Formula 1 season in history. The Drivers’ Championship is over, it was in doubt mid-season, but McLaren and Norris underperformed a little too often. Verstappen was able to cash in on the fact that he started well, and McLaren were not really ready at the start of the season….again. Historically, it has been very hard to win a Championship if you start slowly.

We still have the race for the Constructors’ Championship and we are already well invested in that. This weekend is another, long, sprint weekend. McLaren are favourites to win the sprint shootout, the sprint race, qualifying proper and the actual GP. The temptation is to back Norris for the lot and have the rest of the weekend off.

Poor Record

However, his record in the sprint race weekends is poor. He won the shootout in China, won the GP in Miami, and qualifying proper in Texas, but it has been Max Verstappen who had dominated the sprint weekends, with three shootout wins, four sprint race wins, three qualifying proper’s and two of the actual GP’s. Only when he got to Brazil did McLaren look to dominate, but they didn’t get the full house as the GP went tits up in the rain.

Piastri won the Shootout in Brazil, but otherwise he has been not that great. His recent form is disappointing and we have to assume that Norris leads the charge this weekend. This time last year, McLaren topped the Shootout, locking out the front row for the Sprint race, which was won by Piastri from Verstappen and Norris.

It was a Sprint littered by accidents and there were three safety car deployments. These are not as important in the Sprint as there is no mandatory pit stop, so the safety car isn’t chance for a cheap pit stop. There was one notable performance, which was Albon making seventh place from a lowly seventeenth on the grid.

McLaren Qualifying issues

McLaren had problems in the normal qualifying with deleted laps times. Piastri and Norris started sixth and tenth respectively but recovered to finish second and third. They clearly had the best car here last year, but didn’t quite fully cash in. Sounds familiar. Hopefully they can do a proper job this weekend.

With the Drivers’ Championship over, the motivation of Verstappen is worth considering. Last weekend, he just had to finish ahead of Norris and he was the Champion. That is exactly what he did. He was not taking any risks fighting the Ferraris or Mercedes. This weekend? He is just racing for the hell of it. He is a racing driver and they all like to win, so that is what he will do.

Norris Must Deliver

Norris on the other hand is driving for the team. His job is to finish ahead of the Ferraris. If he wins, so much the better, but he will not be taking any risks fighting Verstappen. That may have some influence in the two races this weekend.

Qualifying should be more straightforward, just get as high up the grid as possible. Norris could well get pole, but not win the race if it meant taking risks in a close fight. He, and the team, should be laser focused on beating Ferrari, much more than winning a race. Expect race strategy to be based on this target.

For ante-post betting, I will have four bets. Two on the two qualifying sessions, and both on Norris. He has been fastest in the shootouts just once, but in normal qualifying he has been on pole seven times, and five of the last eight. On this track he should be the man to beat.

2024 Qatar GP Tip: 1 point Lando Norris to win the Shootout @ 3.00 with Ladbrokes, Livescorebet

2024 Qatar GP Tip: 1 point Lando Norris to be the fastest qualifier @ 3.00 with Ladbrokes, Hills, Boylesports, Livescorebet

The other big fight is for sixth place in the Constructors’ Championship, and I will be following that closely this weekend. I prefer betting on drivers that are racing for something important. Half the field are thinking about which beach they are going to after the season ends, the other half are in an intense battle.

Haas, Alpine and Visa RB are in a really close fight for sixth place and millions of dollars in prize money. It is a big deal. Haas are regularly picking up minor points, but very valuable points. Alpine really lucked in at the Sao Paulo GP and their place in the Championship flatters them, but they have made genuine progress and are in the hunt for more points.

Gasly Improving

Ocon is confused as to why his qualifying pace has dropped off. He was bossing Gasly in qualifying for most of the season, but since the US GP it is 3-1 to Gasly, and his average qualifying position is 8.25, compared to Ocon’s 11.75.

Gasly has made Q3 in three of the last four sessions, Ocon once. Gasly was knocked out in Q2 in Sao Paulo, but he was affected by Stroll’s late session crash and red flag. He had out qualified Ocon by ten places in the Shootout.

Gasly has been flying since the Texas upgrade and he is 4-0 in qualifying against one of his big rivals at Haas, Nico Hulkenberg, and 1-1 in the two shootouts. Gasly is 1.50 to outqualify his teammate in the Shootout, but 1.73 to beat Hulkenberg. That is just a straight match bet, so he may not even need to make Q3 to win it.

2024 Qatar GP Tip: 1 point Pierre Gasly to beat Nico Hulkenberg in the Shootout @ 1.73 with Ladbrokes

The final bet for now is on another driver in that fight for sixth in the Constructors’ Championship, Yuki Tsunoda. The Visa RB has dropped in and out of competitiveness during the season, with various upgrades taking longer to get to perform, but they are back in a better place right now.

Tsunoda has an average qualifying place of 8.00 across his last five GP qualifiers and was ninth in the US GP shootout. He looks backable to make Q3 in Friday’s Shootout.

2024 Qatar GP Tip: 1 point Yuki Tsunoda to reach Q3 in the Sprint Shootout: 2.75 with Ladbrokes

There will be an update for Saturday’s Sprint race and qualifying proper, and the usual Race Day Update on Sunday.

-JamesPunt